Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 5 August 2026 · Generated 09:50 BST · Past 24 hours

Oil and gas eased back as signs of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz built through Tuesday. A public rift between Netanyahu and Washington over Gaza disarmament, plus a deepening heat-driven squeeze on European nuclear output, are reminders the de-escalation is not yet secure.

UK Gas▼

NBP front season eased around 2.5% at the last close as Hormuz relief built

UK Power▼

Power followed gas lower, front season down around 2.1%

EU Storage▼

57.7% full, 16.4pp below the 5-year norm

Market bias

Easing, risks not fully priced outSofter · Firmer

Hormuz diplomacy pulled gas and power off last week's highs, but Gaza and nuclear-supply risk keep a floor under the market.

UK gas Win-26

4.68p/kWh

-2.49% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

11.73p/kWh

-2.08% day-on-day

EU gas storage

57.7% full

16.4pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

54.58EUR/MWh

-5.09% on the day

Brent crude

78.75$/bbl

lower on the day, off around 13% on the week

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Signs of progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased oil and gas prices, though Tehran has not confirmed a breakthrough is close.
Diplomacy gathers pace
Trump described an 'all-day negotiation' with Iran on Tuesday and said the Strait of Hormuz was 'going to be open very soon', while Secretary of State Rubio reported progress and Treasury Secretary Bessent floated a deal as early as this week.
Tehran keeps its distance
Iran has denied any direct talks with Washington even as it describes Oman-mediated discussions on the strait as proceeding 'positively', leaving the exact shape of any deal unclear.
Market reaction
UK gas and power both eased around 2% at the last close as the risk premium built through last week began to unwind, with Brent crude down more sharply, off around 13% on the week and briefly trading below $79 a barrel.
Flows still constrained
Physical relief is lagging the diplomacy. Qatari LNG cargoes through the strait only resumed in earnest on 30 July after weeks of disruption, and Pakistan is only now lining up August deliveries, a reminder that a deal on paper will take time to show up in cargo flows.
2 · MIDDLE EAST
Netanyahu publicly rejected the Gaza disarmament and withdrawal plan brokered by Washington, casting fresh doubt on the ceasefire deal's survival.
A rare public rift
Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israeli forces will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas has fully disarmed, distancing himself from the Trump-brokered plan and stating plainly that Israel did not agree to it.
The disputed deal
The plan announced by Trump's Board of Peace on 31 July envisaged Hamas beginning to disarm in return for an Israeli pullback from roughly 60% of Gaza that it currently holds; Netanyahu's comments cast doubt on that sequencing.
Toll continues to climb
Israeli strikes have continued through the ceasefire period, with health authorities in Gaza reporting more than 1,200 people killed since the October 2025 truce, and Netanyahu himself faces a tough re-election fight in October.
Why it matters for markets
A ceasefire that unravels would revive the same Middle East risk premium that has driven this year's gas and oil volatility, so today's rift is a reminder that the de-escalation trade seen in the Hormuz talks is not yet secure.
3 · GENERATION
Europe's nuclear fleet is buckling under heat and drought, with reactors curtailed across France, Hungary, Romania, Switzerland and Bulgaria.
A six-plant squeeze
Around 15 reactors across France, Hungary, Romania, Switzerland and Bulgaria have been shut, curtailed or placed under output restrictions since a record drought pushed river temperatures too high for safe cooling.
France worst affected
EDF has shut Golfech 2 and curtailed units at Bugey, Nogent-sur-Seine, Saint Alban and Blayais, in a country that normally leans on nuclear for around 70% of its power.
Knock-on across the region
Hungary's Paks plant faced a 72-hour countdown to a full shutdown of its 2GW capacity, while Romania's Cernavoda and Switzerland's Beznau have both had units taken offline or cycled to half power.
Grid operators plug the gap
The missing nuclear output is being replaced with fossil generation, faster imports, solar surges and demand-reduction measures, keeping the strain largely off retail prices for now but adding another call on gas-fired plant just as the market tries to price in Hormuz relief.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 4 August 2026

4 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	11.73	-2.08%	4.68	-2.49%
Sum-27	8.05	-1.77%	3.05	-0.67%
Win-27	8.16	-1.88%	3.04	-0.40%
Sum-28	6.29	-0.66%	2.27	+0.55%
Win-28	6.99	-1.45%	2.53	+0.61%
Sum-29	6.20	-0.50%	2.08	+1.35%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 4 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind12.46 GW41.1%

Interconnectors4.69 GW15.5%

Solar4.60 GW15.2%

Nuclear3.95 GW13.0%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)1.59 GW5.2%

Biomass1.15 GW3.8%

Hydro + pumped0.12 GW0.4%

Other1.77 GW5.8%

As of 5 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

57.7%

5yr norm

74.1%

-16.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 3 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-3.90%JKM▼-0.38%Brent▼-5.26%WTI▼-5.69%UK carbon▲+0.95%EU carbon▲+0.60%FTSE 100▲+0.20%GBPUSD▲+0.15%GBPEUR▼-0.05%Gold▲+0.58%TTF▼-3.90%JKM▼-0.38%Brent▼-5.26%WTI▼-5.69%UK carbon▲+0.95%EU carbon▲+0.60%FTSE 100▲+0.20%GBPUSD▲+0.15%GBPEUR▼-0.05%Gold▲+0.58%

Global gasiTTF▼-3.90%JKM▼-0.38%

OiliBrent▼-5.26%WTI▼-5.69%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.95%EU carbon▲+0.60%

FTSE 100i▲+0.20%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.15%GBPEUR▼-0.05%

Goldi▲+0.58%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 4 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.