Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
The Iran ceasefire has effectively collapsed: the US struck Iran for a second straight day after President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding 'over', and UK gas, power and oil all firmed hard into last night's close as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut to shipping.
Ceasefire collapseHormuz shipping haltStorage deficitWind droughtHeatwave demand
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 jumped almost 5% at last close on Hormuz risk
UK Power▲
Power tracked gas higher, Win-26 up around 2.5% at last close
EU Storage▼
50.9% full, 14.2pp below the 5-year norm
Firm, strong upside riskSofter · Firmer
Ceasefire collapse and a still-shut Hormuz keep gas, power and oil firmly bid.
UK gas Win-26
4.10p/kWh
+4.78% at last close
UK power Win-26
10.49p/kWh
+2.52% at last close
EU gas storage
50.9% full
14.2pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
49.11EUR/MWh
+4.9% on the day
Brent crude
77.92$/bbl
+5.1% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICS
The US bombed Iran for a second day running after Trump declared the ceasefire 'over', deepening the Hormuz shipping crisis.
2 · OIL & GAS
UK gas, power and oil all firmed hard at last night's close, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut and Norwegian flows down further.
3 · WEATHER & GENERATION
Wind stayed extremely weak overnight, though solar and gas kept the system comfortably supplied ahead of an intensifying European heatwave.
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 8 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 10.49 | +2.52% | 4.10 | +4.78% |
| Sum-27 | 7.74 | +1.80% | 2.86 | +3.49% |
| Win-27 | 7.90 | +0.98% | 2.88 | +3.05% |
| Sum-28 | 6.03 | -0.40% | 2.15 | +0.84% |
| Win-28 | 6.97 | +0.66% | 2.43 | +0.60% |
| Sum-29 | 6.03 | -0.48% | 1.95 | +0.83% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 8 July 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)11.04 GW32.8%
Solar7.31 GW21.7%
Interconnectors6.86 GW20.4%
Wind1.51 GW4.5%
Biomass1.97 GW5.8%
Nuclear2.99 GW8.9%
Hydro + pumped0.29 GW0.9%
Other1.70 GW5.0%
As of 9 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storage
-14.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing a reduction to a minimum of 80%. As of 7 July 2026.
The detail
Geopolitics & supplyCeasefire declared 'over' as US strikes Iran againTrump says the Iran memorandum is finished; a second day of US strikes followed, with the Hormuz shipping crisis deepening.
Second day of strikes
The US military carried out strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, hours after President Trump told reporters at the NATO summit that the ceasefire memorandum was 'over' and 'a waste of time'. US Central Command said the strikes targeted Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Mutual accusations
A US official called the strikes a response to Iranian violations, while Iran's foreign ministry said Washington had already invalidated the deal by revoking Iran's oil-sale waiver and failing to stop Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Alex Bannon flagged the escalation in a morning note, and Iranian state media reported fresh explosions overnight in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Bushehr.
Hormuz still effectively shut
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a fraction of normal levels, with several major container lines still rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and war-risk insurance premiums many times their pre-crisis level.
Oil & gasGas, power and oil all firm hard at the closeUK and European gas and power tracked oil sharply higher into last night's close as Hormuz risk mounted and Norwegian flows eased further.
UK and European gas
UK NBP and European TTF both jumped at the last close, with the front UK season up close to 5% on the day, as the market priced in a longer disruption to Gulf shipping and LNG flows.
Oil surges on Hormuz risk
Brent crude jumped over 5% to close near 78 dollars a barrel, its highest in weeks, after Washington revoked a waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude and confirmed further vessel attacks in the strait.
Norway pares back supply
Flows from Norway, the region's largest single pipeline supplier, eased slightly as seasonal maintenance was extended, adding a further squeeze to an already tight balance.
Weather & generationWind drought persists as heatwave risk buildsBritish wind output stayed near record lows overnight while forecasters flagged an intensifying heatwave across northwest Europe.
UK generation mix
Gas-fired generation and solar carried the system this morning, with wind contributing only a few percent of output. Interconnector imports remained a significant part of the mix.
Heatwave ahead
Forecasters are flagging an intensifying heatwave across northwest Europe in the coming days, which would lift air-conditioning demand and gas-fired power burn just as storage refill lags the norm.
Storage & regulationInjection pace still lagging the relaxed targetThe EU needs a much faster injection rate to reach even the flexed 80% target by winter, with storage now over 14 points behind the norm.
Slow injections
EU storage stood at 50.9% full on 7 July, up only fractionally on the day and well short of the roughly 3,700 GWh a day injection rate needed to reach the mandatory target by 1 November.
Flexibility already in use
Brussels has already relaxed the winter 2026/27 fill target from 90% to a minimum of 80% under Commission flexibility provisions, and current pace is still running below even that relaxed trajectory.