Energy Market Briefing

The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump has privately discussed declaring the Iran war over, believing sustained economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to give up its nuclear programme, even as the Pentagon quietly extends troop deployments in the Middle East. Vice President JD Vance downplayed the conflict on Friday, saying there was no active shooting right now and declining to give any timeline for when it might end.

Iran's first vice president warned that Tehran's retaliation for US strikes will be asymmetrical and multi-layered, and the death toll from a US strike on a wedding party in Sirik has risen to five. Kuwait and Bahrain both reported their air defences responding to Iranian drone and missile attacks earlier in the week.

Commercial transits remain a fraction of the roughly 85 vessels a day seen before the crisis, and major shipping lines including COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd continue rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. South Korea says it is reviewing military options to help support freedom of navigation through the strait.

EU gas storage stood at 65.8% full as of 2 September, continuing a steady climb through late August, but that leaves it 18.3 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 84.1% for this point in the year.

The EU's filling target for winter 2026/27 is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce that to a minimum of 80%. Closing an 18-point gap in three months will need sustained strong injections through the autumn.

The persistent shortfall against the norm is a key reason the forward curve has stayed firm through the summer, and it limits how far gas and power can fall even on a day when geopolitical risk eases.

Wind supplied 14.12GW of Britain's 30.06GW demand as of 09:40, close to half the total, while gas-fired generation (CCGT and OCGT combined) ran at just 3.00GW, around a tenth of demand.

Nuclear contributed 4.34GW and biomass 2.23GW, providing steady baseload alongside the wind-led renewables mix, with solar adding a further 2.37GW.

Net imports via the French, Belgian, Dutch and Danish interconnectors added around 3.4GW, partly offset by exports on the Irish and Welsh links.