Energy Market Briefing

Friday 14 August 2026 · Generated 09:49 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power gave back some of Wednesday's jump at Thursday's close, even as Washington vowed to keep blockading Iran indefinitely and previewed tougher sanctions, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed further. EU storage refill remains stuck near its slowest pace in years, still well short of the seasonal norm with just over three months left before the winter target.

UK Gas▼

NBP front season eased 0.9% at Thursday's close

UK Power▼

Power front season fell in step with gas, -0.5%

EU Storage▲

59.9% full, 17.6pp below the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, upside risk from the Hormuz standoffSofter · Firmer

Blockade rhetoric hardens and storage stays tight, even though forward prices eased back a touch at Thursday's close.

UK gas Win-26

5.09p/kWh

-0.86% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

12.48p/kWh

-0.45% day-on-day

EU gas storage

59.9% full

17.6pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

61.41EUR/MWh

+1.67% on the day

Brent crude

87.90$/bbl

+0.95% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
The US says it can blockade Iran indefinitely and is preparing tougher sanctions, even as UK gas and power eased back from Wednesday's jump.
Blockade to run indefinitely
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the navy can keep its blockade of Iranian ports going indefinitely by rotating ships in and out, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previewed a fresh round of economic measures against Tehran that he described as unlike anything seen before.
Iran disputes US claims
Iran continues to deny Washington's claim that it controls the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting President Trump's assertion of "total control" and insisting no vessel passes without its own authorisation.
Carrier swap under way
The US Navy is preparing to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, deployed to the Gulf for more than 200 days, with the USS George Washington as part of a scheduled Middle East rotation.
Shipping keeps thinning out
Vessel transits through the Strait fell to a one-week low on Wednesday, far below both the five-day average and the level seen before the US and Israel struck Iran in February.
UK market pulls back a little
UK gas and power gave back some of Wednesday's gains at Thursday's close even as the rhetoric hardened, a reminder that this week's rally has not been a one-way move.
2 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is now just under 60% full, still well short of where it should be with winter approaching.
Fill and gap to norm
EU gas storage stood at 59.9% full as of 12 August, still 17.6 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm for the date.
Winter target
The bloc is working towards 90% of capacity by 1 December, with European Commission flexibility allowing member states to bring that down to a minimum of 80% if refilling proves difficult.
Why refilling is slow
Elevated prices linked to the Gulf conflict have blunted the financial incentive to inject gas into storage, even as the summer refill season runs down towards autumn.
Norway adds to the squeeze
Norway's Ormen Lange field remains throttled by around 40% after a subsea compressor failure, with the outage now extended to 1 February 2027, keeping one more source of supply constrained heading into winter.
3 · OIL
Oil is holding near its highest level in weeks as shrinking demand forecasts clash with the ongoing Gulf supply risk.
Forecasters cut demand again
The IEA and OPEC both lowered their 2026 oil demand outlooks again this month, citing the prolonged Gulf conflict and elevated prices for increasingly weighing on consumption.
Brent near its highs
Brent held close to its strongest levels in weeks on Friday, supported by the continuing Strait of Hormuz blockade and the sharp fall in shipping through the waterway.
Supply outlook cut too
The IEA also trimmed its global oil supply forecast for 2026, with growth from the Americas only partly offsetting losses in the Middle East and Russia.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 13 August 2026

13 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.48	-0.45%	5.09	-0.86%
Sum-27	8.28	-0.16%	3.26	+0.68%
Win-27	8.54	+0.54%	3.20	+0.12%
Sum-28	6.45	-1.13%	2.36	-0.18%
Win-28	7.28	+0.43%	2.61	+0.18%
Sum-29	6.25	-1.11%	2.10	+0.25%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 13 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Interconnectors7.80 GW23.8%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)7.76 GW23.7%

Solar5.84 GW17.8%

Nuclear3.80 GW11.6%

Wind3.76 GW11.5%

Biomass1.88 GW5.7%

Hydro + pumped0.26 GW0.8%

Other1.69 GW5.2%

As of 14 August 2026, 09:45 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

59.9%

5yr norm

77.5%

-17.6pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 12 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+0.23%JKM▼-0.21%Brent▼-2.15%WTI▼-2.43%UK carbon▲+1.08%EU carbon▲+0.90%FTSE 100▼-0.56%GBPUSD▼-0.05%GBPEUR▼-0.07%Gold▼-1.29%TTF▲+0.23%JKM▼-0.21%Brent▼-2.15%WTI▼-2.43%UK carbon▲+1.08%EU carbon▲+0.90%FTSE 100▼-0.56%GBPUSD▼-0.05%GBPEUR▼-0.07%Gold▼-1.29%

Global gasiTTF▲+0.23%JKM▼-0.21%

OiliBrent▼-2.15%WTI▼-2.43%

CarboniUK carbon▲+1.08%EU carbon▲+0.90%

FTSE 100i▼-0.56%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.05%GBPEUR▼-0.07%

Goldi▼-1.29%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 13 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.