Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 30 September 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Middle East oil exports are recovering towards pre-war levels, and UK gas and power fell sharply at the 29 September close. Norwegian maintenance is easing from 1 October, but Qatar's LNG suspension and stalled US and Iran diplomacy keep gas prices high.

UK Gas▼

NBP Win-26 down 4.8% at the 29 September close

UK Power▼

Win-26 down 3.6%, following gas lower

EU Storage▲

71.3% full, 17.3pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Softer, geopolitical risk remainsSofter · Firmer

Recovering Gulf oil exports and easing Norwegian outages pull prices lower, while Qatar's LNG suspension and low EU storage keep a floor under gas.

UK gas Win-26

6.00p/kWh

-4.8% day-on-day

UK power Win-26

14.43p/kWh

-3.6% day-on-day

EU gas storage

71.3% full

17.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

72.23EUR/MWh

-1.4% on 29 Sep

Brent crude

102.59$/bbl

-2.6% on 29 Sep

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Middle East oil exports are recovering towards pre-war levels, and UK gas and power fell sharply at the last close.
Oil flows recover
Kpler data cited in this morning's desk news shows oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaging about 13.2 million barrels a day over the past week, closer to pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks. Brent settled at $102.59 a barrel on 29 September, down 2.6%.
Saudi pipeline helps
Saudi Arabia has restored about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and that is the main reason crude fell at the 29 September close.
Diplomacy still stalled
President Trump said the war on Iran will end very soon but gave no details, and denied offering Iran sanctions relief. That leaves a risk premium in place, so the recovery in flows is not yet a settled reopening.
Where the gas move fits
At the 29 September close UK gas Win-26 fell 4.8% to 6.00 p/kWh and UK power Win-26 fell 3.6% to 14.43 p/kWh. TTF settled at 72.23 EUR/MWh, down 1.4%.
2 · SUPPLY
Norwegian gas maintenance is set to ease from 1 October, while Qatar has extended its LNG supply suspension into December.
Norwegian outages easing
Norwegian flows recovered to 261 mcm a day and Gassco maintenance outages are expected to fall from 112 mcm a day to 31 mcm a day by 1 October, according to the 29 September Prestige market report. Langeled deliveries to the UK rose to 40 mcm a day.
Qatar LNG suspension extended
QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries for a fourth time this year, with Italian and Asian buyers facing suspensions running into November and December.
Storage still behind
EU gas storage was 71.3% full on 28 September, 17.3 percentage points below the 5yr norm of 88.6% for today. The winter 2026/27 filling target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.
3 · POWER
Wind supplied over two fifths of Britain's power this morning, with gas the second largest source.
Wind leads the mix
At 09:40 BST wind supplied 13.64 GW, 43.6% of the 31.26 GW of demand. Gas plants supplied 4.75 GW (15.2%), nuclear 4.00 GW (12.8%) and net interconnector imports about 3.4 GW (11.0%).
Gas still sets the marginal price
With gas the second largest single source, UK power tends to follow gas, which is why power eased alongside gas at the last close.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 29 September 2026

29 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Win-26	14.43	-3.61%	6.00	-4.77%
Sum-27	10.27	-2.31%	4.37	-3.40%
Win-27	10.49	-1.28%	4.23	-3.11%
Sum-28	7.07	-1.12%	2.79	-2.48%
Win-28	8.02	-0.46%	3.04	-2.41%
Sum-29	6.66	0.00%	2.36	-1.10%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 29 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind13.64 GW43.6%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.75 GW15.2%

Nuclear4.00 GW12.8%

Interconnectors3.44 GW11.0%

Solar1.99 GW6.4%

Biomass1.11 GW3.6%

Hydro + pumped0.54 GW1.7%

Other1.79 GW5.7%

As of 30 September 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

71.3%

5yr norm

88.6%

-17.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 28 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-6.55%JKM▼-2.47%Brent▼-2.56%WTI▼-3.48%UK carbon▲+5.24%EU carbon▼-0.02%FTSE 100▼-0.45%GBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.11%Gold▲+1.62%TTF▼-6.55%JKM▼-2.47%Brent▼-2.56%WTI▼-3.48%UK carbon▲+5.24%EU carbon▼-0.02%FTSE 100▼-0.45%GBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.11%Gold▲+1.62%

Global gasiTTF▼-6.55%JKM▼-2.47%

OiliBrent▼-2.56%WTI▼-3.48%

CarboniUK carbon▲+5.24%EU carbon▼-0.02%

FTSE 100i▼-0.45%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.11%

Goldi▲+1.62%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 29 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.