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Energy Market Briefing
Gulf security risk is back in the driving seat: Saudi Arabia's warning of imminent coordinated attacks pushed UK gas and power sharply higher into Thursday's close, and that risk has now materialised, with a Houthi attack wounding civilians in Saudi Arabia's Najran region and an Iraqi militia deadline to hit back for US-Saudi strikes expiring today. EU storage refill remains the weakest for early August in around eighteen years, while strong wind and solar are keeping British demand comfortably covered.
UK Gas▲
NBP Win-26 +6.0% at Thursday's close as Gulf risk returns
UK Power▲
Power follows gas higher, Win-26 +3.8% on the day
EU Storage▲
58.1% full, 16.8pp under norm, weakest for early August in ~18yrs
Market bias
Firm, Gulf risk premium buildingSofter · Firmer
The Najran attack and an expired Iraqi militia deadline are keeping a fresh risk premium in gas and power.
UK gas Win-26
4.67p/kWh
+6.0% day-on-day
UK power Win-26
11.66p/kWh
+3.8% day-on-day
EU gas storage
58.1% full
16.8pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
53.62EUR/MWh
+2.3% on the day
Brent crude
83.34$/bbl
+4.9% on the day
Today's headlines
1 · GEOPOLITICSA Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia and an expired Iraqi militia deadline have kept Gulf supply risk elevated, even after this week's Hormuz deal.
Saudi Arabia attacked
A Houthi missile and drone strike hit Najran province in southern Saudi Arabia on Thursday, wounding eleven civilians including Saudi, Yemeni, Egyptian and Pakistani nationals, days after Riyadh warned of a coordinated assault.
Iraqi deadline expires
The Iraqi Islamic Resistance's week-long deadline for Baghdad to respond to joint US-Saudi strikes on pro-Iran militia positions expired today. Iraq has raised its military alert level, though a senior militia figure urged restraint.
Hormuz deal still conditional
Iran and Oman have agreed provisional coordinates for a safe shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran says it will not open the waterway until the US lifts its naval blockade and halts strikes on Iranian territory.
Munitions and Gaza context
Trump said the war with Iran would end "pretty soon" while denying reports of a stretched US munitions stockpile. Separately, a Hamas disarmament framework for Gaza has been announced but is not yet confirmed by Israel.
2 · STORAGEEU gas storage refilling remains the slowest for early August in around eighteen years, leaving Europe more exposed heading into the autumn shoulder season.
Record-low pace continues
EU storage stood at 58.1% full on 5 August, around 16.8 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm, making this the weakest early-August level in close to two decades.
Refill window narrowing
With the winter 2026/27 target set at 90% of capacity by 1 December, or 80% under Commission flexibility, the shortfall leaves little room for a further slip before the injection season ends.
Germany and Netherlands lag hardest
Country breakdowns continue to show Germany and the Netherlands among the most exposed heading into the autumn, adding to concerns that the deficit could keep a floor under prices through winter.
3 · GENERATIONWind and solar are supplying nearly 40% of British power this morning, keeping the generation mix low-carbon and gas subdued.
Renewables lead the mix
Solar supplied around 22% and wind around 18% of British generation this morning, with gas-fired CCGT down to about 12%, according to GridWatch data recorded at 09:40 BST.
Imports add further cushion
Net interconnector flows added further low-carbon supply, led by France, Denmark's Viking link and the Dutch interconnector, while Ireland's Moyle link and the East-West interconnector were net exporting.
Demand comfortably covered
Total GB demand stood at 29.35GW, comfortably met without needing coal, which remained offline, underlining how mild conditions and strong renewables output are keeping the system relaxed.
French heatwave still a watch item
France's third heatwave of the summer has kept reactors offline at Golfech, Bugey and Chooz on river-cooling limits, and forecasters see another heatwave building across Europe again next week.
Forward curve & seasonal movesi
UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 6 August 2026
6 Aug 2026
| Season | Power | Δ | Gas | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win-26 | 11.66 | +3.75% | 4.67 | +6.02% |
| Sum-27 | 8.10 | +2.83% | 3.09 | +4.43% |
| Win-27 | 8.39 | +3.94% | 3.06 | +3.20% |
| Sum-28 | 6.35 | +1.85% | 2.30 | +3.98% |
| Win-28 | 7.24 | +3.86% | 2.55 | +3.37% |
| Sum-29 | 6.28 | +1.72% | 2.08 | +2.62% |
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 6 August 2026.
UK generation mixi
Solar6.56 GW22.4%
Interconnectors6.36 GW21.7%
Wind5.17 GW17.6%
Nuclear3.98 GW13.6%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.60 GW12.3%
Biomass2.13 GW7.3%
Hydro + pumped0.17 GW0.6%
Other1.38 GW4.7%
As of 7 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.
EU gas storagei
-16.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 5 August 2026.
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+6.00%JKM▲+1.08%Brent▲+3.83%WTI▲+2.75%UK carbon▲+1.07%EU carbon▲+1.00%FTSE 100▼-0.19%GBPUSD▼-0.10%GBPEUR▲+0.16%Gold▼-0.15%TTF▲+6.00%JKM▲+1.08%Brent▲+3.83%WTI▲+2.75%UK carbon▲+1.07%EU carbon▲+1.00%FTSE 100▼-0.19%GBPUSD▼-0.10%GBPEUR▲+0.16%Gold▼-0.15%
Other commoditiesi
TTF▲+6.00%JKM▲+1.08%Brent▲+3.83%WTI▲+2.75%UK carbon▲+1.07%EU carbon▲+1.00%FTSE 100▼-0.19%GBPUSD▼-0.10%GBPEUR▲+0.16%Gold▼-0.15%TTF▲+6.00%JKM▲+1.08%Brent▲+3.83%WTI▲+2.75%UK carbon▲+1.07%EU carbon▲+1.00%FTSE 100▼-0.19%GBPUSD▼-0.10%GBPEUR▲+0.16%Gold▼-0.15%
Global gasiTTF▲+6.00%JKM▲+1.08%
OiliBrent▲+3.83%WTI▲+2.75%
CarboniUK carbon▲+1.07%EU carbon▲+1.00%
FTSE 100i▼-0.19%
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.10%GBPEUR▲+0.16%
Goldi▼-0.15%
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 6 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.