Energy Market Briefing

Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran will declare an exclusion zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz within days, targeting vessels attempting to transit the waterway from the line of the US naval blockade. Ships identified entering the zone face Iranian sanctions.

US Central Command said it struck three Iranian oil tankers on Friday, including one near the Kharg Island export hub, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy vessels. Iran responded by targeting three tankers it said were on unauthorised routes through the Strait, plus three US-linked vessels elsewhere.

Commercial transits through the Strait remain a fraction of the roughly 85 vessels a day seen before the conflict, with several vessels observed transiting on Sunday with their AIS transponders switched off. Iran's top negotiator has warned of a heavier response to any further US strikes.

Winter 2026 closed at 6.12p/kWh for gas and 14.55p/kWh for power on Friday, both up on the day, with most seasons out to summer 2029 also firmer. Those are the levels behind this report's tiles and forward table; the market has moved again since, so treat them as the last confirmed close rather than this morning's price.

TTF gas rose above 73 EUR/MWh on Monday, its highest level in more than three and a half years, as investors weighed the risk of wider disruption to Gulf energy flows. UK NBP has climbed for a fourth consecutive week.

Brent crude traded near 96 dollars a barrel on Monday, building on last week's near 8% gain after the US and Iran exchanged strikes. WTI has moved in step.

The AAA national average for diesel reached 5.85 dollars a gallon on Friday, a new record, up more than 55% since the Iran war began in late February. The diesel crack spread, the premium refined product commands over crude, climbed to an all-time high above 106 dollars a barrel.

Wars in Iran and Ukraine have between them shut refineries with around 5 million barrels a day of capacity, Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the crude side and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian plants on the product side. Moscow is considering extending its diesel export ban to 1 October to protect domestic supply.

Shell's Ormen Lange field remains around 40% below capacity after a compressor failure in July, with the outage now extended to early February 2027. The lost Norwegian volumes complicate Europe's refill push into a winter that is already short of gas.