Energy Market Briefing
US strikes pushed further into northern Iran overnight and Tehran hit back at American bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, with Trump now weighing a ground operation and a strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex; UK gas and power both firmed again into the last close as the market kept pricing in a longer Gulf disruption.
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 front season firmed further, up around 2.5% at the last close
UK Power▲
Power followed gas higher, Win-26 also up around 2.5% at the last close
EU Storage▲
52.8% full and still building, but 14.5 percentage points below the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firm, escalating upside riskSofter · Firmer
Fifth day of US-Iran strikes and a widening blockade keep a heavy risk premium in the curve.
UK gas Win-26
4.55p/kWh
+2.46% at last close
UK power Win-26
11.56p/kWh
+2.46% at last close
EU gas storage
52.8% full
14.5pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
55.11EUR/MWh
+1.1% on the day
Brent crude
84.80$/bbl
-0.2% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSUS strikes have pushed into northern Iran near Tehran, and Iran has hit back at American bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Strikes push north toward Tehran
US Central Command carried out fresh strikes in Iran's north on Thursday morning, hitting areas around the capital after two waves of attacks on Wednesday, as the campaign against Iran entered its fifth day.
Trump weighs ground options and Pickaxe Mountain
Trump is reportedly considering a broader US ground operation near Kharg Island and a strike on the fortified Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex south of Tehran, alongside his threat to hit Iran's power plants and bridges if talks do not resume next week.
Iran retaliates across the Gulf
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they struck a US base in Jordan with ballistic missiles and carried out drone attacks on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, warning the conflict could spread to new arenas.
Blockade and tanker incident
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, reinstated this week, saw its first enforcement action on Wednesday when a US aircraft disabled the Curacao-flagged tanker M/T Belma as it headed for Iran's Kharg Island export terminal; Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned of further shipping route closures in response.
2 · MARKETSUK gas and power both firmed again into the latest close as traders keep pricing in a longer Gulf supply disruption.
UK gas and power firm again
UK NBP and power forward prices both rose around 2.5% at Wednesday's close on Win-26, extending the rally as the market continued to price in the risk of a longer Gulf disruption; TTF firmed similarly, trading above EUR 55/MWh on Thursday, its fourth consecutive daily rise.
Oil eases off four-day highs
Brent crude slipped around 0.2% on Thursday to near $84.80 a barrel, giving back some of its four-session rally as traders booked profits; prices remain well up on the week given the absence, so far, of any confirmed hit to physical Gulf oil flows.
Risk premium concentrated in the front seasons
All six of the front live seasons on the curve, Win-26 through Sum-29, posted gains at Wednesday's close, with the nearest winter carrying the largest percentage move, a sign the market is loading its risk premium onto the season most exposed to a Gulf disruption.
3 · STORAGEEU gas storage is now about 53% full and still building, but remains well behind normal levels for this point in summer.
Fill rate holding above 52%
EU gas storage stood at 52.8% full as of 14 July, on the Energiedashboard/AGSI data Alex tracks, still around 14.5 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 67.3% for this date.
Winter refill target
The EU's winter 2026/27 filling target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce that to a minimum of 80%; hitting even the lower bound needs injections to keep accelerating through late summer and autumn.
Elevated prices complicate the refill
The same Gulf-driven rally pushing TTF above EUR 55/MWh raises the cost of the gas Europe still needs to buy to hit its winter target, a tension between security of supply and cost that is likely to persist while the conflict continues.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 15 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 11.56 | +2.46% | 4.55 | +2.46% |
| Sum-27 | 8.39 | +2.27% | 3.21 | +2.23% |
| Win-27 | 8.48 | +1.70% | 3.17 | +1.63% |
| Sum-28 | 6.35 | +1.89% | 2.23 | +1.05% |
| Win-28 | 7.05 | +1.02% | 2.48 | +0.82% |
| Sum-29 | 6.16 | +0.88% | 1.96 | +0.51% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 15 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)8.02 GW24.8%
Solar6.90 GW21.3%
Interconnectors6.88 GW21.2%
Wind2.49 GW7.7%
Biomass2.63 GW8.1%
Nuclear3.45 GW10.7%
Hydro + pumped0.25 GW0.8%
Other1.76 GW5.4%
As of 16 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storagei
-14.5pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 14 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+2.37%JKM▲+0.92%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.33%UK carbon▲+3.28%EU carbon▼-0.26%FTSE 100▼-0.13%GBPUSD▲+1.12%GBPEUR▲+0.71%Gold▲+0.16%TTF▲+2.37%JKM▲+0.92%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.33%UK carbon▲+3.28%EU carbon▼-0.26%FTSE 100▼-0.13%GBPUSD▲+1.12%GBPEUR▲+0.71%Gold▲+0.16%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+2.37%JKM▲+0.92%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.33%UK carbon▲+3.28%EU carbon▼-0.26%FTSE 100▼-0.13%GBPUSD▲+1.12%GBPEUR▲+0.71%Gold▲+0.16%TTF▲+2.37%JKM▲+0.92%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.33%UK carbon▲+3.28%EU carbon▼-0.26%FTSE 100▼-0.13%GBPUSD▲+1.12%GBPEUR▲+0.71%Gold▲+0.16%
Global gasiTTF▲+2.37%JKM▲+0.92%
OiliBrent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.33%
CarboniUK carbon▲+3.28%EU carbon▼-0.26%
FTSE 100i▼-0.13%
ForexiGBPUSD▲+1.12%GBPEUR▲+0.71%
Goldi▲+0.16%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 15 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.