Energy Market Briefing

Monday 17 August 2026 · Generated 09:46 BST · Friday afternoon through the weekend

The Iran-US truce framework lapsed overnight with Tehran shifting to a more offensive posture and Hormuz shipping grinding to a complete halt, keeping UK gas and power firm into Friday's close and Brent holding most of last week's sharp gain, while EU storage still runs well behind the seasonal norm heading into the autumn refill push.

UK Gas▲

NBP front season +1.5% at Friday's close

UK Power▲

Power front season +1.0%, gas sets the pace

EU Storage•

60.8% full, 17.8pp under the seasonal norm

Market bias

Firm, upside risk from the Hormuz escalationSofter · Firmer

Driven by the lapsed Iran-US truce framework, a halted Strait of Hormuz and a firmer EIA outlook for lost Gulf supply.

UK gas Win-26

5.16p/kWh

+1.5% into Friday's close

UK power Win-26

12.60p/kWh

+1.0% into Friday's close

EU gas storage

60.8% full

17.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

62.08EUR/MWh

+1.1% on the day

Brent crude

88.31$/bbl

-0.2% on the day, still up over 5% on the week

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran's US truce framework has lapsed and Tehran is shifting to a more offensive posture, with Hormuz shipping grinding to a complete halt this weekend.
MOU expires, deadlock deepens
Monday marked 60 days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding calling for a wider deal within that window. It expired today with no agreement reached, and senior IRGC commander Brigadier General Yadollah Javani said Iran's defensive posture is shifting to an offensive one under a new "maximum deterrence" policy.
Hormuz traffic grinds to a halt
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed further over the weekend, with tracking firm Kpler recording no transits at all through the waterway on Sunday. President Trump said he intends to declare the strait US territory "pretty soon", a claim Iran's deputy foreign minister rejected outright on Friday, insisting the strait "will remain Iranian".
Wider regional picture
Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least eleven people on Saturday and the IDF said it had killed a senior Hezbollah commander. Jared Kushner met Hamas leaders in Egypt on Sunday to discuss a US-backed Gaza peace plan that Israel's prime minister had rejected the week before.
2 · OIL & SUPPLY
The US energy agency now expects Gulf oil losses to run into next year, keeping Brent elevated after last week's sharp climb.
EIA lifts its Gulf shut-in estimate
The US Energy Information Administration's August Short-Term Energy Outlook, published 11 August, raised its estimate of Middle East shut-in crude production compared with its July forecast, citing continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits. It expects around 0.6 million barrels a day of that disruption to persist into 2027 even as most regional output recovers by early next year.
Brent holds most of its gain
Brent crude traded at $88.31 a barrel on Friday, down 0.2% on the day but still up more than 5% over the week, as the Hormuz standoff and the EIA's tighter Gulf outlook kept a floor under prices.
UK gas and power follow through
The move fed through to UK markets: the NBP Win-26 season closed Friday at 5.16p/kWh, up 1.5% on the day, while UK power's front season closed at 12.60p/kWh, up 1.0%, with gas continuing to set the price for power.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is still running behind normal for this point in the year, a gap that matters more with Gulf supply already stretched.
Refill still lagging the norm
EU gas storage stood at 60.8% full as of 16 August, against a five-year seasonal norm of 78.6% for 17 August, a gap of 17.8 percentage points and a touch wider than the 17.6 point gap reported at the end of last week.
Winter target still 90%, with room to flex
The EU's filling target for winter 2026/27 remains 90% of capacity by 1 December, with European Commission flexibility allowing member states to bring that down to a minimum of 80% if needed.
Gulf risk adds to the pressure
With Hormuz shipping at a standstill and the EIA now expecting Gulf supply losses to run into next year, Europe's LNG-dependent restocking effort has less room for error than usual heading into the autumn injection season.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 14 August 2026

14 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.60	+0.96%	5.16	+1.48%
Sum-27	8.35	+0.82%	3.28	+0.79%
Win-27	8.57	+0.33%	3.23	+0.98%
Sum-28	6.49	+0.71%	2.37	+0.48%
Win-28	7.28	+0.10%	2.63	+0.81%
Sum-29	6.28	+0.53%	2.12	+0.64%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 14 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)13.56 GW41.5%

Interconnectors5.55 GW17.0%

Solar4.26 GW13.1%

Nuclear4.16 GW12.7%

Biomass2.64 GW8.1%

Wind0.55 GW1.7%

Hydro + pumped0.48 GW1.5%

Other1.44 GW4.4%

As of 17 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

60.8%

5yr norm

78.6%

-17.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 16 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+0.03%JKM▲+0.11%Brent▲+1.67%WTI▲+1.42%UK carbon▼-0.21%EU carbon▼-1.17%FTSE 100▼-0.21%GBPUSD▲+0.33%GBPEUR•0.00%Gold▲+0.59%TTF▲+0.03%JKM▲+0.11%Brent▲+1.67%WTI▲+1.42%UK carbon▼-0.21%EU carbon▼-1.17%FTSE 100▼-0.21%GBPUSD▲+0.33%GBPEUR•0.00%Gold▲+0.59%

Global gasiTTF▲+0.03%JKM▲+0.11%

OiliBrent▲+1.67%WTI▲+1.42%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.21%EU carbon▼-1.17%

FTSE 100i▼-0.21%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.33%GBPEUR•0.00%

Goldi▲+0.59%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 14 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.