Energy Market Briefing
Oil and continental gas are climbing back today after Iran flatly denied any peace talks are under way with Washington, unwinding the weekend's relief rally and underlining that the Strait of Hormuz, closed for over five months, is nowhere near reopening despite Trump's talk of an imminent deal.
UK Gas▼
NBP Win-26 eased into Monday's close as de-escalation hopes built
UK Power▼
Power tracked gas lower into Monday's close
EU Storage▲
57.1% full, 16.6pp below the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firmer, upside risk rebuildingSofter · Firmer
Brent and TTF are both climbing today as Iran's denial of US talks dims hopes of a swift Hormuz reopening.
UK gas Win-26
4.80p/kWh
-1.9% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
11.98p/kWh
-1.6% day-on-day
EU gas storage
57.1% full
16.6pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
59.74EUR/MWh
+3.9% on the day
Brent crude
85.71$/bbl
+2.3% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSOil and gas are climbing back today after Iran flatly denied any peace talks are under way with Washington, unwinding the weekend's relief rally.
Talks claimed, denied
Trump said US-Iran talks were under way and called it Tehran's "last chance" to sign a deal, but Iran's foreign ministry said on Monday that no negotiations with Washington were taking place or scheduled, only talks with Oman over the strait.
Prices reverse
Brent crude and Dutch TTF gas both fell sharply into Monday's close on hopes of a swift de-escalation, then rebounded on Tuesday, up around 2% and 4% respectively, as Iran's denial dimmed those hopes and supply risk returned to the fore.
Supply cushion
Seven OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to raise their combined output quota by 188,000 barrels a day from September, a modest supply-side offset to the Gulf risk premium building elsewhere in the market.
2 · SHIPPINGThe Strait of Hormuz remains shut after five months, with fresh attack reports overnight complicating Trump's claim of an imminent reopening.
Strait still closed
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since the conflict began in late February, with daily transits still running at a fraction of the roughly 88 vessels a day seen before the crisis.
Fresh attacks reported
A cargo vessel was reportedly struck in the Omani sector of the strait on Tuesday, with unverified single-source reports of an Iranian strike near a US base in Kuwait also complicating the diplomatic picture.
Reopening odds slim
Market-implied odds put the chance of a full reopening by the end of August at only around one in seven, despite Trump's claim that phase one, opening the strait, could be agreed within days.
3 · MIDDLE EASTGaza's fragile ceasefire hit a fresh snag as Israel pushed back on Hamas disarmament terms, keeping the wider Middle East risk premium alive.
Disarmament plan wobbles
Trump's Board of Peace said on 31 July that Hamas and other militant groups had agreed to disarm, and the Al-Quds Brigades consented on 2 August, but a senior Hamas figure said disarmament depends on an Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction progress.
Ceasefire violations continue
Despite the truce in place since October 2025, Israeli strikes killed at least 18 Palestinians on Sunday, the heaviest daily toll in weeks, and the Palestinian Authority says the deal's second phase "remains on paper".
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 3 August 2026
3 Aug 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 11.98 | -1.61% | 4.80 | -1.89% |
| Sum-27 | 8.20 | -1.25% | 3.07 | -3.59% |
| Win-27 | 8.32 | -1.86% | 3.05 | -3.63% |
| Sum-28 | 6.34 | -0.66% | 2.26 | -2.98% |
| Win-28 | 7.09 | -1.46% | 2.52 | -2.53% |
| Sum-29 | 6.23 | -0.54% | 2.06 | -1.91% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 3 August 2026.
UK generation mixi
Interconnectors6.93 GW21.4%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.68 GW20.6%
Wind5.60 GW17.3%
Solar4.22 GW13.0%
Nuclear3.85 GW11.9%
Biomass2.67 GW8.2%
Hydro + pumped0.18 GW0.6%
Other2.30 GW7.1%
As of 4 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.
EU gas storagei
-16.6pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 1 August 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-1.11%JKM▼-0.91%Brent▼-7.05%WTI▼-5.11%UK carbon▼-0.45%EU carbon▼-0.48%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▼-0.39%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.29%TTF▼-1.11%JKM▼-0.91%Brent▼-7.05%WTI▼-5.11%UK carbon▼-0.45%EU carbon▼-0.48%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▼-0.39%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.29%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▼-1.11%JKM▼-0.91%Brent▼-7.05%WTI▼-5.11%UK carbon▼-0.45%EU carbon▼-0.48%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▼-0.39%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.29%TTF▼-1.11%JKM▼-0.91%Brent▼-7.05%WTI▼-5.11%UK carbon▼-0.45%EU carbon▼-0.48%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▼-0.39%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▲+0.29%
Global gasiTTF▼-1.11%JKM▼-0.91%
OiliBrent▼-7.05%WTI▼-5.11%
CarboniUK carbon▼-0.45%EU carbon▼-0.48%
FTSE 100i▼-0.10%
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.39%GBPEUR▼-0.09%
Goldi▲+0.29%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 3 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.