Energy Market Briefing

US forces carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran into Monday, hitting command centres, air defence sites, maritime assets, missile facilities and communications networks. Confirmed American military deaths in the renewed fighting have risen to three: two service members killed in an Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on a base in Jordan on Friday, and a third who died in northern Iraq on Saturday during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned that not a single drop of oil or gas will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz if US strikes continue, and claims to have targeted US aircraft in Jordan and hit two oil tankers in the strait, though these claims are unverified and Washington disputes that the strait is closed. The strait has been effectively shut to normal commercial transit since a closure declaration in late February, with only a handful of vessels transiting each day against a norm of around 88.

Kuwaiti oil and power facilities were hit over the weekend in what Iran's Revolutionary Guard called the 15th wave of its retaliatory campaign, damaging an offshore drilling platform and a cogeneration power and desalination plant that supplies much of the country's drinking water, with one fatality reported. Diplomacy shows little sign of returning, with Washington reportedly still planning for a wider war and moving additional military aircraft into the region.

Brent crude jumped to around $90.70 a barrel, up roughly 3% on the day and its highest level since mid-June, as the market re-prices a genuine physical supply shock centred on the Strait of Hormuz rather than a purely rhetorical risk premium.

European TTF gas rose to around EUR 59.83/MWh, up about 4% on the day, while UK gas at the Win-26 front season closed at 4.75p/kWh, up 4.0% on the previous trading day, as the market prices in a longer disruption to Gulf supply routes and stronger competition for LNG cargoes.

UK power at the Win-26 front season closed at 11.86p/kWh, up 2.9% on the previous day, with gas continuing to set the marginal price even as solar and wind covered a large share of Monday's generation.

EU gas storage stood at 53.7% full as of 18 July, some 14.8 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 68.5% for this point in the year, according to the EU aggregate reading on the Swiss energy dashboard.

With the region needing to rebuild stocks before the winter 2026/27 season, when the target is 90% of capacity by 1 December (with Commission flexibility down to a minimum of 80%), the current shortfall against norm, combined with elevated LNG competition from the Gulf disruption, makes the injection task tougher than in recent years.