Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 30 July 2026 · Generated 09:40 BST · Past 24 hours

The US hit Iran with its heaviest strikes yet overnight, in retaliation for Tuesday's missile attack on American forces, and UK gas and power carry a sharp jump into Wednesday's close as a result. Gas has eased back a touch today on a tanker's safe transit of the Strait, but the Gulf risk premium is not going away.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 closed Wednesday up 4.67% on the day

UK Power▲

Power tracked gas higher, +3.84% at Wednesday's close

EU Storage▼

56.1% full, 15.8pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, escalation risk skewed higherSofter · Firmer

Fresh US strikes on Iran overnight keep a Gulf-disruption premium in the market even after gas and power jumped hard into Wednesday's close.

UK gas Win-26

5.01p/kWh

+4.67% at Wednesday's close

UK power Win-26

12.40p/kWh

+3.84% at Wednesday's close

EU gas storage

56.1% full

15.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

59.53EUR/MWh

-1.7% on the day

Brent crude

91.48$/bbl

+0.8% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
The US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran overnight, retaliating for Tuesday's missile attack on American forces, as the region's conflict widens further.
Heaviest exchange since the pause
US Central Command said its forces struck dozens of IRGC targets in Iran early Thursday, hitting missile and drone facilities, coastal defences and command centres, in retaliation for Tuesday's Iranian missile attack on the US base at Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan and on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes followed days of apparent, ultimately abortive, US-Iran contact.
Conflict widens beyond Iran
Kuwait said an Iranian strike hit a building belonging to a Chinese company in the country's north, killing one worker, while Jordan also reported being targeted. The US and Saudi Arabia carried out joint strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, widening the confrontation beyond the two principal combatants.
Hormuz still shut, but cracks appearing
The Strait of Hormuz has now been closed to normal commercial transit for 151 days, running at roughly a tenth of its usual traffic, though a Qatari LNG tanker was reported to have exited safely this week, the first such passage since one of Qatar's vessels was attacked. QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on European cargoes to the end of September regardless.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power surged into Wednesday's close as the market priced in the missile attack on US forces, with Brent crude spiking alongside them.
Forward curve jumps on the scare
UK gas for winter 2026 closed Wednesday at 5.01p/kWh, up 4.67% on the day, with power up 3.84% to 12.40p/kWh, as the market priced in Tuesday's missile attack on US forces and the risk of a broader Gulf disruption. The move was broad-based, with every season out to summer 2029 firmer on the day.
TTF eases, Brent still elevated
European TTF eased back to around 59.5 EUR/MWh, down roughly 1.7% today, as reports of a Qatari tanker's safe transit gave the market some reassurance even as the fresh US strikes were confirmed. Brent crude held close to $91.5/bbl, still up on the day and well above levels seen before Tuesday's missile attack.
Ofgem's price cap already reflects the strain
The domestic price cap rose 13% from 1 July, with Ofgem citing higher wholesale gas prices from the Middle East conflict as the main driver; gas-heavy bills rose by around 24% against a smaller 5% rise for electricity, a reminder that this run of wholesale moves is already reaching end consumers.
3 · POWER SYSTEM
Interconnector imports and solar are supplying around 40% of Britain's power today, with wind soft and gas still setting the price at the margin.
Imports and solar carry the load
GridWatch showed UK demand at 30.49GW this morning, with interconnectors supplying around 7.7GW, a quarter of demand and led by France and Denmark, and solar contributing a further 4.95GW; together they accounted for over 40% of generation.
Wind stays soft
Wind output was just 4.49GW, under 15% of demand, continuing the subdued pattern seen through most of the summer. Gas-fired generation supplied a broadly similar 4.67GW, and nuclear output remained relatively low at 3.56GW.
Gas still sets the price at the margin
With wind light and nuclear output constrained, gas-fired plant remains the marginal price-setter on the system, which is one reason the day's sharp forward moves in gas are feeding so directly into the UK power curve.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 29 July 2026

29 Jul 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.40	+3.84%	5.01	+4.67%
Sum-27	8.45	+0.11%	3.28	+2.34%
Win-27	8.63	+1.33%	3.22	+1.65%
Sum-28	6.46	-0.25%	2.35	+1.67%
Win-28	7.23	+0.08%	2.60	+1.52%
Sum-29	6.27	-0.24%	2.10	+1.58%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 29 July 2026.

UK generation mixi

Interconnectors7.69 GW25.2%

Solar4.95 GW16.2%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.67 GW15.3%

Wind4.49 GW14.7%

Nuclear3.56 GW11.7%

Biomass2.67 GW8.8%

Hydro + pumped0.34 GW1.1%

Other2.12 GW7.0%

As of 30 July 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

56.1%

5yr norm

71.9%

-15.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 28 July 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+7.49%JKM▲+0.49%Brent▲+7.91%WTI▲+6.56%UK carbon▼-0.09%EU carbon▲+0.36%FTSE 100▲+0.34%GBPUSD▲+0.63%GBPEUR▼-0.13%Gold▲+0.94%TTF▲+7.49%JKM▲+0.49%Brent▲+7.91%WTI▲+6.56%UK carbon▼-0.09%EU carbon▲+0.36%FTSE 100▲+0.34%GBPUSD▲+0.63%GBPEUR▼-0.13%Gold▲+0.94%

Global gasiTTF▲+7.49%JKM▲+0.49%

OiliBrent▲+7.91%WTI▲+6.56%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.09%EU carbon▲+0.36%

FTSE 100i▲+0.34%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.63%GBPEUR▼-0.13%

Goldi▲+0.94%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 29 July 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.