Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 22 July 2026 · Generated 09:40 BST · Past 24 hours

Trump's threat to strike Iran's underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, and Tehran's threat to widen the war in response, kept the risk premium firmly bid overnight. UK gas and power extended their climb into Tuesday's close, oil pushed above $94 a barrel, and EU storage remains well behind its five-year norm.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 firmed a further 1.7% into the close

UK Power▲

Power tracked gas higher, up around 0.9% on the day

EU Storage▼

54.2% full, 14.9pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, high upside riskSofter · Firmer

Escalating Iran-US strikes and a threatened hit on Pickaxe Mountain keep the risk premium firmly to the upside.

UK gas Win-26

4.92p/kWh

+1.72% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

12.28p/kWh

+0.93% day-on-day

EU gas storage

54.2% full

14.9pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

61.37EUR/MWh

+2.81% on the day

Brent crude

93.81$/bbl

+3.07% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Trump has threatened to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site as Tehran threatens to widen the war, with Gulf mediators racing to salvage a ceasefire.
Pickaxe Mountain in the crosshairs
President Trump said the US would strike the underground Pickaxe Mountain facility beside Iran's Natanz enrichment site "pretty soon, and very heavily", after reports that Tehran moved centrifuges there. Iran has warned of a decisive response if the US follows through, opening the door to a serious expansion of the conflict.
Eleventh night of strikes
US Central Command bombed Iranian military and drone infrastructure for an eleventh consecutive night, part of a campaign Washington says is degrading Tehran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress the war has already cost the US $37.5bn.
Gulf states caught in the crossfire
Iran has kept up retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, all hosts to US forces, hitting Kuwaiti power and water infrastructure and prompting Jordan to intercept missiles aimed at Aqaba. Saudi Arabia meanwhile faces a separate naval blockade declared by the Houthis last week, opening a second front on Gulf shipping.
Mediation on the back burner
Pakistan, alongside Qatar, Egypt and Oman, is pushing a fresh ceasefire proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the fighting, but officials say talks remain fragile after the collapse of the earlier truce. Neither Washington nor Tehran has yet accepted the latest terms.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power firmed further into the close as oil jumped on the escalating Iran conflict, with traders pricing in more supply risk.
UK gas and power extend their climb
UK NBP gas for winter 2026 firmed a further 1.7% at Tuesday's close, while UK power tracked around 0.9% higher, as the market continued to price in the risk of a wider Gulf conflict disrupting supply.
Oil leads the move
Brent crude climbed to around $94 a barrel, up over 3% on the day, its highest level in months, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted by the fighting.
TTF tracks the same risk premium
European TTF gas rose close to 3% to around 61 EUR/MWh, underlining that the move is a broad energy complex reaction to the Iran war rather than a UK-specific development.
Reading the close
The forward prices and moves in this report reflect Tuesday's market close. Where a fresh same-day figure is quoted instead, such as today's TTF and Brent levels, it is dated separately so the two are not confused.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is only around 54% full and well behind the seasonal norm, leaving Europe facing a tougher push to meet its winter target.
Fill rate still lagging
EU gas storage stood at 54.2% full as of 20 July, according to the live Swiss energy dashboard feed Alex favours, up only marginally on the injection pace of the past few days.
Wide gap to the five-year norm
That level sits around 14.9 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 69.1% for this date, underscoring how far behind the usual refill trajectory Europe remains this summer.
Winter target at risk
Brussels wants member states to reach 90% of capacity by 1 December for winter 2026/27, with flexibility allowing a minimum of 80% where a country cannot get there. At the current pace, even the lower bound will be a stretch.
Generation mix on the day
Britain's system was drawing 32.2GW of demand this morning, with gas-fired generation supplying just over a fifth of the mix and wind and solar contributing broadly equal shares of around 15 to 16% each, alongside a meaningful net import via interconnectors.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 21 July 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.28	+0.93%	4.92	+1.72%
Sum-27	8.38	+0.41%	3.24	+0.65%
Win-27	8.48	+1.06%	3.16	+0.65%
Sum-28	6.38	+0.68%	2.27	+2.26%
Win-28	7.18	+1.18%	2.51	+1.34%
Sum-29	6.22	+0.70%	2.02	+1.97%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 21 July 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.73 GW20.9%

Solar5.06 GW15.7%

Interconnectors7.52 GW23.4%

Wind5.03 GW15.6%

Biomass2.46 GW7.6%

Nuclear3.46 GW10.7%

Hydro + pumped0.46 GW1.4%

Other1.49 GW4.6%

As of 22 July 2026, 09:40 BST.

EU gas storagei

Now

54.2%

5yr norm

69.1%

-14.9pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 20 July 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+2.25%JKM▲+1.47%Brent▲+2.01%WTI▲+2.02%UK carbon▼-0.64%EU carbon▼-0.11%FTSE 100▲+0.58%GBPUSD▼-0.42%GBPEUR▼-0.28%Gold▲+1.76%TTF▲+2.25%JKM▲+1.47%Brent▲+2.01%WTI▲+2.02%UK carbon▼-0.64%EU carbon▼-0.11%FTSE 100▲+0.58%GBPUSD▼-0.42%GBPEUR▼-0.28%Gold▲+1.76%

Global gasiTTF▲+2.25%JKM▲+1.47%

OiliBrent▲+2.01%WTI▲+2.02%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.64%EU carbon▼-0.11%

FTSE 100i▲+0.58%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.42%GBPEUR▼-0.28%

Goldi▲+1.76%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 21 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.