Energy Market Briefing

Friday 11 September 2026 · Generated 09:46 BST · Past 24 hours

Yemen's Houthis have seized the Red Sea port of Mocha and are pushing toward the Bab al-Mandeb strait, opening a second shipping chokepoint alongside a Strait of Hormuz that Iran's navy targeted again overnight. UK gas and power both jumped into Thursday's close on the news, and Saudi Arabia's oil output has now collapsed to its lowest level in thirty-six years, even though prompt gas and crude have eased back a little today.

UK Gas▲

NBP front season closed up almost 4% on Thursday

UK Power▲

Power tracked gas higher, up over 3% at the close

EU Storage▲

67.6% full, 17.9pp below the 5-year norm

Market bias

Firm, strong upside riskSofter · Firmer

A second chokepoint threat and a 36-year low in Saudi output outweigh today's modest pullback in prompt prices.

UK gas Win-26

7.03p/kWh

+4.0% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

16.40p/kWh

+3.4% day-on-day

EU gas storage

67.6% full

17.9pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

80.32EUR/MWh

-2.1% on the day

Brent crude

104.60$/bbl

lower on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Yemen's Houthis have seized the Red Sea port of Mocha, tightening their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint as Hormuz remains effectively shut.
Houthis seize Mocha
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis seized the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, advancing to within around 75km of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, according to reporting from Al Jazeera, CNN and the Times of Israel. The advance raises fears that the fragile 2022 truce with the internationally recognised Yemeni government has collapsed.
Hormuz still closed
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said its navy struck a US 'Saildrone-type' unmanned vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, while the UK's Maritime Trade Operations centre reported projectiles hitting two vessels off the coast of Oman (Alex Bannon's market news note, 11 September). Hormuz remains effectively shut to normal traffic more than six months into the war.
No sign of de-escalation
President Trump said he does not regret going to war with Iran despite the toll the conflict is taking on the run-up to November's midterms. There is no indication either side is preparing to stand down on either front.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power jumped into Thursday's close on the widening conflict, though oil and European gas have eased back a little today.
Forward curve jumps
UK gas and power both closed up close to 4% on Thursday, with the front winter season leading the move as the Houthi advance and the fresh Hormuz incidents added a new risk premium to the curve.
Prompt gas eases back
European TTF prompt gas has slipped around 2% today to 80.32 EUR/MWh, a partial pullback after four straight sessions of gains that had taken it to its highest level since December 2022 (tradingeconomics.com).
Oil off its highs
Brent crude is down close to 3% today at 104.60 $/bbl, easing back from a near four-month high above $108 reached earlier this week, though the broader trend remains firmly higher on the war (tradingeconomics.com).
3 · SUPPLY
Saudi Arabia's oil output has collapsed to its lowest level in thirty-six years, as the war chokes off the kingdom's export routes.
Saudi output at a 36-year low
Saudi Arabia's crude production fell by around 1.9 million barrels a day in August to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest level reported to OPEC since 1990, as the kingdom's Hormuz-dependent export routes remain choked off (Al-Monitor, Reuters reporting).
Exports hit even harder
Saudi crude exports slumped to around 3.2 million barrels a day in August, the lowest in more than a decade, underlining how far the kingdom's usual Gulf export routes have been cut off by the war.
Qatar still rerouting LNG
QatarEnergy remains largely unable to move cargoes through Hormuz on normal schedules, with its LNG fleet continuing to reposition rather than resume regular flows, and deliveries to some European buyers, including Italy's Edison, still suspended into November (Bloomberg, Euronews).

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 10 September 2026

10 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	16.40	+3.39%	7.03	+3.99%
Sum-27	10.80	+3.93%	4.66	+4.23%
Win-27	10.87	+3.03%	4.41	+3.33%
Sum-28	7.11	+0.88%	2.78	+2.04%
Win-28	8.06	+1.43%	3.01	+1.79%
Sum-29	6.76	+1.98%	2.31	+1.59%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 10 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind6.48 GW20.3%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.25 GW19.6%

Interconnectors5.42 GW17.0%

Solar4.76 GW14.9%

Nuclear3.69 GW11.6%

Biomass3.23 GW10.1%

Hydro + pumped0.51 GW1.6%

Other1.58 GW5.0%

As of 11 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

67.6%

5yr norm

85.5%

-17.9pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 9 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.53%JKM▲+0.53%Brent▲+6.34%WTI▲+6.69%UK carbon▲+1.52%EU carbon▲+0.32%FTSE 100▼-0.57%GBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▼-0.02%Gold▼-1.93%TTF▲+3.53%JKM▲+0.53%Brent▲+6.34%WTI▲+6.69%UK carbon▲+1.52%EU carbon▲+0.32%FTSE 100▼-0.57%GBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▼-0.02%Gold▼-1.93%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.53%JKM▲+0.53%

OiliBrent▲+6.34%WTI▲+6.69%

CarboniUK carbon▲+1.52%EU carbon▲+0.32%

FTSE 100i▼-0.57%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▼-0.02%

Goldi▼-1.93%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 10 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.