Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
UK gas and power both eased at the front of the curve after Norway's floating-rig unions accepted a pay deal that averts Friday's threatened strike, and a surge in UK wind to almost half the generation mix further eased the call on gas-fired plant; European prompt gas stayed firmer on a continental heatwave, and Strait of Hormuz shipping is still only slowly recovering despite fresh, inconclusive Doha talks.
Norway deal reachedUK wind surgeHormuz still slowTTF heat demandStorage below norm
UK Gas▼
NBP Win-26 front season -1.93% on the day to 3.64p/kWh
UK Power▼
Win-26 front season -1.66% on the day to 9.70p/kWh as wind surged
EU Storage▲
49.1% full, 13.5pp below the five-year norm
Easing, mixed signalsSofter · Firmer
Norway's rig deal and a wind surge pulled the UK forward curve lower, but firm European prompt gas and a still-fragile Hormuz recovery keep some upside risk in play.
UK gas Win-26
3.64p/kWh
-1.93% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
9.70p/kWh
-1.66% day-on-day
EU gas storage
49.1% full
13.5pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
44.11EUR/MWh
+2.54% on the day
Brent crude
70.89$/bbl
-0.84% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GAS & POWER
UK gas and power both eased on the day after Norway's floating-rig unions accepted a pay deal that averts Friday's threatened strike, while UK wind surged to 46% of the generation mix: UK gas Win-26 fell 1.93% to 3.64p/kWh and UK power Win-26 fell 1.66% to 9.70p/kWh.
2 · GEOPOLITICS
US and Iran ended a second round of indirect Doha talks with Qatar citing 'positive progress' but no confirmed release of frozen funds, while Strait of Hormuz shipping keeps recovering only slowly and Brent crude eased a further 0.84% to $70.89/bbl.
3 · WEATHER
A heatwave across continental Europe is driving prompt cooling demand and keeping TTF firm, up 2.54% on the day, even as EU storage sits at 49.1% full, still 13.5 percentage points below the five-year norm.
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 1 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 9.70 | -1.66% | 3.64 | -1.93% |
| Sum-27 | 7.54 | -0.97% | 2.69 | -1.75% |
| Win-27 | 7.72 | +0.14% | 2.76 | -1.07% |
| Sum-28 | 6.05 | -0.15% | 2.14 | -0.67% |
| Win-28 | 6.98 | 0.00% | 2.42 | -0.39% |
| Sum-29 | 6.10 | -0.15% | 1.95 | -0.69% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 1 July 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.56 GW11.2%
Solar6.00 GW18.9%
Interconnectors3.30 GW10.4%
Wind14.49 GW45.6%
Biomass0.69 GW2.2%
Nuclear3.00 GW9.4%
Hydro + pumped0.10 GW0.3%
Other0.60 GW1.9%
As of 2 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storage
-13.5pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 30 June 2026.
The detail
Geopolitics & supplyDoha talks show "positive progress", Hormuz recovery still fragileDoha talks ended without a frozen-funds breakthrough, and Strait of Hormuz shipping is recovering only slowly.
Doha talks conclude without a frozen-funds deal
Qatari mediators say indirect talks between Washington and Tehran on the Islamabad memorandum made "positive progress" before concluding on Wednesday evening. Iran wants frozen funds released before moving on to the deal's remaining clauses, with reports of the figure ranging from $3bn to $12bn of a reported $24bn total, but no US official has confirmed a release, and Tehran says it will not proceed with the outstanding clauses until the first five are fully stabilised.
Strait of Hormuz still short of normal traffic
The Strait remains classed as closed to commercial shipping even though the 17 June ceasefire memorandum calls for it to reopen toll-free for 60 days. Only around 27 to 35 vessels a day are transiting, versus a pre-war average near 100 to 110, as insurers and shipowners wait for more stability before committing vessels, and war-risk cover for Hormuz-transiting ships remains well above pre-conflict levels.
Oil extends its slide
Brent crude eased a further 0.84% on the day to $70.89/bbl, continuing a decline of around a fifth over the past month as the gradual Hormuz recovery and rising Iranian and Russian export volumes ease the supply-shock premium that had pushed prices above $100 earlier in the year.
Gas & LNGNorway rig strike averted, smaller oilfield lockout runs onA pay deal for Norway's floating-rig workers heads off Friday's threatened walkout; a separate, smaller service-sector lockout continues.
Floating-rig pay deal reached
The Norwegian Shipowners' Association and the Industri Energi, Safe and DSO unions reached a wage settlement in Stavanger on Wednesday morning: a general uplift of 2.7%, with a minimum of NOK24,500 (about $2,868) including holiday pay. The deal averts the strike that had threatened to pull more than 1,000 workers off Norwegian floating rigs from Friday, and removes the supply risk that had been pushing UK and EU gas higher earlier in the week.
Oilfield-services lockout continues
A separate, smaller dispute is still live: around 1,000 Norwegian oil-service contractors, including SLB, Halliburton, Subsea 7, DOF Subsea, Weatherford and Baker Hughes, remain locked out after the Safe union's strike began on 15 June. Norwegian industry has flagged that production losses could exceed 120,000 boepd if it runs past mid-July, so this stays a watch item even with the bigger rig dispute now resolved.
Russian gas keeps arriving despite the phase-out
EU regulator ACER data show Russian gas imports actually rose in the first months of 2026 even as the bloc's formal withdrawal begins, with pipeline volumes up 7% year on year and LNG up 11%, as buyers maximise deliveries ahead of the scheduled 2027 ban. Russian LNG still lands mainly via Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, with pipeline flows concentrated in Hungary, Slovakia and Greece.
Weather & powerUK wind surges as European heat keeps prompt gas firmUK wind jumped to 46% of the generation mix, while a continental heatwave keeps TTF prompt prices elevated.
UK wind swings hard higher
Wind supplied 45.6% of UK generation this morning (14.49GW) against demand of 31.75GW, easing the call on gas-fired plant: CCGT covered just 11.2% of the mix. That is a sharp turnaround from the calmer wind conditions of recent days, and is a direct contributor to today's softer UK gas and power forward prices.
Continental heatwave keeps prompt gas firm
An intense heatwave across Europe is lifting cooling-driven power demand and keeping front-month TTF firm, up 2.54% on the day to around 44.11 EUR/MWh even as the UK's own forward curve eased. That prompt-versus-forward divergence is worth watching if the heat persists.