Energy Market Briefing

Monday 10 August 2026 · Generated 09:46 BST · Friday afternoon plus the weekend

Gulf risk is back in the driving seat: talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled and Iran struck another tanker over the weekend, keeping TTF and Brent pushing higher even as UK forward prices simply hold onto last week's gains.

UK Gas•

NBP front season barely changed, holding last week's Gulf-driven gains

UK Power•

Power tracks gas, little changed but still elevated on the risk premium

EU Storage▼

58.8% full, 17.2pp below the 5yr norm as refill lags

Market bias

Firm, Gulf risk premium rebuildingSofter · Firmer

Stalled Hormuz talks and another tanker strike are driving prompt gas and oil, while UK forwards sit steady on last week's move.

UK gas Win-26

4.66p/kWh

-0.03% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

11.68p/kWh

+0.21% day-on-day

EU gas storage

58.8% full

17.2pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

57.35EUR/MWh

+3.2% on the day

Brent crude

84.62$/bbl

+1.3% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Strait of Hormuz talks have stalled again after Iran struck another tanker, with Washington stepping back and Tehran demanding tougher terms to reopen the route.
Talks stall again
Strait of Hormuz negotiations between the US, Iran and Oman have stalled. President Trump said on Sunday that Washington is now "only semi-negotiating" with Tehran, watching Iran's economic weakness rather than pushing for a deal.
Iran sets harder conditions
The head of Iran's supreme national security council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, says the strait stays shut until the US meets six conditions, including a permanent end to the war and to action against its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq. Tehran is also seeking compensation for war damage.
Another tanker targeted
The UAE says Iran struck an ADNOC tanker with a missile in the strait on Saturday 8 August, the sixteenth such attack on the firm's vessels since the war began. There were no casualties, but the UAE and Qatar have condemned the strike and warned it puts the talks at risk.
Red Sea and Gaza backdrop
Houthi rebels attacked the port city of Mocha in Yemen twice in 24 hours over the weekend, raising the risk of a second front opening on the Red Sea. Separately, Israel's Netanyahu rejected the US Gaza peace plan on Sunday and vowed to stay until Hamas disarms.
Market reaction
Brent crude is at $84.62 a barrel, up 1.3% on the day and over 5% across the last three sessions. TTF prompt gas is up 3.2% at 57.35 EUR/MWh. UK forward prices are little changed, holding last week's risk-premium gains rather than adding fresh ground.
2 · STORAGE
Europe's gas storage refill is unusually slow this summer, leaving stocks under 60% full and exposed heading into a tense autumn for Gulf supply risk.
Fill lags for the time of year
EU gas storage stood at 58.8% full as of 8 August, according to the live Swiss energy dashboard feed, some 17.2 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 76.0% for this date.
Refill pace among the weakest in years
Recent reporting from Bloomberg and the EU's ACER agency describes net injections running at a three-year low and stocks at an 18-year seasonal low, after Europe entered the summer injection season only around 28% full following a colder-than-expected end to winter.
Winter target still some way off
The EU's target for winter 2026/27 is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce it to a minimum of 80%. At the current pace of injections, some analysts see stocks reaching only around 80% by 1 November, leaving little cushion.
Why it matters now
With Gulf supply risk elevated again, a thin storage buffer leaves European gas prices more exposed to any further disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz or to Gulf LNG cargoes.
3 · GENERATION
Wind and solar together supplied over a third of Britain's power this morning, keeping demand comfortably met without any coal generation.
Wind and solar carry over a third of demand
Britain's grid drew 31.22GW of demand at 09:40 BST. Wind supplied 15.1% and solar 20.2%, together over a third of the total, while gas-fired generation covered 15.8% and nuclear 12.2%.
No coal on the system
Coal and open-cycle gas generation were both at zero. Biomass added 7.8% and hydro plus pumped storage a further 0.7%.
Imports doing heavy lifting
Net interconnector flows added around 23% of demand, led by the French, Norwegian and Danish links, partly offset by exports down the Irish Moyle and East-West interconnectors.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 7 August 2026

7 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	11.68	+0.21%	4.66	-0.03%
Sum-27	8.14	+0.58%	3.11	+0.46%
Win-27	8.32	-0.92%	3.06	+0.08%
Sum-28	6.40	+0.88%	2.29	-0.61%
Win-28	7.18	-0.75%	2.53	-0.75%
Sum-29	6.29	+0.21%	2.07	-0.54%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 7 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Interconnectors7.30 GW23.4%

Solar6.32 GW20.2%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.92 GW15.8%

Wind4.70 GW15.1%

Nuclear3.82 GW12.2%

Biomass2.44 GW7.8%

Hydro + pumped0.23 GW0.7%

Other1.49 GW4.8%

As of 10 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

58.8%

5yr norm

76.0%

-17.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing a reduction to a minimum of 80%. As of 8 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-1.74%JKM▼-0.12%Brent▲+1.29%WTI▲+1.15%UK carbon▲+1.70%EU carbon▲+1.69%FTSE 100▲+0.31%GBPUSD▲+0.26%GBPEUR▼-0.02%Gold▲+2.42%TTF▼-1.74%JKM▼-0.12%Brent▲+1.29%WTI▲+1.15%UK carbon▲+1.70%EU carbon▲+1.69%FTSE 100▲+0.31%GBPUSD▲+0.26%GBPEUR▼-0.02%Gold▲+2.42%

Global gasiTTF▼-1.74%JKM▼-0.12%

OiliBrent▲+1.29%WTI▲+1.15%

CarboniUK carbon▲+1.70%EU carbon▲+1.69%

FTSE 100i▲+0.31%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.26%GBPEUR▼-0.02%

Goldi▲+2.42%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 7 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.