Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
Iran's plan to start charging ships for Hormuz passage, and a paused ceasefire track during Khamenei's funeral, keep gas underpinned even as oil slides on another round of OPEC+ supply.
Hormuz transit feesFuneral pauseOPEC+ supply boostStorage deficitWind returns
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 front season firmed 2.0% at Friday's close on lingering Hormuz risk
UK Power▲
Power's Win-26 front season firmed 1.4%, gas still setting the margin
EU Storage▲
50.0% full, still 14 points behind the 5yr norm
Firm, mild upside riskSofter · Firmer
A Hormuz transit-fee dispute and a storage deficit keep a floor under gas, even as oil eases on more OPEC+ supply.
UK gas Win-26
3.79p/kWh
+2.0% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
9.96p/kWh
+1.4% day-on-day
EU gas storage
50.0% full
14.0pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
44.66EUR/MWh
-1.5% on the day
Brent crude
71.64$/bbl
lower on the day, near a five-month low
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran said it will start charging ships to use the Strait of Hormuz, a move Washington has rejected, clouding hopes of a full reopening.
2 · OIL & GAS
Oil slid to its lowest level since February as OPEC+ agreed to raise output again, while UK gas stayed firm on lingering Hormuz-related supply risk.
3 · POWER & GENERATION
Wind reclaimed its place as Britain's largest power source as breezier weather returned, while Europe's gas storage kept rising but stayed below the seasonal norm.
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 3 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 9.96 | +1.42% | 3.79 | +2.00% |
| Sum-27 | 7.57 | +0.69% | 2.74 | +1.03% |
| Win-27 | 7.84 | +0.72% | 2.78 | +0.39% |
| Sum-28 | 6.08 | +0.58% | 2.13 | -0.35% |
| Win-28 | 6.91 | +0.07% | 2.42 | -0.25% |
| Sum-29 | 6.08 | -0.16% | 1.94 | -0.79% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 3 July 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.38 GW7.9%
Solar6.48 GW21.4%
Interconnectors4.76 GW15.7%
Wind10.70 GW35.4%
Biomass0.74 GW2.5%
Nuclear3.00 GW9.9%
Hydro + pumped0.30 GW1.0%
Other1.89 GW6.2%
As of 6 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storage
-14.0pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 4 July 2026.
The detail
Geopolitics & supplyIran moves to charge for Hormuz passage as diplomacy pauses for the funeralTehran's plan for transit fees, rejected by Washington, keeps a question mark over free passage once the ceasefire's 60-day window runs out.
Fee proposal
Iran's ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, said on Saturday that Tehran will 'definitely' charge service fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with 'special treatment' for friendly nations being worked out alongside Oman. Washington has rejected the plan, and it remains unclear what applies once the original 60-day free-transit window from the June ceasefire deal expires.
Funeral pause
US and Iranian negotiators left Doha as Iran holds a week of state funeral ceremonies, running 4 to 9 July, for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the February strike. Talks on the outstanding terms of the ceasefire, including nuclear inspections, remain on hold until the mourning period ends.
Shipping still thin
Traceable daily transits through the strait have recovered to around eight a day, up from one or two during the worst of the war, but remain far short of the roughly 135 a day seen before the conflict, and tanker traffic has not picked up further in the past few days.
Oil & gas supplyOil eases on more OPEC+ supply while gas holds its premiumBrent has fallen to its lowest since February as OPEC+ adds barrels, but European gas is holding up on lingering Hormuz risk and a storage deficit.
Oil
Brent crude traded around $71.64/bbl on Monday, near its lowest level since late February, after OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets again for August.
TTF
The European TTF benchmark eased to about 44.66 EUR/MWh, down 1.5% on the day, though it remains close to the three-week high reached last week.
Norway
Norwegian export curtailments, flagged as a driver of last week's firmer close, look modest on the numbers: Gassco nominations have held near 338 mcm/day of total exit flow, with curtailments reported rising from around 27 to 45 mcm/day by 4 July, well short of a major supply event.
Power & weatherWind returns as the UK's leading fuel as the heat breaksA breezier, more changeable pattern has replaced last month's heat, pushing wind back to the top of the generation mix and gas into a minor role.
Generation mix
GridWatch showed wind supplying 35% of British generation this morning against demand of 30.25GW, with solar adding a further 21% and gas (CCGT) down to just 8%.
Weather turn
The Met Office says early July has turned much more changeable, with low pressure bringing rain and brisk winds to the northwest after June's record heat, a shift that eases the cooling-driven demand that had supported prices last week.
Week aheadNATO's Ankara summit puts Hormuz security on the agendaAlliance leaders meet Tuesday and Wednesday with freedom of navigation through the strait a stated priority, though appetite for a naval role looks limited.
Summit
NATO's 32 leaders meet in Ankara on 7 and 8 July, with the summit declaration expected to call for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary General Mark Rutte has said the alliance could help but that not all members have the naval assets to take part.