Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
UK gas and power turned higher today as unplanned Norwegian field maintenance tightens supply just as a European heatwave lifts demand, while Iran's warning to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz adds a fresh layer of risk as the country enters a week-long state funeral for its slain supreme leader.
Norway outageHormuz warningKhamenei funeralHeatwave demandStorage gap
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 firmed as Norwegian flows tighten
UK Power▲
Gas sets the tone, power follows higher
EU Storage▲
49.2% full, 13.7pp under the five-year norm
Firmer, modest upside riskSofter · Firmer
Tight Norwegian flows, continental heat and a fresh Hormuz warning are pulling prices back up after a calmer start to the week.
UK gas Win-26
3.71p/kWh
+1.91% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
9.82p/kWh
+1.29% day-on-day
EU gas storage
49.2% full
13.7pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
44.20EUR/MWh
+2.75% on the day
Brent crude
72.30$/bbl
+0.6% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GAS & POWER
UK gas and power prices firmed today after unplanned Norwegian field maintenance tightened supply just as a European heatwave pushed up cooling demand, reversing this week's earlier easing.
2 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran warned shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to keep to designated routes or face a forceful response, adding fresh risk before a week-long state funeral for its slain leader begins tomorrow.
3 · STORAGE & WEATHER
Continental heat kept cooling demand elevated and European gas storage remains well below its five-year average, even though refilling continues at a steady pace into the summer.
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 2 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 9.82 | +1.29% | 3.71 | +1.91% |
| Sum-27 | 7.52 | -0.24% | 2.71 | +0.85% |
| Win-27 | 7.79 | +0.82% | 2.77 | +0.52% |
| Sum-28 | 6.04 | -0.07% | 2.14 | +0.24% |
| Win-28 | 6.91 | -1.05% | 2.43 | +0.57% |
| Sum-29 | 6.09 | -0.07% | 1.96 | +0.24% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 2 July 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.49 GW8.6%
Solar6.49 GW22.3%
Interconnectors7.39 GW25.4%
Wind5.16 GW17.8%
Biomass1.72 GW5.9%
Nuclear3.00 GW10.3%
Hydro + pumped0.30 GW1.0%
Other1.56 GW5.4%
As of 3 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storage
-13.7pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 1 July 2026.
The detail
Geopolitics & supplyHormuz risk resurfaces as Iran's funeral week beginsIran has warned shipping to stick to designated routes through the Strait of Hormuz, adding a fresh risk premium just as the country enters a week-long state funeral for its slain supreme leader.
Iran warns tankers over Hormuz routes
Iran's military command said on 2 July that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow routes designated by its armed forces or face a forceful response. The Joint Maritime Information Centre raised the threat level for the strait to substantial, citing continued mine risk and ongoing clearance work.
Traffic still recovering, ceasefire holding
Daily transits through the strait have risen to around 45 a day from the single figures seen at the height of the war, but that remains well below the pre-war average of over 100. The US-Iran ceasefire is still in place and Doha-hosted talks made further progress on 1 July, though no breakthrough on frozen assets has been confirmed.
Khamenei funeral begins tomorrow
A week-long state funeral for assassinated supreme leader Ali Khamenei starts on 4 July, running across Tehran, Qom, Mashhad, Najaf and Karbala. Iranian officials have warned the US and Israel against any action during the mourning period, keeping regional tension elevated even as diplomacy continues.
Gas & LNGNorwegian outage reverses this week's easingUnplanned maintenance at Norway's Oseberg field is removing gas from the system just as a heatwave lifts cooling demand, pushing UK and European prices back up after Thursday's calm.
Oseberg maintenance tightens flows
Unplanned maintenance at Norway's Oseberg field is removing around 12 million cubic metres a day of gas supply, with the outage expected to last until 8 July. The tighter flows come at a sensitive time given continental heat and still-below-average EU storage.
UK Win-26 firms, power follows
UK gas for winter 2026 (NBP) firmed on the Market Table, with UK power tracking gas higher, as tighter Norwegian supply outweighed the previous relief from progress in US-Iran talks.
TTF firm on heat and supply risk
European prompt gas (TTF) rose to around 44.20 EUR/MWh on 2 July, its highest in almost three weeks, as heatwave-driven demand and the Hormuz warning offset some of the relief from the tentative reopening of shipping.
Weather & powerHeatwave keeps demand elevatedA heatwave across continental Europe continues to lift cooling demand, while Britain's generation mix this morning was led by solar and wind with gas playing a supporting role.
Continental heat lifts demand
A heatwave across continental Europe is driving cooling demand, keeping prompt gas firm and adding to the pressure on storage refill rates during the traditionally quieter summer injection season.
UK generation mix
At 09:40 BST, Britain drew 29.08 GW of demand, with solar supplying just over a fifth of generation and wind close behind. Gas-fired plant covered a modest share, with the balance made up by nuclear, biomass, and net imports over the interconnectors.
Week aheadWhat to watch next weekNorway's Oseberg outage is due to clear by 8 July, while Iran's funeral proceedings run into next week and Doha talks are expected to resume once mourning ends.
Oseberg restart
The Oseberg maintenance is scheduled to end on 8 July, which should ease Norwegian flows back towards normal and take some of the current tightness out of the front of the curve.
Funeral proceedings and diplomacy
Khamenei's funeral runs from 4 to 9 July across Iran and Iraq. Qatar has said further US-Iran talks will be scheduled once the mourning period ends, with any progress on frozen assets or shipping tolls likely to move sentiment on Hormuz risk.