Energy Market Briefing
UK gas and power both firmed again after Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran returns to the table, extending a fourth straight day of US strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 front season up around 3.9% on the day
UK Power▲
Gas sets the price, Win-26 up around 3.6% on the day
EU Storage▲
52.5% full, 14.5pp below the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firm, escalating upside riskSofter · Firmer
Trump's threat to strike Iranian power plants and bridges keeps the market pricing further supply disruption risk.
UK gas Win-26
4.44p/kWh
+3.85% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
11.28p/kWh
+3.55% day-on-day
EU gas storage
52.5% full
14.5pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
54.60EUR/MWh
+2.7% on the day
Brent crude
85.44$/bbl
+0.8% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSTrump has threatened to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran returns to the table, as strikes hit a fourth straight day.
Power plants and bridges named as targets
Donald Trump said in a Tuesday Fox News interview that the US would strike Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table, as US strikes against Iran entered a fourth consecutive day.
Naval blockade back in force
The US reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz on 14 July alongside a proposed 20% toll on cargo transiting the waterway, with Iran's forces declaring the strait closed until American interference ends.
Congress pushes back
US Senate Democrats blocked a $1.15 trillion defence policy bill on Tuesday, citing frustration with the Iran war and the White House's failure to consult Congress before committing forces to the conflict.
2 · MARKETSUK gas and power both firmed again as the market kept pricing in the risk of a longer Gulf supply disruption.
UK gas and power both firmer
The Win-26 season closed up around 3.9% on the day for UK gas and 3.6% for UK power on Alex's Market Table, extending the rally seen since the blockade was reinstated.
Global benchmarks extend the move
European gas was trading near 54.6 EUR/MWh on Wednesday, up around 2.7% on the day, while Brent crude held near $85.44 a barrel, up about 0.8%, both still well above pre-crisis levels.
Curve richer across the seasons
All six front seasons priced higher day on day, with the move concentrated at the front of the curve (Win-26, Sum-27) and easing further out, consistent with the market treating this as a near-term supply risk rather than a structural repricing.
3 · STORAGEEU gas storage is still building through the summer but remains well behind normal levels, with record Russian LNG imports filling some of the gap.
Fill still lags the five-year norm
EU gas storage stood at 52.5% full as of 13 July, continuing to build through the injection season but still around 14.5 percentage points behind the five-year average for the date.
Russian LNG imports hit a record
The EU imported a record 9.89 million tonnes of Russian LNG from the Yamal plant in the first half of 2026, up 18% on the same period last year, despite the bloc's plan to phase out Russian LNG entirely by the end of the year.
Norwegian maintenance still a live constraint
Unplanned and planned outages continue to weigh on Norwegian gas output through the summer maintenance season, adding another source of tightness alongside the Gulf disruption as Europe tries to rebuild stocks.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 14 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 11.28 | +3.55% | 4.44 | +3.85% |
| Sum-27 | 8.21 | +2.40% | 3.14 | +3.26% |
| Win-27 | 8.34 | +2.08% | 3.11 | +2.64% |
| Sum-28 | 6.23 | +1.78% | 2.21 | +1.69% |
| Win-28 | 6.98 | -0.63% | 2.46 | +0.92% |
| Sum-29 | 6.11 | +1.18% | 1.95 | +0.06% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 14 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)7.59 GW24.0%
Solar4.97 GW15.7%
Interconnectors7.17 GW22.7%
Wind3.58 GW11.3%
Biomass2.61 GW8.2%
Nuclear3.46 GW10.9%
Hydro + pumped0.24 GW0.8%
Other2.03 GW6.4%
As of 15 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storagei
-14.5pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 13 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+4.38%JKM▲+0.76%Brent▲+1.72%WTI▲+1.54%UK carbon▲+2.06%EU carbon▲+1.55%FTSE 100▲+0.30%GBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▼-0.01%Gold▲+1.33%TTF▲+4.38%JKM▲+0.76%Brent▲+1.72%WTI▲+1.54%UK carbon▲+2.06%EU carbon▲+1.55%FTSE 100▲+0.30%GBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▼-0.01%Gold▲+1.33%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+4.38%JKM▲+0.76%Brent▲+1.72%WTI▲+1.54%UK carbon▲+2.06%EU carbon▲+1.55%FTSE 100▲+0.30%GBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▼-0.01%Gold▲+1.33%TTF▲+4.38%JKM▲+0.76%Brent▲+1.72%WTI▲+1.54%UK carbon▲+2.06%EU carbon▲+1.55%FTSE 100▲+0.30%GBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▼-0.01%Gold▲+1.33%
Global gasiTTF▲+4.38%JKM▲+0.76%
OiliBrent▲+1.72%WTI▲+1.54%
CarboniUK carbon▲+2.06%EU carbon▲+1.55%
FTSE 100i▲+0.30%
ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▼-0.01%
Goldi▲+1.33%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 14 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.