Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 13 August 2026 · Generated 09:47 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power jumped again into Wednesday's close, reversing Tuesday's pullback, as Iran hardened its refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and fresh Israeli strikes on Gaza and Lebanon added to the regional risk premium. Britain's grid rode out Wednesday's solar eclipse safely despite a heatwave-driven margin warning.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 up nearly 4% at Wednesday's close

UK Power▲

Power tracked gas higher, up close to 2.5%

EU Storage▲

59.3% full, 17.8pp behind the five-year norm, a gap still widening

Market bias

Firm, upside risk buildingSofter · Firmer

Gas and power both jumped at Wednesday's close as Gulf risk hardened again.

UK gas Win-26

5.13p/kWh

+3.8% at Wednesday's close

UK power Win-26

12.53p/kWh

+2.5% at Wednesday's close

EU gas storage

59.3% full

17.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

60.57EUR/MWh

+3.1% on the day

Brent crude

87.92$/bbl

-1.2% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until its demands are met, and UK gas and power jumped again as the stand-off hardens.
Strait stays shut
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on Wednesday the waterway remains blocked despite repeated claims from Washington that it has reopened and is under US control. Shipping traffic through Hormuz sat at a one-week low, with dozens of vessels still queuing at anchorages off Oman.
Washington leans on sanctions
The Trump administration is turning more heavily to economic sanctions and its naval blockade to squeeze Iran rather than force the strait open by other means, with new measures targeting Iran's cash and digital asset networks announced in the past week.
Stockpiles draining
The International Energy Agency warned that global oil stockpiles are being run down quickly while the strait remains effectively closed, adding urgency to any resolution. A senior adviser to Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Tehran could draw the stand-off out until Trump leaves office.
2 · MIDDLE EAST
Israel hit Gaza and south Lebanon, breaking the pause that ceasefires there were meant to hold.
Gaza strikes resume
Israel's military carried out fresh air strikes on Gaza on Wednesday, its first in more than a week, despite a ceasefire nominally still in place there.
Lebanon bombings continue
Israeli forces also carried out bombings and demolitions in southern Lebanon, in tension with the ceasefire agreed there in April, underlining how fragile the wider regional truce remains.
Reads across to gas and power
None of this is a fresh escalation on the scale of outright war, but it keeps a floor under the geopolitical risk premium that has been driving UK gas and power since the Ormen Lange outage and the wider Gulf stand-off began.
3 · GENERATION
Britain's grid safely rode out Wednesday's solar eclipse and heatwave peak, cancelling its evening margin warning before supplies were tested.
Margin warning called off
National Energy System Operator had flagged a supply margin shortfall of nearly 1.8GW from 5pm on Wednesday, as the solar eclipse cut solar output just as evening demand began building during the heatwave.
Reserves secured in time
The operator secured enough back-up reserves to cancel the warning before the eclipse reached its peak, and said there was no risk to customer supplies throughout.
This morning's mix
Gas-fired generation was supplying just over 30% of Britain's power on Thursday morning, solar close to 20% and interconnectors around 22% net, with wind subdued at under 4% in settled conditions.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 12 August 2026

12 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.53	+2.46%	5.13	+3.78%
Sum-27	8.29	+2.69%	3.23	+3.86%
Win-27	8.50	+1.31%	3.20	+3.17%
Sum-28	6.52	+1.89%	2.37	+2.81%
Win-28	7.24	+1.03%	2.61	+2.13%
Sum-29	6.32	+1.54%	2.10	+0.92%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 12 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)10.04 GW30.7%

Interconnectors7.14 GW21.8%

Solar6.51 GW19.9%

Nuclear3.78 GW11.6%

Biomass1.72 GW5.3%

Wind1.20 GW3.7%

Hydro + pumped0.33 GW1.0%

Other2.00 GW6.1%

As of 13 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

59.3%

5yr norm

77.1%

-17.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 11 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+1.08%JKM▲+0.26%Brent▲+0.08%WTI▲+0.08%UK carbon▼-1.27%EU carbon▼-0.53%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▼-0.09%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▲+0.92%TTF▲+1.08%JKM▲+0.26%Brent▲+0.08%WTI▲+0.08%UK carbon▼-1.27%EU carbon▼-0.53%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▼-0.09%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▲+0.92%

Global gasiTTF▲+1.08%JKM▲+0.26%

OiliBrent▲+0.08%WTI▲+0.08%

CarboniUK carbon▼-1.27%EU carbon▼-0.53%

FTSE 100i▼-0.10%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.09%GBPEUR▲+0.03%

Goldi▲+0.92%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 12 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.