Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 15 September 2026 · Generated 09:45 BST · Past 24 hours

Iran has ruled out talks with Washington despite Trump signalling he is open to a deal, deepening the diplomatic freeze, while a French strike has added a fresh squeeze on European LNG capacity just as Saudi Arabia's main export pipeline stays shut. UK gas and power are holding onto Monday's sharp gains at the close, and oil and European gas have eased back slightly today.

UK Gas▲

NBP Win-26 firmed 3.7% at Monday's close

UK Power▲

Win-26 power tracked gas higher, up 3.3%

EU Storage▲

68.3% full, 17.7pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, elevated risk premiumSofter · Firmer

Gulf tensions and a stalled diplomatic track keep the curve firm, though prompt oil and gas eased slightly today.

UK gas Win-26

7.08p/kWh

+3.7% at Monday's close

UK power Win-26

16.62p/kWh

+3.3% at Monday's close

EU gas storage

68.3% full

17.7pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

81.98EUR/MWh

-0.7% on the day

Brent crude

107.46$/bbl

-0.8% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran's security chief has ruled out talks with Washington even as Trump signals openness to a deal, with the Gulf conflict still grinding on.
Iran hardens its line
Iran's security chief said the realities around global shipping and the Strait of Hormuz have changed, and ruled out talks with Washington until Tehran's demands under the Islamabad memorandum are met. The comments came even as President Trump wrote on social media that Iran 'wants to make a deal, quickly and badly', though he said the choice of whether to engage rests with him.
Pentagon reveals the cost of the war
A Defense Department report to Congress detailed the toll of the conflict since it began in February: four F-15 jets and up to 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones destroyed, an F-35 and seven KC-135 tankers damaged, and hundreds of buildings hit at US bases across the Gulf. The total cost has reached $33.4bn, with $22.3bn of that in expended munitions, and the report flagged strategic inventory shortfalls in US weapons stocks.
Yemen fighting continues
Houthi forces say Saudi Arabia has launched dozens of air attacks against them, while Yemen's internationally recognised government accuses the group of killing and displacing civilians during its advance. The fighting follows the Houthis' capture of the port of Mocha and their push toward the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a second shipping chokepoint alongside Hormuz.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power held onto Monday's sharp gains at the close while oil and European gas eased back slightly today.
Forward curve holds its gains
UK gas for Winter-26 closed Monday at 7.08p/kWh, up 3.7% on the day, with power at 16.62p/kWh, up 3.3%, as the market extended a fresh leg higher after Friday's pause. The moves track the wider Gulf risk premium rather than any change in UK-specific supply.
Oil and European gas ease back
Brent crude eased to around $107.5 a barrel on Tuesday, a touch below Monday's close near $108, while European TTF gas slipped under 1% to around EUR82/MWh. Both remain far above pre-war levels, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed to routine commercial shipping.
3 · SUPPLY
A French strike has cut import capacity at the Dunkirk LNG terminal, just as Saudi Arabia's pipeline stays shut and Qatar's LNG capacity remains crippled.
Dunkirk strike cuts LNG capacity
A one-day strike across French energy firms, including terminal operator Elengy and Belgian operator Fluxys, cut deliverable capacity at the Dunkirk LNG terminal to around 4 GWh a day against a normal minimum of 9.4 GWh, just as Europe races to refill storage before winter.
Saudi pipeline still down
The East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz bypass moving up to 5 million barrels a day to the Red Sea, remains shut following drone strikes on 10 September. Assessment of the damage continues, with no timeline yet for a restart.
Qatar's LNG scars will outlast the war
Qatari and UAE gas executives say LNG exports will not return to normal even once Hormuz reopens, with damaged facilities and higher insurance costs keeping supply constrained for months or years. Around 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity remains offline after strikes hit two of its 14 export trains.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 14 September 2026

14 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	16.62	+3.27%	7.08	+3.73%
Sum-27	10.98	+1.17%	4.67	+1.38%
Win-27	10.87	+0.80%	4.40	+0.76%
Sum-28	7.15	+1.55%	2.76	+0.19%
Win-28	8.13	+0.99%	2.99	+0.03%
Sum-29	6.90	+1.28%	2.30	+0.31%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 14 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind12.61 GW38.8%

Interconnectors5.41 GW16.7%

Solar3.59 GW11.1%

Nuclear3.31 GW10.2%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.01 GW9.3%

Biomass2.31 GW7.1%

Hydro + pumped0.43 GW1.3%

Other1.80 GW5.5%

As of 15 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

68.3%

5yr norm

86.0%

-17.7pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 13 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.19%JKM▲+0.70%Brent▲+1.02%WTI▲+1.34%UK carbon▲+0.24%EU carbon▲+2.87%FTSE 100▲+0.44%GBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.22%Gold▼-1.14%TTF▲+3.19%JKM▲+0.70%Brent▲+1.02%WTI▲+1.34%UK carbon▲+0.24%EU carbon▲+2.87%FTSE 100▲+0.44%GBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.22%Gold▼-1.14%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.19%JKM▲+0.70%

OiliBrent▲+1.02%WTI▲+1.34%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.24%EU carbon▲+2.87%

FTSE 100i▲+0.44%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.22%

Goldi▼-1.14%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 14 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.