Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 18 August 2026 · Generated 09:46 BST · Past 24 hours

Gas and power firmed into Monday's close as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepened over the weekend, and the tension has escalated further this morning, with a vessel struck in the strait and Trump threatening to bomb Oman over its role in the mooted transit talks.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 firmed further into Monday's close on Hormuz risk

UK Power▲

Gas sets the price, Win-26 power tracked it higher

EU Storage▼

61.1% full, still well below the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, upside risk from Hormuz escalationSofter · Firmer

A fresh strike in the strait and thin EU storage keep the risk skewed higher.

UK gas Win-26

5.21p/kWh

+0.86% into Monday's close

UK power Win-26

12.73p/kWh

+1.06% into Monday's close

EU gas storage

61.1% full

17.9pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

62.22EUR/MWh

+1.3% on the day

Brent crude

90.97$/bbl

+0.1%, elevated on Gulf risk

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
A vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump threatened to bomb Oman as the fragile Iran-Oman transit plan comes under fresh strain.
Vessel struck in the strait
A vessel was hit by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, damaging its engine room and injuring a crew member. UKMTO said the Omani coastguard was assisting the remaining crew.
Trump threatens Oman
President Trump said the US would bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of American efforts in the strait, repeating a threat he first made to the Gulf state in May.
A transit deal under strain
The threat lands as Oman and Iran had been closing in on a temporary arrangement to route inbound and outbound shipping through separate lanes, brokered with Qatari, Pakistani and Saudi involvement. Tehran says talks continue but remain complex.
MoU deadline lapses
The 60-day US-Iran memorandum agreed in June expired on Monday without a wider deal, and Trump said Iran should "put up the white flag". Iran's Revolutionary Guard says its posture is shifting from defensive to a "maximum deterrence" footing.
2 · MIDDLE EAST
Kushner and Netanyahu agreed Hamas must disarm before Israeli forces leave Gaza, with a US general proposed to oversee the process.
Disarmament before withdrawal
Jared Kushner and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu agreed that Israeli forces will not leave Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed, with a US general proposed to oversee the process, following Kushner's earlier talks with a Hamas leader in Egypt.
Political constraints
Netanyahu told Kushner that moving further on the wider framework is politically difficult ahead of Israel's October Knesset election, while Hamas says it has accepted the road map and wants mediators to compel Israel to sign on.
Why it matters for energy
A durable Gaza settlement would remove one strand of the wider Middle East risk premium priced into oil and gas, though the disarmament timeline remains unresolved and untested in practice.
3 · SUPPLY SECURITY
Russia and Ukraine traded some of the war's largest strikes on energy infrastructure over the weekend, keeping supply security in focus.
Large weekend exchange
Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks of the war against Russian military and energy sites over the weekend, killing at least six people in Russia, while Russian strikes on Ukraine killed seven and wounded dozens more.
Energy infrastructure targeted again
Both sides again aimed at each other's energy facilities, continuing a pattern of long-range strikes that has periodically disrupted Russian refining and Ukrainian power and gas infrastructure through the war.
Market relevance
The exchange keeps European supply security in the background of pricing even though Russian pipeline gas no longer flows to the EU in volume, reinforcing the wider risk premium alongside the Gulf crisis.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 17 August 2026

17 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	12.73	+1.06%	5.21	+0.86%
Sum-27	8.42	+0.85%	3.29	+0.36%
Win-27	8.66	+1.04%	3.25	+0.50%
Sum-28	6.48	-0.14%	2.37	-0.30%
Win-28	7.28	-0.03%	2.63	-0.11%
Sum-29	6.25	-0.49%	2.10	-0.75%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 17 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)10.00 GW31.2%

Wind8.88 GW27.7%

Nuclear4.33 GW13.5%

Solar3.02 GW9.4%

Biomass2.50 GW7.8%

Interconnectors1.18 GW3.7%

Hydro + pumped0.24 GW0.8%

Other1.88 GW5.9%

As of 18 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

61.1%

5yr norm

79.0%

-17.9pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 16 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+1.71%JKM▲+1.87%Brent▲+2.65%WTI▲+2.55%UK carbon▲+0.31%EU carbon▼-0.25%FTSE 100▼-0.28%GBPUSD▲+0.10%GBPEUR▼-0.04%Gold▲+0.90%TTF▲+1.71%JKM▲+1.87%Brent▲+2.65%WTI▲+2.55%UK carbon▲+0.31%EU carbon▼-0.25%FTSE 100▼-0.28%GBPUSD▲+0.10%GBPEUR▼-0.04%Gold▲+0.90%

Global gasiTTF▲+1.71%JKM▲+1.87%

OiliBrent▲+2.65%WTI▲+2.55%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.31%EU carbon▼-0.25%

FTSE 100i▼-0.28%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.10%GBPEUR▼-0.04%

Goldi▲+0.90%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 17 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.