Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
The US and Iran traded fresh strikes over the weekend and into Monday, with Tehran declaring the Strait of Hormuz shut and missiles reaching Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain; TTF and Brent have jumped again this morning even though UK gas and power actually eased at Friday's close, and EU storage remains well short of the five-year norm at just over half full.
Hormuz escalationUS-Iran strikesGulf missile attacksStorage deficitThird heatwave
UK Gas▼
NBP front season eased at Friday's close, -2.9% on the day
UK Power▼
Power tracked gas lower into Friday's close, -2.1% on the day
EU Storage▼
51.8% full, 14.6pp under the five-year norm
Firm, escalating upside riskSofter · Firmer
Fresh weekend strikes and a disputed Hormuz closure are pulling TTF and Brent higher even as UK forwards eased at Friday's close.
UK gas Win-26
4.05p/kWh
-2.9% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
10.46p/kWh
-2.1% day-on-day
EU gas storage
51.8% full
14.6pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
50.59EUR/MWh
+3.68% on the day
Brent crude
78.25$/bbl
+2.95% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSThe US and Iran traded fresh strikes over the weekend, with Tehran declaring Hormuz shut and missiles reaching Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Fresh strikes over the weekend
The US military opened a new wave of strikes on Iran at 9pm GMT on Sunday, with Centcom saying the aim was to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping. President Trump said US forces were "beating them up". Tehran said the strikes had rendered the past few months of diplomacy futile.
Strait status disputed
Iran says it has closed the strait until further notice, while the US insists it remains open. Commercial transits have fallen to a small fraction of pre-war levels, underlining how disrupted shipping is even as the two sides argue over the strait's formal status.
Conflict spreads to Gulf neighbours
Iran retaliated against nations hosting US forces: Jordan's army said it intercepted four Iranian missiles, Kuwait's military said it responded to hostile aerial targets, and air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain. A Cyprus-flagged container ship was set ablaze in the strait on Sunday, with one Indian crew member missing.
2 · MARKETSUK gas and power eased at Friday's close, but European gas and oil have jumped again this morning as the conflict escalates.
UK gas and power eased into Friday's close
At the last Market Table close (Friday 10 July), the UK gas Win-26 season fell to 4.05p/kWh, down 2.9% on the day, while UK power Win-26 slipped to 10.46p/kWh, down 2.1%. Both markets had firmed earlier in the week before easing back into the weekend.
TTF and Brent jump on the fresh escalation
European TTF prompt gas is trading at 50.59 EUR/MWh this morning, up 3.68% on the day, and Brent crude has risen to 78.25 $/bbl, up 2.95%, as the renewed Hormuz fighting revives the risk premium in both markets.
Forward curve softer further out
Beyond the front season the curve eased modestly across most tenors on Friday, with Sum-27 and Win-27 gas both down close to 1% and 0.6% respectively, while Win-28 power ticked up slightly against an otherwise softer board.
3 · GENERATIONA third UK heatwave persists this week, with wind picking up over the weekend even as EU gas storage refill lags the season norm.
Third heatwave persists, breezier at the weekend
The Met Office says the UK's third heatwave of the year continues, with the hottest conditions of the week expected on Thursday and Friday as parts of England reach the mid-30s. Easterly winds have picked up over the weekend, particularly along southern and eastern coasts.
Wind and solar lead this morning's mix
GridWatch showed wind supplying 22.8% of generation and solar 19.6% as of 09:40 BST, with demand at 30.1GW. Gas-fired generation held a modest 8.5% share, with imports via interconnectors making up around a quarter of supply.
EU storage refill still lagging the norm
EU gas storage stood at 51.8% full as of 11 July, some 14.6 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 66.4%. The winter 2026/27 target remains 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce this to a minimum of 80%.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 10 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 10.46 | -2.10% | 4.05 | -2.91% |
| Sum-27 | 7.78 | -0.17% | 2.90 | -0.99% |
| Win-27 | 7.96 | -0.45% | 2.93 | -0.56% |
| Sum-28 | 6.08 | -0.07% | 2.14 | -0.97% |
| Win-28 | 6.94 | +0.38% | 2.43 | -0.24% |
| Sum-29 | 6.03 | -0.45% | 1.95 | -0.19% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 10 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.57 GW8.5%
Solar5.91 GW19.6%
Interconnectors7.82 GW26.0%
Wind6.88 GW22.8%
Biomass2.54 GW8.4%
Nuclear3.00 GW10.0%
Hydro + pumped0.32 GW1.1%
Other1.08 GW3.6%
As of 13 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storagei
-14.6pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce this to a minimum of 80%. As of 11 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+3.88%JKM•0.00%Brent•0.00%WTI▲+3.50%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.05%GBPUSD•0.00%GBPEUR•0.00%Gold▼-1.42%TTF▲+3.88%JKM•0.00%Brent•0.00%WTI▲+3.50%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.05%GBPUSD•0.00%GBPEUR•0.00%Gold▼-1.42%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+3.88%JKM•0.00%Brent•0.00%WTI▲+3.50%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.05%GBPUSD•0.00%GBPEUR•0.00%Gold▼-1.42%TTF▲+3.88%JKM•0.00%Brent•0.00%WTI▲+3.50%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.05%GBPUSD•0.00%GBPEUR•0.00%Gold▼-1.42%
Global gasiTTF▲+3.88%JKM•0.00%
OiliBrent•0.00%WTI▲+3.50%
CarboniUK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%
FTSE 100i▼-0.05%
ForexiGBPUSD•0.00%GBPEUR•0.00%
Goldi▼-1.42%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 13 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.