Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 1 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power firmed at the 30 September close after Germany ordered state-owned SEFE to inject extra gas into storage, and Iran received a US counterproposal on a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that ships were hit in the strait afterwards keep the risk skewed higher.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 1.9% at the 30 September close

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 1.7%, following gas higher

EU Storage▲

71.5% full, 17.3pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

German storage buying and unresolved Hormuz talks outweigh easing oil.

UK gas Sum-27

4.45p/kWh

+1.9% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

10.45p/kWh

+1.7% day-on-day

EU gas storage

71.5% full

17.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

72.50EUR/MWh

up from 68.91 on 29 September

Brent crude

98$/bbl

settled around this level Wednesday

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran has received a US counterproposal on a ceasefire and reopening Hormuz, but ships were reportedly hit in the strait soon afterwards.
Counterproposal received
Iran confirmed on 30 September that it had received Washington's response, passed through Qatari mediators, to its seven day proposal on Hormuz. Tehran is demanding sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, an end to the US naval blockade and a seven day ceasefire.
Ships reported hit
Shortly after the response arrived, three commercial vessels including an oil tanker and an LNG tanker were reportedly struck by unknown projectiles in the strait. This is early reporting and not yet independently confirmed in detail.
Trump signals a decision
The US President said a choice between a deal and further strikes would come very soon. This is from Alex's market news email of 1 October.
Oil
Brent settled around $98 a barrel on Wednesday, with WTI near $90, as markets weigh whether the recovery in Middle East flows can last.
2 · SUPPLY
Germany has ordered state-owned SEFE to buy and store extra gas by mid December, and European gas prices jumped on the news.
German storage order
Germany has instructed SEFE to procure and inject 8 TWh of new gas into storage by 15 December, the company confirmed to ICIS on 30 September. The volumes can go into sites outside Germany if connected to the German grid, such as Haidach in Austria. It follows 24 TWh of long term option tenders from the German market area manager last week.
Price reaction
The TTF November contract traded near 72.50 EUR/MWh around 11:30 London time on 30 September, against an ICIS assessment of 68.91 EUR/MWh the day before. UK gas and power followed higher at the close, with UK gas Sum-27 up 1.9% to 4.45 p/kWh and UK power Sum-27 up 1.7% to 10.45 p/kWh.
Qatar LNG
Qatar has extended force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by another month as Hormuz disruption continues, according to reporting of 28 September.
EU storage
EU storage was 71.5% full on 29 September, 17.3pp below the 5 year norm of 88.8%. The target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.
3 · POWER
Gas supplied over a third of Britain's power this morning while wind was light, keeping UK power prices tied to gas.
Generation this morning
At 09:40 BST on 1 October demand was 34.84 GW. Gas supplied 12.53 GW (36%), wind 6.14 GW (18%), solar 4.74 GW (14%), nuclear 4.00 GW (11%) and biomass 2.36 GW (7%). The source site noted it was showing archived data because of upstream reporting issues, so treat the mix as indicative.
Why it matters
With wind light and gas the largest source, UK power prices track UK gas closely, which is why power rose alongside gas at the last close.
Winter 2026 contracts
Win-26 is now delivering, so the forward table starts at Sum-27. Later seasons firmed at the 30 September close except Win-28 and Win-29 power, which eased slightly.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 30 September 2026

30 Sep 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	10.45	+1.70%	4.45	+1.92%
Win-27	10.57	+0.80%	4.28	+1.16%
Sum-28	7.13	+0.83%	2.81	+0.67%
Win-28	8.00	-0.16%	3.05	+0.58%
Sum-29	6.75	+1.31%	2.38	+0.53%
Win-29	7.46	-0.12%	2.69	+0.47%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 30 September 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)12.53 GW36.0%

Wind6.14 GW17.6%

Solar4.74 GW13.6%

Nuclear4.00 GW11.5%

Biomass2.36 GW6.8%

Hydro + pumped0.59 GW1.7%

Other4.48 GW12.9%

As of 1 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

71.5%

5yr norm

88.8%

-17.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 29 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+5.53%JKM▲+1.20%Brent▲+0.92%WTI▲+1.16%UK carbon▼-0.73%EU carbon▼-1.02%FTSE 100▼-0.29%GBPUSD▲+0.27%GBPEUR▲+0.35%Gold▼-0.59%TTF▲+5.53%JKM▲+1.20%Brent▲+0.92%WTI▲+1.16%UK carbon▼-0.73%EU carbon▼-1.02%FTSE 100▼-0.29%GBPUSD▲+0.27%GBPEUR▲+0.35%Gold▼-0.59%

Global gasiTTF▲+5.53%JKM▲+1.20%

OiliBrent▲+0.92%WTI▲+1.16%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.73%EU carbon▼-1.02%

FTSE 100i▼-0.29%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.27%GBPEUR▲+0.35%

Goldi▼-0.59%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 30 September 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.