Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 12 August 2026 · Generated 09:40 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power eased back across most of the curve at Tuesday's close, giving up some of Monday's Ormen Lange-driven spike as Washington claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz even though Tehran insists it stays shut. Britain's grid operator has also flagged a rare summer margin warning for tonight, as a solar eclipse cuts into a heatwave demand peak.

UK Gas▼

NBP Win-26 down 2.9% into Tuesday's close, unwinding Monday's spike

UK Power•

Power held close to flat at the front, still tracking gas lower further out

EU Storage▼

59.4% full, 17.3pp under the five-year norm

Market bias

Softer, curve unwinds Monday's spikeSofter · Firmer

Gas and power eased back across most of the curve as the market weighed rival US and Iranian claims over Hormuz against Monday's Ormen Lange-driven surge.

UK gas Win-26

4.95p/kWh

-2.9% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

12.23p/kWh

+0.3% day-on-day

EU gas storage

59.4% full

17.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

61.80EUR/MWh

up on the day

Brent crude

88.70$/bbl

holding near recent highs

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
UK gas and power eased back from Monday's spike after Washington claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran insists it stays closed.
Cargo ship disabled nearing Iran
US forces fired two Hellfire missiles at the steering gear of a Panama-flagged cargo ship after it tried to sail towards an Iranian port and ignored warnings. President Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews the situation is 'going fine' and that US forces are in 'total control' of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran holds firm on conditions
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on social media that the strait stays closed until Washington ends the war, releases frozen Iranian assets and agrees a regional ceasefire, directly contradicting Washington's claim of control.
Pakistan mediating in Tehran
Pakistan's interior minister visited Tehran this week as part of efforts to mediate an end to the US-Israel war on Iran and unblock the strait, though no breakthrough has been announced.
Curve pulls back from Monday's spike
UK gas eased across the forward curve at Tuesday's close, with Win-26 down 2.9% to 4.95p/kWh, unwinding some of Monday's Ormen Lange-driven surge. UK power held close to flat at the front (Win-26 +0.3% to 12.23p/kWh) but softened in every season further out, down as much as 3.7% for Sum-27.
2 · GENERATION
Britain's grid operator has warned of a tight margin tonight as today's solar eclipse cuts output during a heatwave demand peak.
Rare summer margin notice
National Energy System Operator issued an electricity margin notice for Wednesday evening, forecasting a shortfall of close to 1.8GW from 5pm as today's partial solar eclipse cuts solar output just as heatwave-driven evening demand builds. Commentators noted it as a rare, possibly first-ever, summer margin notice of this kind.
Wind and solar carry the morning
Solar and wind together supplied over 40% of Britain's power this morning, with net interconnector imports of 7.6GW, led by France, also helping meet demand of 31.4GW.
System stays balanced for now
Gas-fired generation was providing under 9% of the mix as of this morning's reading, with nuclear steady at around 12% and biomass at around 8%. The tighter test comes this evening as solar falls away during the eclipse just as demand builds.
3 · OIL
Brent crude has held close to recent highs even as talk of a Hormuz deal resurfaces, with traders still doubtful an agreement will stick.
Brent holds elevated
Brent crude has stayed close to recent highs this week, trading around $88.70 into Tuesday's close, as prospects for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to fade over the weekend despite earlier signals from Washington that a deal was close.
Deal talk keeps swinging
Oil has repeatedly swung between optimism and pessimism on headlines about the strait; Trump signalled last week that any agreement would include the 'immediate, complete and total opening' of Hormuz, a claim Tehran has yet to match.
Qatari LNG still under force majeure
QatarEnergy's force majeure on Ras Laffan LNG output, in place since Iranian strikes damaged two production trains in March, remains extended through the end of August, continuing to squeeze the LNG cargoes Europe needs to help refill storage.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 11 August 2026

11 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.23	+0.34%	4.95	-2.85%
Sum-27	8.07	-3.65%	3.11	-4.35%
Win-27	8.39	-1.67%	3.10	-3.38%
Sum-28	6.40	-1.89%	2.30	-3.19%
Win-28	7.17	-1.85%	2.55	-2.38%
Sum-29	6.22	-1.55%	2.08	-1.02%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 11 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Interconnectors7.60 GW24.2%

Solar6.70 GW21.3%

Wind6.36 GW20.2%

Nuclear3.79 GW12.1%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)2.78 GW8.8%

Biomass2.40 GW7.6%

Hydro + pumped0.22 GW0.7%

Other1.58 GW5.0%

As of 12 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

59.4%

5yr norm

76.7%

-17.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 10 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-2.12%JKM▼-0.35%Brent▲+1.36%WTI▲+1.30%UK carbon▲+0.19%EU carbon▲+0.20%FTSE 100▼-0.17%GBPUSD▲+0.01%GBPEUR▲+0.04%Gold▼-0.49%TTF▼-2.12%JKM▼-0.35%Brent▲+1.36%WTI▲+1.30%UK carbon▲+0.19%EU carbon▲+0.20%FTSE 100▼-0.17%GBPUSD▲+0.01%GBPEUR▲+0.04%Gold▼-0.49%

Global gasiTTF▼-2.12%JKM▼-0.35%

OiliBrent▲+1.36%WTI▲+1.30%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.19%EU carbon▲+0.20%

FTSE 100i▼-0.17%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.01%GBPEUR▲+0.04%

Goldi▼-0.49%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 11 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.