Energy Market Briefing

Monday 24 August 2026 · Generated 09:40 BST · Friday afternoon plus the weekend

Washington's toughest Iran sanctions yet landed today, and Tehran is warning of ship seizures in the Strait of Hormuz in response. Oil has eased back from last week's highs on profit-taking, but UK gas and power are holding onto Friday's gains and EU storage remains well behind normal for the time of year.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 firmed further, +0.9% into Friday's close

UK Power▲

Win-26 power tracked gas higher, +0.8% into Friday's close

EU Storage▼

61.7% full, 19.3pp behind the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, elevated upside riskSofter · Firmer

Iran sanctions land and Hormuz stays near-shut, keeping the risk premium elevated even as oil eases back today.

UK gas Win-26

5.60p/kWh

+0.9% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

13.44p/kWh

+0.8% day-on-day

EU gas storage

61.7% full

19.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

66.60EUR/MWh

+1.1% on the day

Brent crude

93.09$/bbl

-1.4% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Washington unveiled its toughest Iran sanctions yet today, targeting Tehran's oil, banking and trade networks as the economic D-Day campaign begins.
Economic D-Day
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent used a Financial Times article on Sunday to promise an economic D-Day against Iran, then followed up with a press conference on Monday setting out sanctions aimed at Tehran's oil exports, banking system and the foreign firms and governments still trading with it.
Tehran's response
Iran dismissed the sanctions as an admission of Washington's failure and said the measures would fail as previous blockades and strikes have, even as its economy strains under existing curbs on oil exports and a fuel subsidy bill it can barely afford.
Wider pressure campaign
The new measures build on an already extensive sanctions regime covering Iran's banking, energy, aviation and cryptocurrency sectors, and Washington is pressing allies including China to join the effort rather than continue offering Tehran a commercial lifeline.
2 · SUPPLY SECURITY
Iran warned it could seize ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz just as the new sanctions land, keeping the near-shut waterway in sharp focus.
Ship seizure threat
Iran warned that vessels violating its transit rules in the Strait of Hormuz risk detention or confiscation, a fresh threat that lands just as the US sanctions take effect and keeps tension in the waterway at its highest since the war began.
Shipping still barely moving
Commercial traffic through the strait remains a fraction of its pre-war level, with only a handful of vessels making the crossing each day against the hundred plus that used to pass through before the closure began in late February.
Norway's outage adds to the squeeze
Separately, Shell's Ormen Lange field remains around 40% below capacity after a compressor failure, with the outage now extended to February, adding to the strain on Europe's gas balance heading into winter.
3 · MARKETS
Oil eased back from last week's highs as traders banked profits ahead of the sanctions detail, while UK gas and power held onto recent gains.
Oil pulls back
Brent crude eased to around $93 a barrel, down roughly 1.4% on the day, as investors banked some of last week's sharp gains ahead of the sanctions announcement, even though the physical squeeze on Gulf supply is unchanged.
Gas and power hold firm
UK gas and power closed Friday still higher across the curve, with the winter-26 season up close to 1% on the day in both markets, as the risk premium built through the crisis continued to support prices.
TTF extends its climb
European TTF gas pushed further above 66 EUR/MWh, up around 1% on the day, as the market continues to price in constrained LNG availability while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 21 August 2026

21 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	13.44	+0.79%	5.60	+0.87%
Sum-27	9.03	+1.63%	3.61	+0.45%
Win-27	9.10	+1.23%	3.53	+0.38%
Sum-28	6.70	+0.59%	2.50	+0.65%
Win-28	7.53	+1.87%	2.74	+1.39%
Sum-29	6.40	+0.41%	2.13	+0.54%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 21 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Solar6.57 GW21.7%

Interconnectors6.30 GW20.8%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.70 GW15.5%

Nuclear4.46 GW14.7%

Wind3.34 GW11.0%

Biomass2.91 GW9.6%

Hydro + pumped0.21 GW0.7%

Other1.81 GW6.0%

As of 24 August 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

61.7%

5yr norm

81.0%

-19.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 22 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.77%JKM▲+2.38%Brent▲+2.36%WTI▲+2.33%UK carbon▼-0.12%EU carbon▲+0.90%FTSE 100▲+0.04%GBPUSD▲+0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.22%Gold▼-0.07%TTF▲+3.77%JKM▲+2.38%Brent▲+2.36%WTI▲+2.33%UK carbon▼-0.12%EU carbon▲+0.90%FTSE 100▲+0.04%GBPUSD▲+0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.22%Gold▼-0.07%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.77%JKM▲+2.38%

OiliBrent▲+2.36%WTI▲+2.33%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.12%EU carbon▲+0.90%

FTSE 100i▲+0.04%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.22%

Goldi▼-0.07%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 20 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.