Energy Market Briefing
Netanyahu is in Washington for his first Trump meeting since the Iran war began, and Iran has opened a new front by threatening Ukraine over a deadly Caspian Sea strike. UK gas and power still closed sharply lower on Monday as markets keep pricing out a Gulf disruption that has not materialised, even with the Strait of Hormuz still shut.
UK Gas▼
NBP front season fell sharply at Monday's close
UK Power▼
Power followed gas lower into Monday's close
EU Storage▼
55.7% full, 15.4pp below the 5yr norm
Market bias
Softer, but escalation risk skews it back upSofter · Firmer
Monday's close pushed the curve sharply lower, but the new Iran-Ukraine flashpoint and a fragile Trump-Netanyahu meeting could quickly rebuild the risk premium.
UK gas Win-26
4.83p/kWh
-7.73% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
12.12p/kWh
-5.48% day-on-day
EU gas storage
55.7% full
15.4pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
56.88EUR/MWh
+0.34% on the day
Brent crude
83.34$/bbl
-2.95% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSNetanyahu is in Washington for his first Trump meeting since the Iran war began, as Iran threatens retaliation against Ukraine over a Caspian Sea strike.
Netanyahu meets Trump
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington for his first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump since the Iran war began in late February. The agenda covers the ongoing Iran conflict, a possible Lebanon peace framework and expanding the Abraham Accords; relations between the two leaders have been strained at times and both sides are looking to smooth things over.
Talks with Tehran, but no breakthrough confirmed
Trump says Washington is holding "very friendly negotiations" with Iran and believes there is a good chance of ending the war, but has warned the US would resume "strong military action" if talks fail. Tehran denies any direct negotiations are taking place, saying it is only receiving messages from Washington via mediators.
Iran opens a new front against Ukraine
Iran's foreign ministry says a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea killed one sailor and injured several others, and has vowed retaliation, accusing Israel of provoking the attack to drag Europe into the war. Ukraine says it targeted a Russian warship and vessels carrying Iran-linked military cargo. Trump is separately due to meet Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy the same day.
Strait of Hormuz still shut
The Strait remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with tracker sites putting the closure at around 148 days and stranded vessels still waiting in the Gulf. No LNG carrier has transited the Strait since 12 July, a risk the market continues to watch closely even as the pause in strikes holds.
2 · MARKETSUK gas and power fell sharply at Monday's close as markets kept pricing out a Gulf supply disruption that has still not materialised.
A sharp close on Monday
The forward curve closed Monday's session sharply lower: UK gas Win-26 fell 7.73% and UK power Win-26 fell 5.48% day-on-day, extending the reversal of last week's spike as the market continued to unwind the risk premium built up during the fighting.
TTF steadies, Brent keeps falling
The European TTF prompt has broadly steadied this morning near 56.9 EUR/MWh, up modestly on the day. Brent crude has kept sliding, down almost 3% today to around $83/bbl, deepening last week's reversal as the market keeps pricing out a Gulf supply disruption that has not materialised.
UK system comfortably supplied
The UK gas system opened around 20 mcm/day long, with Norwegian exit nominations firm near 323 mcm/day despite maintenance at Dvalin, and linepack rebuilt to close to 350 mcm. That comfortable supply picture is reinforcing the bearish tone even with the Strait of Hormuz still shut to shipping.
3 · POWER SYSTEMSeveral nuclear units remain offline and strong wind is set to fade from Wednesday, with the grid operator warning of exceptionally high peak prices.
Nuclear outages tighten the system
Several nuclear units remain offline, including Sizewell B, Hartlepool 1 and Heysham, tightening the physical backbone of the power system even as wholesale gas prices soften.
Wind strong today, fading from Wednesday
Wind is supplying close to a third of Britain's power today, comfortably the largest single source on the system, but conditions are expected to ease from Wednesday onward. The grid operator has warned of a risk of exceptionally high peak-period prices as the tighter picture develops.
Imports covering a quarter of demand
Interconnector imports are covering roughly a quarter of British demand today, underlining how reliant the system is on cross-border flows while multiple nuclear units are out and wind is due to soften later in the week.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 27 July 2026
27 Jul 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 12.12 | -5.48% | 4.83 | -7.73% |
| Sum-27 | 8.57 | -3.67% | 3.29 | -5.64% |
| Win-27 | 8.62 | -3.17% | 3.23 | -5.00% |
| Sum-28 | 6.55 | -0.85% | 2.34 | -3.06% |
| Win-28 | 7.25 | -1.61% | 2.58 | -2.54% |
| Sum-29 | 6.33 | -0.13% | 2.07 | -1.05% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 27 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Wind9.57 GW31.5%
Interconnectors8.44 GW27.8%
Solar4.41 GW14.5%
Nuclear2.99 GW9.8%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.06 GW6.8%
Biomass1.51 GW5.0%
Hydro + pumped0.23 GW0.8%
Other1.15 GW3.8%
As of 28 July 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.
EU gas storagei
-15.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 26 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-8.15%JKM▼-2.59%Brent▼-8.70%WTI▼-7.50%UK carbon▲+0.09%EU carbon▼-1.29%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▼-0.24%GBPEUR▼-0.20%Gold▲+0.56%TTF▼-8.15%JKM▼-2.59%Brent▼-8.70%WTI▼-7.50%UK carbon▲+0.09%EU carbon▼-1.29%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▼-0.24%GBPEUR▼-0.20%Gold▲+0.56%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-8.15%JKM▼-2.59%Brent▼-8.70%WTI▼-7.50%UK carbon▲+0.09%EU carbon▼-1.29%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▼-0.24%GBPEUR▼-0.20%Gold▲+0.56%TTF▼-8.15%JKM▼-2.59%Brent▼-8.70%WTI▼-7.50%UK carbon▲+0.09%EU carbon▼-1.29%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▼-0.24%GBPEUR▼-0.20%Gold▲+0.56%
Global gasiTTF▼-8.15%JKM▼-2.59%
OiliBrent▼-8.70%WTI▼-7.50%
CarboniUK carbon▲+0.09%EU carbon▼-1.29%
FTSE 100i▲+0.42%
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.24%GBPEUR▼-0.20%
Goldi▲+0.56%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 27 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.