Energy Market Briefing

Monday 28 September 2026 · Generated 09:45 BST · Since Friday morning

Oil and European gas jumped in early trading after Donald Trump rejected Iran's weekend proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reviving the Gulf risk premium that had eased into Friday's close, when UK gas and power both pulled back.

UK Gas▼

NBP Win-26 eased 3.9% into Friday's close as Hormuz deal hopes briefly took hold

UK Power▼

Power front season eased 3.0% alongside gas, though nuclear outages still underpin near-term tightness

EU Storage▲

70.9% full, still 17.3pp below the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firmer, upside risk from Gulf tensionsSofter · Firmer

Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal has revived the geopolitical risk premium, even though UK gas and power eased back at Friday's close.

UK gas Win-26

6.22p/kWh

-3.9% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

14.78p/kWh

-3.0% day-on-day

EU gas storage

70.9% full

17.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

74.02EUR/MWh

+3.0% on the day

Brent crude

107.54$/bbl

+3.1% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Donald Trump rejected Iran's weekend proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reviving the Gulf risk premium that had eased into Friday's close.
Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan
On Saturday Trump told reporters "I reject their proposal", arguing Iran wants a deal because it is "losing so badly", and that the terms on offer would not be acceptable. He said he expects further talks with Iran this week.
Tehran holds its line
Iran's foreign minister said Tehran remains open to "real diplomacy" but is ready to confront any new US attacks, "even if it means an apocalyptic war". Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen Hormuz in exchange for eased sanctions and military pressure remains unanswered.
Disputed drone claim in the strait
Iran said its forces seized a second American underwater drone intact in the Strait of Hormuz on 27 September; the US military rejected the claim. Around 233 vessels remained held away from berth in the strait and wider Gulf watch box as of Monday morning, against a pre-crisis average of 85 transits a day.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power both eased back at Friday's close on hopes of a Hormuz deal, but nuclear outages are still squeezing near-term supply.
Friday's close pulled back
UK gas eased 3.9% and UK power 3.0% on the front winter season at market close on 25 September, tracking a broader retreat in European gas as reports of a possible phased US-Iran deal briefly eased the Gulf risk premium.
Weekend news has already reversed the mood
Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal on Saturday fed through to live pricing at the start of the new week, with Brent crude and prompt TTF both up around 3% in Monday trading, moves not yet reflected in the front-season closes shown here.
Nuclear still a drag on UK power
Heysham 1's two turbine generators remain offline, with one due back on 30 September and the second on 3 October, keeping UK nuclear availability tight into the new month.
3 · SUPPLY
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is slowly rebuilding flows after this month's drone strikes, restoring only a fraction of its bypass capacity around Hormuz.
East-West pipeline still rebuilding
Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline on 22 September after drone strikes forced an eight-day shutdown, but a full return to normal flows is not expected for six to eight weeks, leaving the kingdom's Hormuz-bypass capacity to Yanbu still constrained.
Qatari LNG still under force majeure
QatarEnergy's force majeure on LNG deliveries to Europe and Asia, extended into early November, continues to curb Gulf LNG reaching Europe, a standing drag on supply layering on top of this weekend's renewed geopolitical risk.
Norwegian exports still running short
Norwegian pipeline exports to Europe are running at roughly 281 million cubic metres a day against a capability of 330-340 million, with around 530 GWh/day of field capacity still unavailable for the rest of September.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 25 September 2026

25 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	14.78	-2.96%	6.22	-3.86%
Sum-27	10.45	-1.95%	4.48	-2.55%
Win-27	10.64	-1.14%	4.35	-1.89%
Sum-28	7.20	-0.30%	2.87	-0.48%
Win-28	8.08	-0.86%	3.12	-0.57%
Sum-29	6.65	-0.97%	2.41	-0.41%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 25 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)8.62 GW33.8%

Nuclear4.01 GW15.7%

Solar3.51 GW13.8%

Wind3.46 GW13.6%

Biomass2.95 GW11.6%

Interconnectors1.32 GW5.2%

Hydro + pumped0.57 GW2.2%

Other1.03 GW4.0%

As of 28 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

70.9%

5yr norm

88.2%

-17.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 26 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-4.94%JKM▼-2.14%Brent▼-2.14%WTI▼-2.33%UK carbon▼-0.59%EU carbon▼-0.21%FTSE 100▲+0.14%GBPUSD▲+0.27%GBPEUR▲+0.08%Gold▲+0.19%TTF▼-4.94%JKM▼-2.14%Brent▼-2.14%WTI▼-2.33%UK carbon▼-0.59%EU carbon▼-0.21%FTSE 100▲+0.14%GBPUSD▲+0.27%GBPEUR▲+0.08%Gold▲+0.19%

Global gasiTTF▼-4.94%JKM▼-2.14%

OiliBrent▼-2.14%WTI▼-2.33%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.59%EU carbon▼-0.21%

FTSE 100i▲+0.14%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.27%GBPEUR▲+0.08%

Goldi▲+0.19%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 25 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.