Energy Market Briefing
Oil briefly broke back above $90 overnight after Houthi rebels declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, opening a second potential chokepoint alongside the Strait of Hormuz, before easing back as regional mediators pushed a fresh ceasefire proposal that neither Washington nor Tehran has yet accepted. UK gas and power stay firm after last week's sharp climb, with EU storage still running well behind its five-year norm.
UK Gas▲
NBP front season firmed further into Monday's close, up on the day
UK Power▲
Power tracked gas higher, front season up on the day
EU Storage▼
54.0% full, 14.8pp behind the five-year norm
Market bias
Firm, high upside riskSofter · Firmer
Two live chokepoint risks, Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, keep the risk premium elevated, tempered only by a mediators' ceasefire push neither side has accepted.
UK gas Win-26
4.84p/kWh
+1.9% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
12.16p/kWh
+2.5% day-on-day
EU gas storage
54.0% full
14.8pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
59.39EUR/MWh
+1.1% on the day
Brent crude
88.54$/bbl
-0.8% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSHouthi rebels have declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, opening a second potential shipping chokepoint alongside the blocked Strait of Hormuz.
Red Sea blockade
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on Monday, in retaliation for what it called an unjust siege on Yemen and a strike on Sanaa airport. Saudi Arabia routes around 70% of its energy exports through the Red Sea, making Bab el-Mandeb a second pressure point alongside Hormuz.
Hormuz still effectively closed
The Strait has been at a near-standstill for days, with Iran having struck several commercial vessels transiting the waterway since a truce collapsed earlier this month. Traffic remains a fraction of its normal level.
Strikes continue
The US carried out its tenth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to attack shipping in the Strait. Iran responded by hitting tankers in the strait and US-linked targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it struck an Amazon data centre in Bahrain with cruise missiles.
2 · MARKETSOil spiked then eased back as mediators pushed a fresh ceasefire proposal that neither Washington nor Tehran has accepted, keeping UK gas and power firm.
Oil pulls back from a brief spike
Brent traded briefly above $90 a barrel after the Houthi blockade announcement before easing back to around $88.50, a fall of under 1% on the day, as traders weighed reports of a mediator-led ceasefire push.
Ceasefire proposal on the table
Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have put a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Washington and Tehran. Neither side has accepted it yet, and a senior US official said the President has not finished retaliating for the deaths of US soldiers.
UK gas and power firm into Monday's close
UK gas firmed further into the market close on 20 July, with the front season up close to 2% on the day, and UK power tracked it higher. European TTF also firmed, up close to 1% on the day.
3 · STORAGEEurope's gas storage refill continues to lag well behind normal levels for the time of year, even as a Norwegian oilfield workers' dispute is settled.
Refill still lagging
EU gas storage stood at 54.0% full as of 19 July, some 14.8 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm for the date, as the winter 2026/27 target of 90% (with Commission flexibility down to 80%) comes into sharper focus.
Norway dispute resolved
The Norwegian offshore workers' strike and lockout that had squeezed oil and gas service output through June and into July ended on 15 July, with the dispute referred to arbitration and crews returning to work, easing one source of supply tightness even as Gulf risk grows.
LNG call
Analysts continue to flag that Europe will need higher LNG imports to close the storage gap before winter, with the refill task getting harder the longer Gulf-linked price strength persists.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 20 July 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 12.16 | +2.55% | 4.84 | +1.87% |
| Sum-27 | 8.34 | +0.10% | 3.22 | -0.20% |
| Win-27 | 8.39 | +0.48% | 3.14 | -0.49% |
| Sum-28 | 6.33 | -0.13% | 2.22 | -0.69% |
| Win-28 | 7.10 | +0.60% | 2.48 | -0.59% |
| Sum-29 | 6.17 | +0.23% | 1.98 | -0.79% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 20 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.63 GW21.2%
Solar5.27 GW16.9%
Interconnectors7.51 GW24.0%
Wind3.54 GW11.3%
Biomass2.50 GW8.0%
Nuclear3.46 GW11.1%
Hydro + pumped0.51 GW1.6%
Other1.84 GW5.9%
As of 21 July 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storagei
-14.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 19 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+1.91%JKM▲+0.19%Brent▲+1.27%WTI▲+0.90%UK carbon▲+5.02%EU carbon▲+5.29%FTSE 100▼-0.71%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.06%Gold▼-0.27%TTF▲+1.91%JKM▲+0.19%Brent▲+1.27%WTI▲+0.90%UK carbon▲+5.02%EU carbon▲+5.29%FTSE 100▼-0.71%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.06%Gold▼-0.27%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+1.91%JKM▲+0.19%Brent▲+1.27%WTI▲+0.90%UK carbon▲+5.02%EU carbon▲+5.29%FTSE 100▼-0.71%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.06%Gold▼-0.27%TTF▲+1.91%JKM▲+0.19%Brent▲+1.27%WTI▲+0.90%UK carbon▲+5.02%EU carbon▲+5.29%FTSE 100▼-0.71%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.06%Gold▼-0.27%
Global gasiTTF▲+1.91%JKM▲+0.19%
OiliBrent▲+1.27%WTI▲+0.90%
CarboniUK carbon▲+5.02%EU carbon▲+5.29%
FTSE 100i▼-0.71%
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.06%
Goldi▼-0.27%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 20 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.