Daily Market Briefing
Energy Market Briefing
Market at a glance
Iran's IRGC struck a Singapore-flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the first attack since the US-Iran peace framework was signed last week, forcing the UN to pause evacuation of stranded ships and challenging the Trump administration's claim that the strait is free and open. UK gas and power seasonal forwards both closed lower on the day as markets continue to price the broader peace trajectory, but the IRGC's demand that vessels use Iranian-approved routes keeps upside risk firmly in view.
Iran StrikeHormuz TalksUK HeatwaveGrid StressStorage Deficit
UK Gas▼
NBP Win-26 eased 1.5% to 3.48p/kWh; NBP prompt ticked up on Iran vessel strike
UK Power▼
Win-26 fell 0.4% to 9.41p/kWh as heatwave suppresses gas-for-heat demand
EU Storage▼
47.4% full as of 24 June, 13.3pp below the five-year seasonal norm
Softening, Hormuz risk in viewSofter · Firmer
Seasonal gas and power still trending lower on peace deal optimism, but Iran's drone strike on a cargo vessel caps the downside and keeps reversal risk alive.
UK gas Win-26
3.48p/kWh
-1.5% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
9.41p/kWh
-0.4% day-on-day
EU gas storage
47.4% full
13.3pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
40.87EUR/MWh
-0.5% on the day
Brent crude
74.43$/bbl
-1.1% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran drones cargo vessel in Hormuz in first attack since peace framework, UN pauses evacuation
2 · POWER
NESO pays £1,379/MWh for emergency European imports as UK heatwave overwhelms demand forecast
3 · GAS & STORAGE
EU gas stores at 47.4%, running 13.3pp below seasonal norm with 90% winter target still to reach
Forward curve & seasonal moves
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 25 June 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 9.41 | -0.43% | 3.48 | -1.48% |
| Sum-27 | 7.49 | -0.17% | 2.68 | -0.94% |
| Win-27 | 7.84 | +1.03% | 2.76 | -1.03% |
| Sum-28 | 6.05 | -0.20% | 2.14 | -0.78% |
| Win-28 | 6.96 | -0.33% | 2.44 | -0.38% |
| Sum-29 | 6.09 | -0.16% | 1.95 | -0.17% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 25 June 2026.
UK generation mix
Gas (CCGT)9.62 GW26.6%
Interconnectors7.42 GW20.5%
Solar6.46 GW17.9%
Wind5.40 GW14.9%
Nuclear3.54 GW9.8%
Biomass1.95 GW5.4%
Other0.54 GW1.5%
Hydro0.28 GW0.8%
As of 26 June 2026, 09:40 BST.
EU gas storage
-13.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 24 June 2026.
The detail
Geopolitics & supplyIran drones cargo vessel in Hormuz, first attack since peace framework signedThe IRGC struck Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely on Thursday, pausing UN evacuation efforts and casting fresh doubt on the durability of the US-Iran peace deal.
The strike
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely with a drone on Thursday as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, damaging the bridge but causing no injuries. The UN's shipping agency immediately paused its effort to evacuate hundreds of vessels stranded in the strait since the conflict began.
IRGC demands vessels use Iranian routes
The attack came hours after the IRGC warned that vessels would only receive safe passage on routes approved by Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, directly contradicting the Trump administration's claim that the strait is free and open. Iran has not claimed responsibility for the strike, but the IRGC stated that consequences for travelling on unauthorised routes would be the responsibility of the vessel's owner and operator.
Peace deal context
The Islamabad Memorandum of 17 June committed the US and Iran to reopening the Strait toll-free for 60 days, with talks in Switzerland on 22 June agreeing a roadmap for a permanent deal within 60 days. Thursday's strike, the first reported since that agreement, sent oil prices briefly higher as Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to sell the deal to sceptical Gulf nations. Seasonal gas and power forwards still closed lower on the day, suggesting markets remain focused on the broader peace trajectory rather than the individual incident.
Power & generationNESO pays emergency interconnector rates as UK heatwave overwhelms demand forecastThe UK grid operator paid up to £1,379/MWh for European power on Wednesday evening after heatwave cooling demand exceeded its forecast by up to 3 GW, adding £11m to bills in a single evening.
Emergency imports at record prices
NESO bought up to 2.3 GW mainly from the Netherlands on Wednesday evening at prices reaching £1,379/MWh, roughly 15 times the normal wholesale rate of around 8.00 p/kWh, after a surge in air-conditioning demand left the system short. NESO was forced to seek special EU dispensation to access the power after the Continent moved to limit exports to protect its own supply, and an extra £11m was added to consumer bills in a single balancing session.
Why the system came under strain
Record June temperatures of 36.4°C, with the Met Office issuing a red warning for extreme heat until Friday, drove cooling demand that NESO underestimated by up to 3 GW according to market analysts. Several gas-fired power stations are on summer maintenance, four of EDF's nuclear reactors are offline and solar panels lose efficiency in extreme heat. In France, nuclear stations relying on river cooling have had to cut back because river water temperatures are too high, tightening the Continental supply that the UK relies on for emergency imports.
Generation mix this morning
At 09:40 BST on Friday, UK demand was 36.18 GW with gas (CCGT) leading at 26.6% (9.62 GW), net interconnector imports at 20.5% (7.42 GW), solar at 17.9% (6.46 GW), wind at 14.9% (5.40 GW) and nuclear at 9.8% (3.54 GW). The heatwave is keeping wind low and solar elevated, but cooling-load demand remains above seasonal norms.
Gas & LNGEU gas storage at 47.4%, running 13pp below seasonal norm with 90% winter target still to reachEurope's gas stores stand 13.3pp below the five-year seasonal norm at 47.4% full, requiring a sustained injection rate across the summer to meet the 90% winter target by 1 December.
Storage level
EU gas storage stood at 47.4% full as of 24 June 2026, 13.3 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 60.7% for this date. The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce this to a minimum of 80%. The persistent deficit to the seasonal norm is a standing upside risk for winter gas and power prices.
Supply backdrop
Norway remains Europe's top gas supplier at roughly a third of EU imports and is increasing output to compensate for supply disruptions. The EU ban on Russian short-term LNG import contracts took effect on 25 April 2026, and short-term pipeline supply contracts were required to conclude by 17 June, progressively reducing remaining Russian gas flows through this summer and into autumn.
TTF and NBP price direction
TTF front-month gas fell around 0.5% to approximately €40.87/MWh on Thursday, continuing its recent downward trend as Hormuz reopening optimism weighs on European gas. UK NBP seasonal forwards followed, with Win-26 closing at 3.48 p/kWh (3.48p/kWh), down 1.5% on the day. The NBP prompt ticked up slightly on the Iran vessel strike news, illustrating the market's sensitivity to any sign that the Hormuz peace deal may not hold.