Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 1 September 2026 · Generated 09:46 BST · Since Friday morning

Iran has widened its response to the weekend's US strikes, hitting bases in the UAE as well as Jordan and mining a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz, sending gas and oil to their highest levels in years even though UK forward prices, still showing Friday's close, have not yet caught up.

UK Gas▼

NBP Win-26 eased 2.3% at Friday's close, before the weekend escalation

UK Power▼

Power Win-26 tracked gas 1.9% lower into the same close

EU Storage▲

65.1% full, 18.2pp below the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, strong upside riskSofter · Firmer

A widening Hormuz conflict and gas and oil at multi-year highs point to sustained upward pressure.

UK gas Win-26

5.64p/kWh

-2.3% at Friday's close

UK power Win-26

13.51p/kWh

-1.9% at Friday's close

EU gas storage

65.1% full

18.2pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

71.32EUR/MWh

+2.2% on the day

Brent crude

92.12$/bbl

+4.2% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran widened its retaliation for the weekend's US strikes, hitting bases in the UAE as well as Jordan, and mined a supertanker in Hormuz.
Exchange widens beyond Jordan
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it struck US military bases in both Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for Sunday night's American strikes on Iranian rocket launchers in the strait, the first direct exchange of fire between the two sides in about a month.
Supertanker disabled by mines
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker caught fire on Monday after striking two naval mines while using a route south of the strait that Tehran considers unauthorised, and warned other vessels ignoring its navigation rules would face the same fate.
Trump threatens a hard response
President Trump said the US would "hit them hard" in response to the Iranian strikes, though he later told reporters any military response would be narrow in scope.
Shipping still crippled
Traffic through the strait remains far below the roughly 130 to 140 transits a day seen before the war, and Iranian media reported a Saudi oil tanker was stopped in the strait's southern corridor on Monday, though Riyadh has not confirmed the incident.
2 · MARKETS
European gas and oil have surged to their highest levels in years as the Hormuz conflict widens further.
Oil at its highest in months
Brent crude was trading at $92.12 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up 4.2% on the day, as the widening conflict deepened concerns over sustained disruption to flows through the strait.
European gas nears its highest since 2023
The Dutch TTF benchmark was trading at 71.32 EUR/MWh, up 2.2% on the day and close to its highest level since January 2023, as traders weighed the risk to LNG cargoes transiting the region.
UK forwards still reflect Friday's close
The UK NBP Win-26 season eased 2.3% and power eased 1.9% into Friday's close, before this weekend's escalation; today's seasonal moves table has not yet updated to reflect the latest trading day.
Household bills already rising
Ofgem's price cap for October to December has been lifted around 4% on higher wholesale gas costs tied to the Middle East crisis, pointing to a three-year high for typical household bills this winter.
3 · EU STORAGE
EU gas storage keeps refilling but remains well short of both the seasonal norm and the winter target, with time running short before the season turns.
Fill keeps climbing
EU gas storage reached 65.1% full as of 30 August, according to the Swiss energy dashboard's live storage series drawn from Gas Infrastructure Europe data, continuing a steady summer refill.
Still well behind the norm
The five-year seasonal norm for 1 September stands at 83.3%, putting the EU around 18 percentage points behind normal for the date and among the lowest levels for the time of year in over a decade.
90% target getting tighter
Brussels' winter 2026/27 filling target remains 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to fall back to a minimum of 80% if conditions make full refilling difficult, and that cushion is looking increasingly likely to be needed as the season moves on.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 28 August 2026

28 Aug 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	13.51	-1.88%	5.64	-2.32%
Sum-27	9.21	-0.16%	3.72	-0.09%
Win-27	9.30	+1.09%	3.62	+0.57%
Sum-28	6.72	-0.03%	2.52	+0.57%
Win-28	7.59	+0.03%	2.77	+0.60%
Sum-29	6.39	-0.20%	2.16	+1.00%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 28 August 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind8.14 GW26.3%

Solar5.67 GW18.3%

Nuclear4.96 GW16.0%

Interconnectors3.43 GW11.1%

Biomass3.15 GW10.2%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.05 GW9.9%

Hydro + pumped0.14 GW0.5%

Other2.40 GW7.8%

As of 1 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

65.1%

5yr norm

83.3%

-18.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 30 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-2.86%JKM▼-1.00%Brent▼-0.43%WTI▼-0.16%UK carbon▲+0.62%EU carbon▲+0.38%FTSE 100▲+0.29%GBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▲+0.19%Gold▼-3.22%TTF▼-2.86%JKM▼-1.00%Brent▼-0.43%WTI▼-0.16%UK carbon▲+0.62%EU carbon▲+0.38%FTSE 100▲+0.29%GBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▲+0.19%Gold▼-3.22%

Global gasiTTF▼-2.86%JKM▼-1.00%

OiliBrent▼-0.43%WTI▼-0.16%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.62%EU carbon▲+0.38%

FTSE 100i▲+0.29%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.43%GBPEUR▲+0.19%

Goldi▼-3.22%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 28 August 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.