Energy Market Briefing
The Gulf conflict has widened overnight, with strikes now hitting US and allied positions in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar and Iran's Revolutionary Guard vowing no oil or gas will move through Hormuz while attacks continue; UK gas and power stay close to three-month highs even though Thursday's close saw the curve pause for breath after this week's sharp run-up.
UK Gas▲
NBP front season firmed marginally on the last close and remains close to three-month highs
UK Power▼
Power eased back slightly on the last close as the curve paused after this week's sharp run-up
EU Storage▲
53% full, gap to the seasonal norm holding at close to 15pp
Market bias
Firm, upside risk elevatedSofter · Firmer
Hormuz closure and widening Gulf strikes keep a heavy risk premium in the curve, even as Thursday's close eased back slightly.
UK gas Win-26
4.57p/kWh
+0.44% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
11.53p/kWh
-0.28% day-on-day
EU gas storage
53.0% full
14.6pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
55.11EUR/MWh
+1.1% on the day
Brent crude
84.63$/bbl
-0.4% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSGulf conflict widens beyond Iran as strikes hit US and allied positions in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar overnight, with Hormuz still shut to tankers.
Strikes spread to Gulf states
The US carried out strikes on Iran for a sixth consecutive night, with Iranian officials reporting at least eight killed and 20 wounded. Iran's military says it targeted a US base in Bahrain, Kuwait's army says it responded to missile and drone attacks, and a child was injured by falling missile debris in Qatar.
Hormuz still shut, Bab-el-Mandeb risk rising
Iran's Revolutionary Guard says no oil or gas will move through the Strait of Hormuz while US attacks continue, and only three commodity vessels crossed the strait yesterday, the fewest since May. Iran says any move to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, used by its Houthi allies, would follow further attacks on its civilian and energy infrastructure.
Peace talks still open
Despite the escalation, the White House says Iran remains interested in continuing negotiations and that contact with Iranian negotiators is ongoing, an offsetting note of caution for anyone pricing in further disruption.
2 · MARKETSUK gas held its gains into Thursday's close while power eased back slightly, as the curve paused after this week's sharp run-up on Gulf risk.
Curve pauses after a sharp run-up
UK gas and power diverged slightly on Thursday's close (16 July): the Win-26 gas season firmed marginally while power eased back, and most back seasons out to Sum-29 consolidated a little lower on the day after a week of sharp gains driven by Gulf risk.
TTF and oil diverge
European day-ahead gas (TTF) extended its rally to a fresh three-month-plus high near 55 EUR/MWh on Thursday, while Brent crude took a breather, easing back slightly after surging over 11% across the week as markets digest how much disruption is already priced in.
UK system comfortable for now
Britain's generation mix this morning is running with gas, solar and net imports covering the bulk of demand, with wind contributing only a modest share on a low-wind day. The physical system shows no signs of stress despite the elevated forward curve.
3 · STORAGEEU gas storage is about 53% full but still trails its seasonal norm, leaving Europe exposed if Gulf LNG delays continue.
Filling continues but the gap holds
EU gas storage stood at 53% full as of 15 July, around 14.6 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 67.6% for this date, though the fill rate has held a fairly steady pace of around 0.2 percentage points a day through the first half of July.
Winter target still some way off
The EU's winter 2026/27 filling target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce this to a minimum of 80%. At the current pace of injections the aggregate would need to accelerate to reach the higher figure.
Gulf disruption complicates the refill
Curtailed LNG shipping through Hormuz, including reduced cargoes reaching Europe, adds a further headwind to the autumn refill push just as the region's conflict risk intensifies, keeping upside pressure on prompt prices that feed through to storage economics.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 16 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 11.53 | -0.28% | 4.57 | +0.44% |
| Sum-27 | 8.27 | -1.41% | 3.18 | -0.87% |
| Win-27 | 8.39 | -1.01% | 3.11 | -1.63% |
| Sum-28 | 6.26 | -1.39% | 2.21 | -0.79% |
| Win-28 | 7.06 | +0.16% | 2.48 | -0.23% |
| Sum-29 | 6.11 | -0.94% | 1.98 | +0.93% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 16 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.86 GW21.9%
Solar6.13 GW19.6%
Interconnectors7.92 GW25.3%
Wind2.56 GW8.2%
Biomass2.59 GW8.3%
Nuclear3.46 GW11.1%
Hydro + pumped0.24 GW0.8%
Other1.55 GW5.0%
As of 17 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storagei
-14.6pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 15 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-0.04%JKM▲+18.54%Brent▼-0.85%WTI▼-0.82%UK carbon▼-3.43%EU carbon▼-2.40%FTSE 100▲+0.54%GBPUSD▼-0.47%GBPEUR▼-0.28%Gold▼-2.23%TTF▼-0.04%JKM▲+18.54%Brent▼-0.85%WTI▼-0.82%UK carbon▼-3.43%EU carbon▼-2.40%FTSE 100▲+0.54%GBPUSD▼-0.47%GBPEUR▼-0.28%Gold▼-2.23%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-0.04%JKM▲+18.54%Brent▼-0.85%WTI▼-0.82%UK carbon▼-3.43%EU carbon▼-2.40%FTSE 100▲+0.54%GBPUSD▼-0.47%GBPEUR▼-0.28%Gold▼-2.23%TTF▼-0.04%JKM▲+18.54%Brent▼-0.85%WTI▼-0.82%UK carbon▼-3.43%EU carbon▼-2.40%FTSE 100▲+0.54%GBPUSD▼-0.47%GBPEUR▼-0.28%Gold▼-2.23%
Global gasiTTF▼-0.04%JKM▲+18.54%
OiliBrent▼-0.85%WTI▼-0.82%
CarboniUK carbon▼-3.43%EU carbon▼-2.40%
FTSE 100i▲+0.54%
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.47%GBPEUR▼-0.28%
Goldi▼-2.23%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 16 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.