Energy Market Briefing
Iran has rejected a US-brokered ceasefire delivered through Baghdad and named British bases as targets as strikes on Iran run to a thirteenth night; UK gas and power steadied at Wednesday's close after this week's sharp climb, and Brent has eased back in early trading even though the underlying risk premium stays firmly in place.
UK Gas▼
NBP Win-26 eased 0.5% at the midweek close after days of sharp gains
UK Power▼
Power Win-26 dipped 0.4%, tracking gas lower off the week's highs
EU Storage▲
54.6% full, 15.2pp under the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firm, upside risk intactSofter · Firmer
Curve has steadied at the midweek close, but a rejected ceasefire and a widening Red Sea front keep risk skewed higher.
UK gas Win-26
5.12p/kWh
-0.48% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
12.69p/kWh
-0.38% day-on-day
EU gas storage
54.6% full
15.2pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
61.86EUR/MWh
flat on the day
Brent crude
97.92$/bbl
-2.75% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSIran has rejected a US-brokered ceasefire proposal delivered through Baghdad and named British bases as targets, as US strikes on Iran reach a thirteenth night.
Ceasefire rejected
Iran turned down a temporary ceasefire proposal put to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ali al-Zaidi on behalf of the US, insisting the status of the Strait of Hormuz be resolved first. US strikes on Iranian military infrastructure ran to a thirteenth consecutive night.
UK bases named as targets
Iran's foreign ministry called the UK an "accomplice" in the US war and said British bases hosting US personnel and aircraft are considered legitimate targets. London said it stands ready to defend itself, while continuing to allow only defensive US operations from UK soil.
Washington losing patience
Allies told the Wall Street Journal that Donald Trump is in "revenge mode" over Iran and sees few options beyond continued strikes, frustrated that a conflict he expected to be over in weeks is still dragging on.
A second maritime front
Yemen's Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea as part of a declared naval blockade of Saudi ports, raising fears of a second chokepoint on top of the already near-closed Strait of Hormuz.
2 · MARKETSUK gas and power steadied at the midweek close, and Brent eased back in early trading, pausing this week's sharp climb.
Curve steadies after the surge
UK gas and power both eased marginally at Wednesday's close following days of sharp gains, with the Win-26 gas season at 5.12p/kWh and power at 12.69p/kWh, each down less than half a percent day-on-day.
Brent off the highs
Brent crude eased to $97.92/bbl on Friday, down 2.75% on the day, having surged over 7% on Thursday to around $101, its highest since May, as the Iran war and Red Sea attacks keep the risk premium elevated even as prices pull back.
TTF holds near recent highs
European TTF front-month gas was little changed at EUR61.86/MWh, still up sharply on the week after an eight-session rally driven by the escalating conflict and its threat to Middle Eastern supply routes.
Solar and wind cover close to two-fifths of demand
Britain's grid was drawing 29.9GW of demand this morning, with solar supplying just under a fifth and wind a similar share, alongside nuclear, biomass and net imports making up most of the rest.
3 · STORAGEEU gas storage is now around 55% full and refilling continues, but the gap to the seasonal norm remains wide heading into peak summer injection.
Fill edges higher
EU gas storage stood at 54.6% full as of 22 July, continuing its gradual summer refill, though the gap to the five-year seasonal norm of 69.8% has widened to around 15 percentage points.
Winter target still some way off
The EU's filling target for winter 2026/27 is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with the European Commission able to allow member states as low as 80%. Closing the gap to norm will need a sustained injection season through the autumn.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 23 July 2026
23 Jul 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 12.69 | -0.38% | 5.12 | -0.48% |
| Sum-27 | 8.71 | +0.65% | 3.40 | +1.49% |
| Win-27 | 8.77 | +0.76% | 3.32 | +2.15% |
| Sum-28 | 6.58 | +0.90% | 2.37 | +2.31% |
| Win-28 | 7.33 | +0.44% | 2.61 | +2.02% |
| Sum-29 | 6.35 | +0.24% | 2.08 | +1.44% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 23 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Interconnectors8.14 GW27.3%
Solar5.91 GW19.8%
Wind5.51 GW18.4%
Nuclear3.47 GW11.6%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.68 GW9.0%
Biomass2.60 GW8.7%
Hydro + pumped0.23 GW0.8%
Other1.33 GW4.5%
As of 24 July 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.
EU gas storagei
-15.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 22 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-0.59%JKM▼-0.80%Brent▲+7.04%WTI▲+6.17%UK carbon▼-2.99%EU carbon▼-3.29%FTSE 100▼-0.73%GBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▼-0.17%Gold▼-1.99%TTF▼-0.59%JKM▼-0.80%Brent▲+7.04%WTI▲+6.17%UK carbon▼-2.99%EU carbon▼-3.29%FTSE 100▼-0.73%GBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▼-0.17%Gold▼-1.99%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-0.59%JKM▼-0.80%Brent▲+7.04%WTI▲+6.17%UK carbon▼-2.99%EU carbon▼-3.29%FTSE 100▼-0.73%GBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▼-0.17%Gold▼-1.99%TTF▼-0.59%JKM▼-0.80%Brent▲+7.04%WTI▲+6.17%UK carbon▼-2.99%EU carbon▼-3.29%FTSE 100▼-0.73%GBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▼-0.17%Gold▼-1.99%
Global gasiTTF▼-0.59%JKM▼-0.80%
OiliBrent▲+7.04%WTI▲+6.17%
CarboniUK carbon▼-2.99%EU carbon▼-3.29%
FTSE 100i▼-0.73%
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▼-0.17%
Goldi▼-1.99%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 23 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.