Energy Market Briefing
Oil and European gas both fell sharply this morning after the US paused its strikes on Iran for a second night running and Tehran halted retaliatory attacks in response, though the Strait of Hormuz remains shut to shipping and weekend Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities keep a real risk premium in the price.
UK Gas▲
NBP front season firmed to Friday's close, +2.4% day-on-day, though sentiment has turned sharply softer over the weekend
UK Power▲
Power tracked gas higher into Friday's close, +1.1% day-on-day, but the tone into the new week is markedly weaker
EU Storage▲
55.4% full, 15.4pp under the 5-year norm
Market bias
Softer, downside risk from the Iran pauseSofter · Firmer
The US-Iran strike pause pulled oil and gas sharply lower, though Hormuz shipping stays blocked and Gulf attacks continue to cap the downside.
UK gas Win-26
5.24p/kWh
+2.40% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
12.83p/kWh
+1.06% day-on-day
EU gas storage
55.4% full
15.4pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
58.06EUR/MWh
-8.8% on the day
Brent crude
90.28$/bbl
-8.2% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSOil and gas tumbled after the US paused strikes on Iran for a second night and Tehran halted retaliatory attacks in response.
Pause holds for a second night
The US paused strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night into Sunday, giving diplomacy more room; Iran's military said it had halted retaliatory attacks across the region in response.
Oil and gas reverse sharply
Brent crude fell to around $90 a barrel on the day, down over 8%, while European gas dropped more than 7% to around €58/MWh as the pause took hold, unwinding much of last week's spike.
Diplomacy remains fragile
The pause follows nearly two weeks of daily strikes that had unravelled June's ceasefire, and officials say no decision has been taken against renewed escalation. Separately, Iran condemned a Ukrainian attack on one of its vessels in the Caspian Sea, warning it would not go unanswered.
2 · SHIPPINGThe Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping despite the pause, and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities over the weekend keep the risk premium alive.
Shipping still stuck
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic; only a handful of vessels crossed over the weekend against a pre-crisis norm of more than 100 transits a day.
Talks make limited headway
Oman-mediated talks between regional players on reopening the strait have made some progress, but weekend meetings did not change the status of maritime traffic, Iran's foreign ministry said.
Houthi strikes widen the front
Houthi forces claimed attacks on facilities linked to Saudi Aramco at the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend, keeping a residual risk premium in the market even as the main US-Iran exchange pauses.
3 · MACROA heavy week of central bank meetings, the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, arrives just as energy price swings raise the stakes.
Three central banks in one week
The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, with all three under closer scrutiny than usual given the recent surge in energy prices and bond yields.
Fed seen on hold
Markets currently price only around a one-in-three chance of a Fed move this week, with guidance on the likely timing of any future hike the more closely watched signal from both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.
UK power supply steady into the week
Britain's generation mix on Monday morning was led by wind and solar together supplying over a third of demand, with gas-fired generation a relatively small share and net imports across the interconnectors continuing to support the system.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 24 July 2026
24 Jul 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 12.83 | +1.06% | 5.24 | +2.40% |
| Sum-27 | 8.89 | +2.11% | 3.49 | +2.53% |
| Win-27 | 8.90 | +1.53% | 3.40 | +2.36% |
| Sum-28 | 6.60 | +0.33% | 2.41 | +1.68% |
| Win-28 | 7.37 | +0.56% | 2.65 | +1.52% |
| Sum-29 | 6.34 | -0.20% | 2.10 | +0.99% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 24 July 2026.
UK generation mixi
Interconnectors7.45 GW25.1%
Wind5.71 GW19.2%
Solar4.97 GW16.8%
Nuclear2.98 GW10.0%
Biomass2.64 GW8.9%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.56 GW8.6%
Hydro + pumped0.94 GW3.2%
Other2.43 GW8.2%
As of 27 July 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.
EU gas storagei
-15.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 25 July 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+1.80%JKM▲+0.80%Brent▼-3.88%WTI▼-3.12%UK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-0.55%FTSE 100▲+0.91%GBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.11%Gold▲+0.13%TTF▲+1.80%JKM▲+0.80%Brent▼-3.88%WTI▼-3.12%UK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-0.55%FTSE 100▲+0.91%GBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.11%Gold▲+0.13%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+1.80%JKM▲+0.80%Brent▼-3.88%WTI▼-3.12%UK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-0.55%FTSE 100▲+0.91%GBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.11%Gold▲+0.13%TTF▲+1.80%JKM▲+0.80%Brent▼-3.88%WTI▼-3.12%UK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-0.55%FTSE 100▲+0.91%GBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.11%Gold▲+0.13%
Global gasiTTF▲+1.80%JKM▲+0.80%
OiliBrent▼-3.88%WTI▼-3.12%
CarboniUK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-0.55%
FTSE 100i▲+0.91%
ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.11%
Goldi▲+0.13%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 24 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.