Energy Market Briefing

Friday 18 September 2026 · Generated 09:45 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power eased again at Thursday's close as hopes for a swift Saudi pipeline restart kept outweighing a harder overnight tone from Washington and Tehran, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard striking a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz a reminder the risk has not gone away.

UK Gas▼

NBP Win-26 fell about 1.6% at Thursday's close

UK Power▼

Power eased in step with gas, down about 3.3%

EU Storage▲

68.8% full, still 17.7pp below the 5yr norm

Market bias

Easing, mild downside riskSofter · Firmer

Saudi supply relief hopes are still outweighing the harder tone from Washington and Tehran, though the Hormuz tanker strike shows the risk has not gone away.

UK gas Win-26

6.57p/kWh

-1.6% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

15.46p/kWh

-3.3% day-on-day

EU gas storage

68.8% full

17.7pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

78.30EUR/MWh

+0.3% on the day

Brent crude

103.22$/bbl

-1.5% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Trump says he faces a big decision on Iran while Tehran's Revolutionary Guard struck a tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Big decision looms
President Trump said he faces a "big decision" on how to proceed with the Iran war, telling Axios he must decide whether to "go in and annihilate" the regime, days after a UN report found two US strikes in February may have amounted to war crimes. It marks a harder tone than his comments a day earlier that the war was close to ending.
Guard strikes a tanker
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said it struck a Togo flagged tanker attempting an "illegal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, the clearest sign yet that the fragile arrangement governing traffic through the strait remains under strain despite months of intermittent talks.
UN report deepens the rift
A UN fact finding mission said it found reasonable grounds to believe US strikes in February, including one on a school in Minab, constituted war crimes, adding a legal dimension to the dispute that will complicate any diplomatic reset.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power eased again into Thursday's close, with oil extending its slide on hopes of a swift Saudi pipeline restart.
Curve eases again
UK gas for Winter-26 fell around 1.6% and power around 3.3% at Thursday's close, extending Wednesday's declines as Saudi Arabia's plan to restore about half of its damaged East-West pipeline within days continued to ease supply fears. NBP Win-26 closed at 6.57p/kWh and power at 15.46p/kWh.
Oil extends its slide
Brent crude was last down around 1.5% at just over $103 a barrel as traders weighed the prospect of a faster than feared Saudi pipeline restart against intensifying Houthi attacks and Iran's harder rhetoric.
TTF holds its range
European TTF gas was little changed at a little over 77 EUR/MWh, holding within its recent range as the market balances tightening storage against the same competing supply and risk signals driving the UK curve.
3 · SUPPLY
Fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis intensified further, reportedly killing several people as the Red Sea blockade against Saudi shipping tightens.
Attacks intensify
Alex's morning market note reported intensifying attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis, which reportedly killed at least five people overnight, as the Iran backed group presses its advantage along the Red Sea coast.
Blockade against Saudi shipping tightens
The Houthis have taken effective control of Yemen's Red Sea coastline and the Bab al-Mandeb strait in recent days, with their spokesperson saying passage remains open to all shipping except Saudi flagged vessels, deepening the squeeze on the kingdom's main alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
Pipeline restart still on track
Saudi Arabia is still working to restore about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, with a full return to normal service expected to take around six weeks following the 11 September drone attack that forced its shutdown.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 17 September 2026

17 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	15.46	-3.28%	6.57	-1.61%
Sum-27	10.35	-1.68%	4.45	-1.63%
Win-27	10.45	-1.42%	4.29	-0.81%
Sum-28	6.99	-0.72%	2.75	+0.07%
Win-28	7.95	0.00%	3.00	+0.06%
Sum-29	6.70	-0.01%	2.35	+0.84%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 17 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind12.26 GW40.5%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.00 GW13.2%

Solar3.67 GW12.1%

Nuclear3.33 GW11.0%

Biomass2.18 GW7.2%

Interconnectors1.99 GW6.6%

Hydro + pumped0.60 GW2.0%

Other2.21 GW7.3%

As of 18 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

68.8%

5yr norm

86.5%

-17.7pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 16 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-0.79%JKM▼-1.74%Brent▼-0.95%WTI▼-0.51%UK carbon▲+0.22%EU carbon▲+1.51%FTSE 100▲+1.19%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▼-0.24%Gold▲+1.83%TTF▼-0.79%JKM▼-1.74%Brent▼-0.95%WTI▼-0.51%UK carbon▲+0.22%EU carbon▲+1.51%FTSE 100▲+1.19%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▼-0.24%Gold▲+1.83%

Global gasiTTF▼-0.79%JKM▼-1.74%

OiliBrent▼-0.95%WTI▼-0.51%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.22%EU carbon▲+1.51%

FTSE 100i▲+1.19%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▼-0.24%

Goldi▲+1.83%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 17 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.