Energy Market Briefing

US strikes killed five people at a wedding party in Iran, with Tehran vowing "crushing and devastating blows" in response. Iranian state media reported explosions across Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, with strikes also hitting civilian sites in Hormozgan province and an airport in Kerman.

The US military struck two Iranian government tankers, marking the first time Tehran's own tankers have been targeted in the conflict, alongside the wider wave of strikes.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched ballistic missiles at a US Marine Corps base near the Gulf of Aqaba in Jordan. The Jordanian army said it intercepted ten missiles, with three others landing in remote areas and no confirmed casualties.

President Trump said he wants "total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing," a marked hardening in rhetoric that raises the risk of further escalation.

The strait remains effectively closed to routine commercial traffic, with only a handful of transits a day against roughly 85 normally. The US military is running a quiet nightly corridor of 15 to 20 tankers along the Omani coast, moving around half of pre-war volumes.

Brent crude was trading around $94.75 a barrel, little changed on the day but hovering at its highest levels in nearly six weeks after surging past $95 intraday on the fresh strikes.

TTF rose to around 74 EUR/MWh, up 2.17% on the day, its highest level since January 2023, as traders weighed the risk to LNG flows through the strait.

UK NBP Win-26 rose 7.91% to 6.09 p/kWh and UK power Win-26 rose 6.34% to 14.36 p/kWh at the 1 September close, extending gains as the conflict widened over the long weekend.

EU gas storage stood at 65.4% full as of 31 August, continuing its steady climb through late summer.

That leaves storage 18.2 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average of 83.6% for this date, though the gap has held roughly steady rather than widening further.

The winter 2026/27 filling target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states down to a minimum of 80%. At the current pace, reaching 90% without leaning on that flexibility is looking increasingly stretched.