Energy Market Briefing

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said early on Friday that it had struck US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, in retaliation for a US strike on a building on Iran's Qeshm Island. It is a further widening of the tit-for-tat exchanges that began with Tuesday's Iranian missile attack on US forces and Wednesday's heavy US retaliation.

Tehran's Revolutionary Guards repeated on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and warned that the aggressor would be punished, keeping the core oil and gas transit risk for the region unresolved despite diplomatic noise elsewhere.

Egypt reported a drone strike on Wednesday that set two ships on fire in the port of Damietta, which, if confirmed as deliberate, would be the first time Egypt has been directly drawn into the fighting. Iraq's prime minister has denied advance knowledge of separate US-Saudi strikes on Iran-aligned militias inside Iraq.

UK gas for Win-26 fell 3.1% and power 2.3% at Thursday's close, the first material pullback this week, as Trump's comments about a good chance of progress in talks with Tehran encouraged some profit-taking after the sharp early-week rally. Iran has publicly denied holding direct talks with Washington, so the diplomatic read remains unconfirmed.

The move was consistent across the front six seasons: Sum-27 gas eased 2.5% and Win-27 1.7%, with power down a smaller 1.35% and 1.4% respectively, so the curve richened mainly at the front end rather than reflecting a genuine change to the medium-term supply picture.

Brent crude fell a further 1.2% to $85.82 a barrel on 31 July, its second daily fall in a row, while TTF was little changed at EUR58.34/MWh, suggesting oil is doing more of the repricing on Gulf risk than European gas for now.

Riyadh's defence ministry said 14 countries have backed its proposal for a Maritime Defence Alliance to protect shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a direct response to the disruption risk building around Gulf shipping lanes.

Separately, President Trump said his Gaza Board of Peace has reached an agreement with Hamas on disarmament, and Trump and Netanyahu met at the White House for the first time since the Iran war began, both signs that Washington is trying to manage several regional tracks at once even as the Iran conflict itself escalates.