Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 11 August 2026 · Generated 09:45 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power surged again into Monday's close after Norway's Ormen Lange field lost supply until February and Washington and Tehran hardened their positions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, pushing TTF and Brent higher too.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 jumped over 9% into Monday's close on the Ormen Lange outage

UK Power▲

Power followed gas up more than 4%, extending Monday's rally

EU Storage▼

59.1% full, 17.3pp under the 5-year norm

Market bias

Firm, strong upside riskSofter · Firmer

Lost Norwegian supply and a hardening Iran standoff are pushing the front of the curve higher.

UK gas Win-26

5.09p/kWh

+9.16% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

12.19p/kWh

+4.35% day-on-day

EU gas storage

59.1% full

17.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

60.46EUR/MWh

+3.6% on the day

Brent crude

89.89$/bbl

+2.4% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · SUPPLY
Norway's Ormen Lange gas field will stay throttled until February, extending its outage by months and driving Monday's sharp jump in UK gas and power.
A second extension
Shell has pushed back the return of Ormen Lange's missing compressor capacity from October to 1 February 2027, keeping the Norwegian field's output around 40% below normal for the rest of the outage.
Around 11 cargoes' worth
The extra four months without the roughly 9 mcm/d of lost flow works out at just over 1.1 billion cubic metres of gas that will not reach the European system, equivalent to around 11 LNG cargoes.
A sharp turn from Friday's sell-off
The news landed on top of an already firming market and reversed a heavy sell-off from Friday, sending UK gas and power sharply higher into Monday's close.
Storage refill feels the pinch
With EU storage still running behind the seasonal norm, a prolonged Norwegian shortfall adds to the pressure on this autumn's stock-building, even though the headline fill number is not today's story.
2 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran named a hardline new security chief as Washington and Tehran traded compensation demands, pushing any Strait of Hormuz reopening further away.
A new hand on security policy
Iran's supreme leader appointed Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander, as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council on Monday, replacing Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr and placing a hardliner at the centre of Tehran's war decisions.
Compensation now cuts both ways
Tehran had demanded Washington pay for war damage as a condition of reopening the Strait of Hormuz; President Trump responded by demanding Iran compensate the US for casualties from strikes and roadside bombs, hardening the standoff.
Hormuz still effectively closed
The strait has been shut in practice since the war began in February, and Iran's parliament is separately weighing a plan to bar US and Israeli-linked vessels from transiting even once talks conclude.
Markets read it as delay
Traders took the appointment and the tit-for-tat compensation demands as a sign that a near-term reopening is less likely, adding a geopolitical premium on top of the Ormen Lange-driven move.
3 · GENERATION
Solar and imports carried Britain's power again this morning, with light wind on a still summer day leaving gas to help fill the gap.
Solar leads a mixed morning
Solar supplied just over a fifth of Britain's power by mid-morning, the largest single source, with gas and nuclear each providing a little over an eighth to help balance the system.
Imports carry more than a quarter
Interconnectors, led by the French link, brought in over a quarter of demand between them, continuing the heavy reliance on imports seen through recent weeks.
Wind stays quiet
Light wind on a settled, still morning left turbines contributing a little over a tenth of power, well down on the wind-driven mornings seen earlier in the week.
Demand steady for August
Total demand held at a seasonally normal 29.6 GW for a Tuesday morning in August, with no unusual strain on the system.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 10 August 2026

10 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.19	+4.35%	5.09	+9.16%
Sum-27	8.38	+2.92%	3.26	+4.83%
Win-27	8.53	+2.56%	3.21	+4.86%
Sum-28	6.52	+1.84%	2.38	+4.04%
Win-28	7.30	+1.71%	2.61	+3.25%
Sum-29	6.32	+0.46%	2.10	+1.46%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 10 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Interconnectors8.05 GW27.2%

Solar6.52 GW22.0%

Nuclear3.80 GW12.8%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.74 GW12.6%

Wind3.27 GW11.1%

Biomass2.44 GW8.2%

Hydro + pumped0.28 GW0.9%

Other1.50 GW5.1%

As of 11 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

59.1%

5yr norm

76.4%

-17.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 9 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+11.00%JKM▲+0.69%Brent▲+4.99%WTI▲+5.05%UK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-1.21%FTSE 100▼-0.35%GBPUSD▲+0.11%GBPEUR▲+0.21%Gold▲+1.08%TTF▲+11.00%JKM▲+0.69%Brent▲+4.99%WTI▲+5.05%UK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-1.21%FTSE 100▼-0.35%GBPUSD▲+0.11%GBPEUR▲+0.21%Gold▲+1.08%

Global gasiTTF▲+11.00%JKM▲+0.69%

OiliBrent▲+4.99%WTI▲+5.05%

CarboniUK carbon▼-2.46%EU carbon▼-1.21%

FTSE 100i▼-0.35%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.11%GBPEUR▲+0.21%

Goldi▲+1.08%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 10 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.