Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
Iran struck two UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight and the US carried out a third straight night of strikes, after President Trump reinstated the naval blockade of Iranian ports and threatened a 20% Hormuz transit toll. Brent crude and European gas both jumped hard on the escalation, and UK gas and power followed higher into Monday's close, with EU storage refill still running well behind the seasonal norm.
Hormuz blockadeTanker attacksQatar LNG haltThird heatwaveStorage deficit
UK Gas▲
NBP front season jumped 5.5% at Monday's close as Hormuz risk escalated
UK Power▲
Front season up 4.2%, tracking gas higher through the close
EU Storage▲
52.2% full, 14.5pp below the five year norm
Firm, escalating upside riskSofter · Firmer
Brent's biggest one day jump in years and a reinstated US blockade point the market firmly higher.
UK gas Win-26
4.27p/kWh
+5.5% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
10.90p/kWh
+4.2% day-on-day
EU gas storage
52.2% full
14.5pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
50.43EUR/MWh
+3.4% on the day
Brent crude
83.30$/bbl
+9.6% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSIran struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the US hit back for a third night, as Washington reinstated its blockade.
Tankers hit, blockade reinstated
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it hit two UAE tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, killing one crew member and injuring eight others, as the US carried out a third consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets. The IRGC also said it targeted US facilities in Jordan and Bahrain overnight.
US reimposes the blockade and a toll
President Trump said the US is reinstating its naval blockade of Iranian ports and will charge a 20% fee on cargo shipped through the Strait, reversing the core terms of June's memorandum of understanding. The International Maritime Organization has rejected the toll as having no legal basis, and the US Treasury has warned that paying Iran for passage would breach sanctions.
Qatar keeps LNG output paused
Qatar halted its push to ramp up LNG production at Ras Laffan after a tanker was struck in the Strait earlier this month, and is holding output at a reduced safety minimum. That keeps a lid on global LNG availability just as Europe works to refill storage ahead of winter.
2 · MARKETSOil and European gas jumped hard on the escalation, and UK gas and power followed higher into Monday's close.
UK gas and power push higher
NBP Win-26 closed Monday at 4.27 p/kWh, up 5.5% on the day, while the UK power front season closed at 10.90 p/kWh, up 4.2%. Both extended gains across the curve out to Sum-29 as the market built in a Hormuz risk premium.
TTF and Brent lead the move
TTF front-month gas rose around 3.4% to near 50.4 EUR/MWh, while Brent crude surged 9.6% to $83.30 a barrel, one of its largest one day gains in years, as the blockade announcement and tanker attacks reignited supply fears.
Risk premium tapers further out the curve
The forward moves were broadest in the front seasons and eased the further out the curve went, suggesting the market is pricing the acute risk as concentrated over the next year or so rather than as a lasting repricing.
3 · STORAGEEU gas storage is now around 52% full, still well behind the five year norm, as a calmer, sunnier spell boosts UK solar.
Refill still lagging the norm
EU gas storage stood at 52.2% full as of 12 July, against a five year seasonal norm of 66.7% for the date, a shortfall of 14.5 percentage points. The winter 2026/27 target remains 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to a minimum of 80%.
UK basks in a third heatwave
A calmer, sunnier spell continues across the UK, with the Met Office noting a record run of days above 34C this year. Solar generation was strong through the morning while wind eased back as conditions turned calmer.
Generation mix holds steady
UK demand stood at 30.55GW at 09:40 BST, met largely by wind and solar plus net imports of 7.73GW via the interconnectors, with gas providing a modest baseload share of the mix.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 13 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 10.90 | +4.22% | 4.27 | +5.47% |
| Sum-27 | 8.01 | +2.97% | 3.04 | +4.72% |
| Win-27 | 8.17 | +2.64% | 3.03 | +3.47% |
| Sum-28 | 6.13 | +0.76% | 2.17 | +1.38% |
| Win-28 | 7.02 | +1.14% | 2.44 | +0.33% |
| Sum-29 | 6.04 | +0.23% | 1.95 | -0.09% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 13 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.84 GW9.3%
Solar5.47 GW17.9%
Interconnectors7.73 GW25.3%
Wind6.95 GW22.8%
Biomass2.67 GW8.7%
Nuclear3.02 GW9.9%
Hydro + pumped0.46 GW1.5%
Other1.41 GW4.6%
As of 14 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storagei
-14.5pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 12 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+3.35%JKM•0.00%Brent▲+3.37%WTI•0.00%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.55%GBPUSD▲+0.08%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.40%TTF▲+3.35%JKM•0.00%Brent▲+3.37%WTI•0.00%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.55%GBPUSD▲+0.08%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.40%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+3.35%JKM•0.00%Brent▲+3.37%WTI•0.00%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.55%GBPUSD▲+0.08%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.40%TTF▲+3.35%JKM•0.00%Brent▲+3.37%WTI•0.00%UK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%FTSE 100▼-0.55%GBPUSD▲+0.08%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.40%
Global gasiTTF▲+3.35%JKM•0.00%
OiliBrent▲+3.37%WTI•0.00%
CarboniUK carbon•0.00%EU carbon•0.00%
FTSE 100i▼-0.55%
ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.08%GBPEUR▼-0.09%
Goldi▲+0.40%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 14 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.