Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
UK and European gas pushed higher again as Norway's offshore dispute heads into fresh strike mediation, while stalled Doha talks over Iran's frozen assets keep the Strait of Hormuz only partly open. Oil eased regardless on a well-supplied market.
Norway strikeDoha talks stallHormuz stalemateStorage deficitUK heatwave
UK Gas▲
Win-26 front season +2.05% as Norway's offshore strike widens
UK Power▲
Win-26 front season +1.86%, tracking gas higher
EU Storage▼
48.9% full, 13.3pp under the five-year norm
Firm, gas-led upside riskSofter · Firmer
Norway's widening strike and heatwave demand are pushing UK and European gas higher, with power following.
UK gas Win-26
3.71p/kWh
+2.05% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
9.86p/kWh
+1.86% day-on-day
EU gas storage
48.9% full
13.3pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
43.96EUR/MWh
+0.68% on the day
Brent crude
72.28$/bbl
-0.91% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GAS & SUPPLY
Norway's offshore dispute widens further as a new Floating Rigs Agreement goes to mediation today, threatening up to 590 more workers out from Friday and pushing UK and European gas higher again.
2 · GEOPOLITICS
Doha's technical talks turn to Iran's $6bn in frozen assets, but Tehran still won't sit down for a final deal until Hormuz and sanctions steps are honoured.
3 · GENERATION
UK wind is running at just 3.2% of the mix, leaving gas to cover almost 30% of demand as the second summer heatwave persists.
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 30 June 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 9.86 | +1.86% | 3.71 | +2.05% |
| Sum-27 | 7.61 | +1.10% | 2.73 | +0.84% |
| Win-27 | 7.71 | -0.09% | 2.79 | +0.38% |
| Sum-28 | 6.06 | -0.43% | 2.15 | -0.58% |
| Win-28 | 6.98 | +0.39% | 2.43 | -0.73% |
| Sum-29 | 6.11 | -0.05% | 1.97 | +0.15% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 30 June 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)9.90 GW29.9%
Solar8.36 GW25.2%
Interconnectors7.02 GW21.2%
Wind1.06 GW3.2%
Biomass1.98 GW6.0%
Nuclear3.00 GW9.1%
Hydro + pumped0.31 GW0.9%
Other0.65 GW2.0%
As of 1 July 2026, 12:45 BST.
EU gas storage
-13.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 29 June 2026.
The detail
Gas & LNG supplyNorway's dispute enters a new mediation roundA fresh Floating Rigs Agreement dispute goes to mediation today, threatening up to 590 more offshore workers out from Friday if talks fail.
Well Service Agreement strike continues
Around 378 SAFE members remain on strike over the Well Service Agreement, with Offshore Norge's lockout still in force. The action has already idled four mobile rigs, five fixed installations and one intervention vessel.
Floating Rigs Agreement talks today and tomorrow
Government mediation on a separate Floating Rigs Agreement runs today and tomorrow. SAFE has warned 325 workers could walk out and Styrke a further 265 if no deal is reached, with a new strike threatened from Friday 3 July.
Market reaction
UK and European gas Win-26 forward prices rose again on the day, the front season up just over 2%, as the market prices in further Norwegian supply risk on top of continuing heatwave demand.
Geopolitics & supplyDoha talks stall on frozen assets, Hormuz only partly openIndirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha are focused on Iran's $6bn in frozen assets, with Tehran refusing final-deal talks until Hormuz and sanctions steps are honoured.
Technical talks, not negotiations
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha this week, with Iranian technical delegates also present, but Tehran insists there is no direct or high-level meeting planned.
$6bn in frozen assets still withheld
Iran has not received the roughly $6bn in assets held in Qatar that were due for release under the memorandum of understanding. Officials say release will track the progress of talks.
Hormuz recovery stalled
Oman put forward a proposal on Hormuz management on 30 June, but transit remains well below pre-war norms. Maritime trackers report only a US-backed southern corridor keeping limited safe passage open, with sanctioned tankers still using flag tricks to move through.
Oil eases despite the standoff
Brent crude slipped around 1% on the day to just above $72, with the market looking past the stalled talks toward a well-supplied third quarter and the partial reopening of shipping routes near Oman.
Power & generationWind drought persists as heatwave keeps gas in the mixUK wind output is running at just over 3% of generation, leaving gas-fired plant to cover almost a third of demand through the current hot spell.
Generation mix
Gas-fired plant (CCGT and OCGT) supplied around 29.9% of GB generation at midday, with solar strong at 25.2% and wind contributing just 3.2%, continuing the recent wind drought.
Demand and heat
GB demand stood at 33.14GW as the second heatwave of the summer continues. Some networks in the South West have reported local strain, and a temporary use ban starts in Kent from 3 July.
Regulatory & week aheadWhat to watch this weekNorway's mediation outcome, Kent's water restriction and the EU's 90% storage target with 80% flexibility are the near-term watch points.
Norway mediation deadline
If the Floating Rigs Agreement mediation fails today or tomorrow, a fresh strike in the rig area is due to start Friday 3 July, adding to the existing Well Service Agreement action.
EU storage on watch
EU gas storage stood at 48.9% full as of 29 June, some 13.3 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm. The region is working toward the winter 2026/27 target of 90% by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing a minimum of 80%.