Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 23 September 2026 · Generated 09:45 BST · Past 24 hours

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week as US-Iran talks resume at the UN, while UK gas and power held broadly steady into Tuesday's close after Monday's sharp falls. UK spot power spiked to its highest level in over a year as wind briefly collapsed, before recovering overnight.

UK Gas•

NBP Win-26 little changed after Monday's sharp fall

UK Power•

Day-ahead spiked to a 20-month high on a wind lull; forward barely moved

EU Storage▼

70.1% full, gap to norm widening on Norwegian outages

Market bias

Steady, mild upside risk on supplySofter · Firmer

Forward prices held Monday's falls, but Norwegian outages and Gulf uncertainty keep the risk skewed higher.

UK gas Win-26

6.28p/kWh

+0.25% into Tuesday's close

UK power Win-26

14.82p/kWh

+0.03% into Tuesday's close

EU gas storage

70.1% full

17.2pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

73.88EUR/MWh

+0.7% on the day

Brent crude

99.66$/bbl

+0.4% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if Washington eases pressure, as US and Iranian officials held fresh UN talks.
Iran's conditional offer
A senior Iranian official told Kyodo News that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases the blockade on Iranian ports and lifts military pressure, a proposal already passed to Washington through mediators.
Talks at the UN
President Trump said envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff held a three-hour meeting with Iranian officials on the fringes of the UN General Assembly, calling it a very good meeting even as he repeated a warning that the US could move to annihilate the Islamic Republic if no deal is reached.
Shipping still constrained
Transits through the Strait have remained far below normal levels in recent days, and a UK-flagged tanker was struck by a projectile while passing through at the weekend, a reminder of how fragile the lull in attacks still is even as diplomacy intensifies.
2 · MARKETS
UK power spiked to its highest level in over a year as wind collapsed and nuclear plants sat offline, though wind has since bounced back.
A sharp spot squeeze
UK day-ahead power jumped to its highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday, with wind generation forecast to average only around 3GW against nearly 20GW at the weekend, while several nuclear reactors remained offline for maintenance.
Forward curve steadies
The seasonal forward curve barely moved into Tuesday's close, with UK gas and power both little changed after Monday's sharp falls, suggesting traders are treating the wind-driven spot spike as a short-lived squeeze rather than a shift in the outlook.
Wind recovers
Wind output was back above 10GW and supplying around a third of British demand by Wednesday morning, easing the immediate pressure that had pushed spot prices higher earlier in the week.
3 · SUPPLY
Norwegian gas field outages have widened Europe's storage shortfall against the seasonal norm, keeping the continent's refill effort well behind pace into autumn.
Norwegian flows down
Norwegian gas exports to Europe have fallen by more than a tenth this month against August levels, with UK-nominated flows particularly hard hit, as a wave of field maintenance including an extended outage at Ormen Lange curbs supply.
Storage gap widens
EU gas storage stood at 70.1% full as of Monday, some 17 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm for this point in the year, with the shortfall widening rather than narrowing as the Norwegian outages bite into the usual autumn refill.
Target still a stretch
The winter 2026/27 goal is for storage to reach 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce that to a minimum of 80%; even the lower bound now looks like it will need a strong final push.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 22 September 2026

22 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	14.82	+0.03%	6.28	+0.25%
Sum-27	10.35	+1.33%	4.47	+0.18%
Win-27	10.54	+0.34%	4.36	+0.83%
Sum-28	7.07	+1.06%	2.80	+0.35%
Win-28	7.97	-0.01%	3.03	-0.18%
Sum-29	6.67	+0.35%	2.33	-1.03%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 22 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind10.35 GW32.2%

Interconnectors5.48 GW17.1%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.89 GW15.2%

Nuclear3.80 GW11.8%

Solar3.18 GW9.9%

Biomass2.33 GW7.3%

Hydro + pumped storage0.63 GW2.0%

Other1.45 GW4.5%

As of 23 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

70.1%

5yr norm

87.3%

-17.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 21 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-0.05%JKM▲+0.23%Brent▼-1.09%WTI▼-1.24%UK carbon▲+0.19%EU carbon▲+0.13%FTSE 100▼-0.29%GBPUSD▼-0.18%GBPEUR▼-0.03%Gold▲+0.27%TTF▼-0.05%JKM▲+0.23%Brent▼-1.09%WTI▼-1.24%UK carbon▲+0.19%EU carbon▲+0.13%FTSE 100▼-0.29%GBPUSD▼-0.18%GBPEUR▼-0.03%Gold▲+0.27%

Global gasiTTF▼-0.05%JKM▲+0.23%

OiliBrent▼-1.09%WTI▼-1.24%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.19%EU carbon▲+0.13%

FTSE 100i▼-0.29%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.18%GBPEUR▼-0.03%

Goldi▲+0.27%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 22 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.