Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 29 September 2026 · Generated 09:45 BST · Past 24 hours

Iran's foreign minister has met Qatari mediators over a Hormuz reopening plan and expects Washington's answer today, but a US official says there is no deal without action on Iran's nuclear programme. Near-dated UK gas and power firmed into the 28 September close while later winters eased.

UK Gas▲

UK gas Win-26 up 1.4% at the 28 September close

UK Power▲

UK power Win-26 up 1.3%, back seasons slightly lower

EU Storage▲

71.2% full, 17.2pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, headline drivenSofter · Firmer

Hormuz talks are unresolved and Qatar LNG stays offline into winter, though a US reply due today could swing prices either way.

UK gas Win-26

6.30p/kWh

+1.4% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

14.97p/kWh

+1.3% day-on-day

EU gas storage

71.2% full

17.2pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

74.02EUR/MWh

+3.0% at 28 Sep close

Brent crude

106.89$/bbl

+2.5% at 28 Sep close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran and Qatari mediators discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a US reply expected today but no deal while nuclear issues stay open.
Talks in New York
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York on Monday to discuss Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said he hopes for Washington's final response by Tuesday and was flying back to Tehran within hours.
US position
A US official said there would be no agreement to end the war unless Iran's nuclear programme is addressed. President Trump denied reports that Washington had offered sanctions relief, writing that he had offered Iran nothing.
Flows through the strait
Kpler tracking showed clearance through Hormuz at about 10.6 million barrels a day on Saturday against a pre-war baseline of about 17.1 million. Brent closed at about $106.89 a barrel on 28 September, up 2.5% on the day.
2 · SUPPLY
Qatar has again extended its LNG force majeure, keeping cargoes to Europe and Asia offline into November and early December.
Force majeure extended
QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG shipments, with cargoes to South Asian buyers suspended through November and Italy's Edison affected until early December, according to reporting on 28 September.
Capacity
Ras Laffan is running at reduced capacity after damage in March but is reported ready to lift output quickly if Hormuz reopens. Reporting says disruption could last months even with the strait open.
Price reaction
TTF closed at about 74.02 EUR/MWh on 28 September, up 3.0% on the day. Meanwhile EU storage is 71.2% full as of 27 September, 17.2pp below the 5yr norm of 88.4%, against a 90% target for 1 December with flexibility down to 80%.
3 · POWER
Wind supplied over a third of Britain's power this morning, while near-dated UK gas and power firmed and later winters eased.
Generation this morning
At 09:40 BST demand was 31.4 GW. Wind supplied 11.7 GW (37.2%), gas 6.1 GW (19.3%), nuclear 4.0 GW (12.8%) and interconnector imports 4.2 GW (13.2%), with solar at 2.0 GW.
UK gas and power at the 28 September close
UK gas Win-26 rose 1.4% to 6.30 p/kWh and UK power Win-26 rose 1.3% to 14.97 p/kWh. UK gas Sum-27 gained 1.0% to 4.52 p/kWh and UK power Sum-27 gained 0.6% to 10.51 p/kWh.
Further out
Later seasons eased. UK gas Sum-28 fell 0.4% to 2.86 p/kWh and UK gas Sum-29 fell 0.8% to 2.39 p/kWh, while UK power Sum-28 slipped 0.7% to 7.15 p/kWh.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 28 September 2026

28 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	14.97	+1.31%	6.30	+1.39%
Sum-27	10.51	+0.63%	4.52	+0.98%
Win-27	10.62	-0.10%	4.37	+0.41%
Sum-28	7.15	-0.71%	2.86	-0.40%
Win-28	8.05	-0.27%	3.11	-0.36%
Sum-29	6.66	+0.06%	2.39	-0.81%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 28 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind11.69 GW37.2%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.07 GW19.3%

Interconnectors4.16 GW13.2%

Nuclear4.01 GW12.8%

Biomass2.33 GW7.4%

Solar2.04 GW6.5%

Hydro + pumped0.58 GW1.8%

Other0.52 GW1.7%

As of 29 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

71.2%

5yr norm

88.4%

-17.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 27 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+1.59%JKM▲+1.03%Brent▲+0.92%WTI▲+0.21%UK carbon▼-0.78%EU carbon▼-0.76%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▲+0.01%GBPEUR▲+0.23%Gold▼-4.01%TTF▲+1.59%JKM▲+1.03%Brent▲+0.92%WTI▲+0.21%UK carbon▼-0.78%EU carbon▼-0.76%FTSE 100▼-0.10%GBPUSD▲+0.01%GBPEUR▲+0.23%Gold▼-4.01%

Global gasiTTF▲+1.59%JKM▲+1.03%

OiliBrent▲+0.92%WTI▲+0.21%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.78%EU carbon▼-0.76%

FTSE 100i▼-0.10%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.01%GBPEUR▲+0.23%

Goldi▼-4.01%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 28 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.