Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
Iran struck US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday, retaliating for Tuesday's American strikes on Iran, and gas, power and oil all firmed at the last close as the Hormuz ceasefire looks increasingly fragile.
Iran-US escalationHormuz shipping riskOil rallyStorage deficitWind drought
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 front season closed Tuesday up 5.3% as Hormuz risk resurfaced
UK Power▲
Win-26 power closed Tuesday up 3.6%, tracking gas higher
EU Storage▼
50.6% full, 14.1pp below the 5-year norm
Firm, high supply-risk premiumSofter · Firmer
Iran's strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, on top of Tuesday's tanker attacks and US strikes on Iran, have pushed gas, power and oil higher.
UK gas Win-26
3.92p/kWh
+5.3% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
10.23p/kWh
+3.6% day-on-day
EU gas storage
50.6% full
14.1pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
46.30EUR/MWh
+4.3% on the day
Brent crude
76.48$/bbl
+3.0% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday, retaliating for American strikes a day earlier and straining the fragile Hormuz ceasefire.
2 · OIL & GAS
A missile strike set a Qatari LNG tanker ablaze in the Strait on Tuesday, sending gas and oil sharply higher.
3 · POWER & GENERATION
Wind stayed weak at Wednesday's snapshot, though strong solar output helped keep Britain's power system comfortably supplied.
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 7 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 10.23 | +3.59% | 3.92 | +5.26% |
| Sum-27 | 7.60 | +0.65% | 2.77 | +2.39% |
| Win-27 | 7.83 | -0.25% | 2.79 | +1.60% |
| Sum-28 | 6.05 | +0.20% | 2.13 | +0.92% |
| Win-28 | 6.92 | +0.09% | 2.42 | -0.06% |
| Sum-29 | 6.06 | -0.05% | 1.93 | -0.47% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 7 July 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)9.85 GW30.1%
Solar7.21 GW22.0%
Interconnectors6.79 GW20.7%
Wind1.80 GW5.5%
Biomass2.02 GW6.2%
Nuclear3.01 GW9.2%
Hydro + pumped0.34 GW1.0%
Other1.74 GW5.3%
As of 8 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storage
-14.1pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 6 July 2026.
The detail
Geopolitics & supplyHormuz ceasefire fractures as Iran and US trade strikesIran hit US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday after Tuesday's American strikes on Iran, the sharpest escalation since June's truce.
Tit-for-tat strikes
US Central Command said it launched a series of strikes on Tuesday against Iranian air defences, radar sites, anti-ship missile capability and dozens of Revolutionary Guard boats, in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded on Wednesday, saying it had targeted US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, including the US Fifth Fleet area in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait, with sirens sounding in both countries. Source: Alex's 'Market news 08072026' email and CNBC, NBC and Al Jazeera reporting dated 7 and 8 July.
Oil sanctions waiver revoked
The US Treasury revoked, on Tuesday, the waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil and petrochemicals under the interim peace deal agreed on 17 June, requiring any Iranian oil sales to be wound down by 17 July. That removes a recent source of supply just as the wider ceasefire comes under strain.
Shipping still far from normal
Even before this week's escalation, transits through the Strait were running at only around a third of pre-crisis levels and war-risk insurance was pricing at roughly eight times normal, despite the Strait being nominally reopened under June's truce.
Oil & gasTanker strike and Iran's retaliation push gas and oil higherTTF jumped over 4% and Brent is up around 3% since the Qatari LNG tanker attack, extending gains as Iran hit US Gulf bases.
Qatari LNG tanker hit
The Qatari-owned LNG carrier Al Rekayyat and the Saudi-flagged tanker Wedyan were both struck by projectiles near the Strait on Tuesday; Al Rekayyat caught fire in its engine room. Source: CNBC and oilprice.com reporting dated 7 July.
TTF and UK gas both firmer
European TTF gas rose more than 4% on Tuesday to above EUR46/MWh on the tanker attack. UK gas followed: the NBP Win-26 front season closed Tuesday at 3.92 p/kWh, up 5.3% on the day, with UK power's Win-26 season up 3.6% at 10.23 p/kWh as gas set the price.
Brent extends its rally
Brent crude reached $76.48/bbl in early Wednesday trading, up around 3% on the day and the highest since 23 June, reversing a slide that had taken prices back toward pre-war levels. Source: CNBC and Al Jazeera reporting dated 8 July.
Power & generationSolar covers a fifth of demand as wind stays weakGridWatch shows gas still the largest single source at 09:40 BST, with solar strong and wind contributing only around 5% of Britain's power.
Snapshot at 09:40 BST
Demand stood at 32.76 GW. Gas supplied about 30% of generation, solar around 22%, net interconnector imports around 21%, nuclear 9%, biomass 6%, wind only around 5% and hydro roughly 1%.
Wind drought persists
Wind output remains subdued at under 2 GW. Recent warm, settled conditions across the UK and near-continent have suppressed wind generation even as solar output has been running well above typical summer levels.