Energy Market Briefing

Oman said the meeting between Iran and Gulf states, due in Salalah on Monday to discuss a plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to regular tanker traffic, had been postponed "in the interests of consensus". Iran said Saudi Arabia had requested the delay, citing the war in Yemen, a reason Tehran's foreign ministry called a "false pretext".

Iranian state media reported a commercial vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile late on Saturday near Qeshm Island in the strait, killing one person and injuring four, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre confirmed a separate report of projectiles hitting two vessels off Oman. Commercial transits through Hormuz remain a fraction of pre-conflict levels.

Yemen's Saudi-backed government said its forces struck Houthi positions and vehicles near Mocha as they try to retake ground along the Red Sea coast the Iran-aligned group seized last week, completing its hold on the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Fighting has intensified on several fronts, displacing thousands toward Djibouti.

Brent crude traded around $108 a barrel on Monday, up roughly 3.3% on the day, as the collapsed Oman talks revived fears that Hormuz will stay closed for longer. That puts oil back near the highs briefly touched after the 11 September pipeline attack.

European TTF gas jumped to around €84 per MWh on Monday, up close to 6% on the day. The UK forward curve last closed on Friday with Win-26 power at 16.09p/kWh and Win-26 gas at 6.83p/kWh, both down on Thursday's spike as the market paused; today's renewed pressure in Europe points the other way into this week's close.

EU gas storage stood at 68% full on 12 September, 17.9 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm of 85.9%, as the Gulf LNG squeeze continues to slow the refill into winter.

The East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz-bypass route carrying up to five million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has stayed shut since the 10-11 September drone attacks in Riyadh and Medina provinces. Riyadh has said it will not retaliate for now but reserves the right to protect its facilities.

Qatar and the UAE continue ship-to-ship transfers off Oman to keep LNG moving around the Hormuz blockade, adding upwards of $1m and up to 35 hours per cargo. About 93% of Qatar's LNG exports normally transit the strait, and there is no alternative route for volumes of that scale.

With Bab al-Mandeb now largely under Houthi control and government forces regrouping to contest it, the security of the southern Red Sea shipping lane remains as uncertain as Hormuz itself, adding a second chokepoint risk alongside the Gulf standoff.