Energy Market Briefing

Saudi Arabia is aiming to restore roughly half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, according to Bloomberg, with full capacity targeted in around six weeks. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the line would be running again "very soon", though satellite imagery cited by analysts suggests one pumping station sustained heavy damage, and analyst Andy Lipow has said a full repair could take months.

Yemen's Houthi forces, having taken Yemen's Red Sea coastline and Perim Island, say the Bab el-Mandeb strait remains open to shipping from every country except Saudi Arabia, formalising a blockade aimed squarely at Riyadh's Red Sea exports. Saudi Arabia has separately halted loadings at Yanbu after further Houthi drone attacks and says it destroyed a drone aimed at Mecca.

Brent crude fell to around $104.5 a barrel on Thursday, a second straight losing session, as the prospect of even partial Saudi pipeline flows took some of the risk premium out of the price. Crude remains well above its levels before the pipeline was hit.

UK Winter-26 gas closed Wednesday down almost 3% on the day and power eased around 0.75%, both extending Tuesday's pullback from Monday's surge. TTF firmed modestly to EUR78.65/MWh, a reminder that European gas has not eased as quickly as the oil market.

President Trump told reporters the US is "hopefully toward the end" of its war with Iran and said he has spoken with Tehran directly, adding "they want to make a deal, we'll see how that works out." He gave no new timeline beyond earlier comments that he expects the conflict to end after November's midterms.

Iran's national security chief Mohsen Rezaei said the US must take practical steps before Tehran will trust it, while a representative of the supreme leader said Washington "won't stop what's coming" and ruled out peace talks until Iran's conditions are met. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for de-escalation as fighting intensifies between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Israel's military chief Eyal Zamir said forces will keep operating deep inside Lebanon against Hezbollah despite the April ceasefire, an added complication that keeps a second front open alongside the Gulf standoff.