Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 3 September 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Iran struck Kuwait and Bahrain with missiles and drones overnight, extending the Gulf crisis, but a Wall Street Journal report that Trump is weighing declaring the war over capped further gains after Tuesday's much sharper surge. UK gas and power both firmed again at the close, Brent held just below $96 and the EU storage refill continues to lag the seasonal norm.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 up over 2% again as Gulf risk persists

UK Power▲

Power Win-26 up over 2%, gas still setting the floor

EU Storage▼

65.4% full, 18.4pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, easing upside riskSofter · Firmer

Prices extended their advance but at a slower pace as markets weigh signs the conflict could wind down.

UK gas Win-26

6.23p/kWh

+2.3% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

14.73p/kWh

+2.5% day-on-day

EU gas storage

65.4% full

18.4pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

73.4EUR/MWh

-0.4% on the day

Brent crude

95.37$/bbl

-0.3% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran struck Kuwait and Bahrain with missiles and drones overnight, as Washington weighs declaring the war over while quietly extending troop deployments.
Kuwait and Bahrain come under fire
Kuwait's military said its air defences engaged missiles and drones overnight that it blamed on Iran, while Iranian state television said Tehran was targeting US bases in Kuwait in retaliation for American strikes. Bahrain also reported drone activity, extending a run of attacks on Gulf states that began with a strike on a US base in Jordan over the weekend.
Trump signals two minds on the war
The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has privately discussed declaring the Iran war over, a move he reportedly favours, betting that sustained economic pressure will force Tehran to abandon its nuclear programme or collapse. Yet the Pentagon is quietly extending troop deployments in the Middle East, a sign the conflict could run well into next year even as the president talks publicly of a swift end.
Shipping still short of normal
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz have risen more than 30% over the past week as tankers and gas carriers test the route again, and the US says it has cleared all mines from the main shipping lanes. Even so, throughput remains below pre-war levels and the strait continues to register some of the most acute disruption signals of the crisis.
2 · SANCTIONS
Washington is rolling out fresh sanctions on Iran's oil, shipping and gold trade, promising maximum pressure while insisting the conflict will not drag on.
Washington widens the pressure campaign
The US Energy Secretary said an expanded sanctions push targeting Iran's economic partners, launched last week as Operation Economic Outcast, would deliver maximum pressure. It targets Iran's oil, shipping, aviation, gold, technology and digital asset sectors.
Trump plays down a quick end
Trump told reporters the renewed fighting would not last too long, while warning the US military stands ready to strike Iran again at any time, a message that sits awkwardly alongside the Pentagon's extended deployment plans.
Oil holds a Gulf risk premium
Brent crude has held close to $95 a barrel, near its highest in almost six weeks, as traders keep a war premium priced into the market despite a modest pullback on the day.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage refill has fallen further behind normal, still around 65% full, as the push toward the winter target gets tougher.
Refill keeps losing ground to the norm
EU gas storage stood at 65.4% full as at 31 August, the latest confirmed reading, some 18.4 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average for the date and continuing to trail last year's level.
Winter target reachable only with flexibility
Brussels' 90% filling target for 1 December looks increasingly stretching at the current pace, and member states are expected to lean on the Commission's flexibility clause allowing a minimum of 80% rather than hit the full mark outright.
Gulf risk adds to the refill headache
Reduced LNG availability tied to the wider Gulf disruption is an added drag on an already slow injection season, keeping upward pressure on prices even though the physical shortfall has not worsened sharply overnight.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 2 September 2026

2 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	14.73	+2.53%	6.23	+2.27%
Sum-27	9.96	+2.65%	4.15	+3.84%
Win-27	10.02	+2.34%	4.03	+4.30%
Sum-28	7.06	+1.70%	2.70	+2.62%
Win-28	7.87	-1.24%	2.96	+2.98%
Sum-29	6.57	+3.01%	2.29	+2.91%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 2 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind13.55 GW42.2%

Nuclear4.95 GW15.4%

Solar3.19 GW9.9%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.16 GW9.8%

Interconnectors3.15 GW9.8%

Biomass2.52 GW7.9%

Hydro + pumped0.16 GW0.5%

Other1.39 GW4.3%

As of 3 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

65.4%

5yr norm

83.8%

-18.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states down to 80%. As of 31 August 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+1.20%JKM▲+0.61%Brent▲+1.04%WTI▲+0.88%UK carbon▲+0.85%EU carbon▲+0.86%FTSE 100▼-0.30%GBPUSD▼-0.23%GBPEUR▼-0.21%Gold▲+1.33%TTF▲+1.20%JKM▲+0.61%Brent▲+1.04%WTI▲+0.88%UK carbon▲+0.85%EU carbon▲+0.86%FTSE 100▼-0.30%GBPUSD▼-0.23%GBPEUR▼-0.21%Gold▲+1.33%

Global gasiTTF▲+1.20%JKM▲+0.61%

OiliBrent▲+1.04%WTI▲+0.88%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.85%EU carbon▲+0.86%

FTSE 100i▼-0.30%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.23%GBPEUR▼-0.21%

Goldi▲+1.33%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 2 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.