Energy Market Briefing

President Trump said he had called off an imminent attack on Iran and confirmed talks would resume on Monday afternoon, though he set no deadline for a deal (Trump remarks reported by CNBC and CBS News, 2 to 3 August 2026).

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Tehran was not currently in direct talks with Washington and was instead negotiating a safe passage route through the strait with Oman (Alex's market news email, 3 August 2026, and Al Jazeera reporting).

TTF fell to around 57.35 EUR/MWh, down roughly 2.9% on the day, while Brent crude dropped to about 84.21 dollars a barrel, down some 4.2%, as traders priced in the prospect of a resolution and normalising tanker flows (Investing.com, 3 August 2026).

Israeli forces continued to bombard Gaza over the weekend, with health authorities reporting a record rise in killings in July, keeping the wider negotiating backdrop fragile (Alex's market news email, 3 August 2026).

The Bermuda-flagged Gaslog Shanghai was struck by an unidentified projectile near Limah, Oman, late on 31 July, causing an engine-room fire and a complete power blackout; no crew were injured and UKMTO has not attributed responsibility (UKMTO advisory via Maritime Executive and gCaptain, 1 to 2 August 2026).

A tanker reported a nearby explosion in the strait on Sunday, with UKMTO confirming the vessel and crew were safe; shipping data showed strait traffic slowing further into Monday (Alex's market news email, 3 August 2026).

Oman has proposed a two-route system, a free-navigation southern corridor in its own waters and a permission-based northern corridor in Iranian waters, but Iran says the plan does not go far enough and has tabled a counterproposal giving Tehran more control (Al Jazeera and Jerusalem Post reporting, late July to 3 August 2026).

Iran's lead negotiator has said the strait will not return to pre-war conditions and that Iran plans to start charging fees for maritime services once a sixty-day toll-free window expires around 17 August.

The EU gas storage aggregate stood at 57.1% full as of 1 August, against a five-year seasonal norm of 73.4% for the date, a gap of 16.3 percentage points (energiedashboard.ch open data API, 3 August 2026).

Persistent disruption to Middle Eastern LNG loadings, including the latest Hormuz tanker strikes, has removed a meaningful share of global LNG supply, and analysts say Europe will need higher LNG imports through the autumn to close the gap to the 90% winter target (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and ACER research, July 2026).

The formal filling target for winter 2026/27 remains 90% of capacity by 1 December, with the European Commission's flexibility allowing member states to reduce that to a minimum of 80% if conditions warrant.