Energy Market Briefing

Friday 2 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power firmed across the curve at the 1 October close, with US reinforcements heading for the Gulf and another tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Germany's order for SEFE to add gas to storage keeps European buyers nervous.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 3.1% at the 1 October close

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 2.5% as gas leads

EU Storage▲

71.5% full, 17.4pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Gulf escalation and German storage buying are both pushing prices up, with no sign of relief.

UK gas Sum-27

4.59p/kWh

+3.1% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

10.71p/kWh

+2.5% day-on-day

EU gas storage

71.5% full

17.4pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

73.24EUR/MWh

-0.9% in early trade

Brent crude

96.76$/bbl

-0.3% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
The US is sending a third carrier group towards Iran and another supertanker has been hit in Hormuz, keeping gas supply risk high.
Third US carrier group heads for the region
A US official told Al Jazeera that the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group and the Makin Island amphibious group, carrying 2,000 Marines, have left San Diego, with the full buildup due by November. That could mean three carriers in the region by the end of October (market news email, 2 October).
Another supertanker hit in Hormuz
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a supertanker carrying about 2.5 million barrels was hit by an unknown projectile and caught fire while passing through the Strait of Hormuz (market news email, 2 October). Further vessel strikes were reported by maritime sources through 1 October.
Diplomacy still unresolved
Iran said on 30 September that it had received a US counterproposal on reopening the strait, and President Trump said the US must either make a deal or escalate very soon (market news email, 1 October). No deal has been confirmed in the sources checked today.
Oil is little changed
Brent was around $96.76 a barrel on 2 October, down 0.3% on the day, so the risk premium is showing up in gas more than crude.
2 · PRICES
UK gas and power firmed across the forward curve at the last close as European buyers worried about winter gas stocks.
Curve firmer at the 1 October close
UK gas rose between 1.7% and 3.1% across Sum-27 to Win-29 and UK power rose between 1.5% and 2.5%, with the nearer seasons moving most. Sum-27 UK gas closed at 4.59 p/kWh and UK power at 10.71 p/kWh.
German storage order keeps buyers active
Germany has told state-owned SEFE to inject 8 TWh of new gas into storage by 15 December, following 24 TWh of long term option tenders from the German market area manager last week (ICIS via market news email, 1 October). TTF November traded near EUR 72.50/MWh on 30 September.
TTF slightly softer this morning
TTF prompt was around EUR 73.24/MWh on 2 October, down 0.9% in early trade, after a firm run into the close.
Storage background
EU storage was 71.5% full on 29 September, 17.4 percentage points below the 5-year norm of 88.9%. Germany was reported at 57.6% full on the same date. The EU target is 90% by 1 December, with flexibility down to 80%.
3 · POWER
Gas and wind each supplied just over a quarter of Britain's power this morning, with Britain exporting overall.
Generation mix at 09:40 BST
Gas supplied 9.11 GW (28.5%) and wind 8.91 GW (27.8%) against demand of 32.01 GW. Nuclear gave 4.02 GW, solar 3.69 GW and biomass 2.57 GW.
Interconnectors net exporting
Norway and the Netherlands sent power in, but exports to France, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland outweighed them, leaving Britain a small net exporter.
Gas still sets the price
With gas providing the largest single share, the firmer UK gas curve fed straight through to UK power, which rose by a similar proportion at the last close.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 1 October 2026

1 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	10.71	+2.51%	4.59	+3.06%
Win-27	10.80	+2.17%	4.40	+2.69%
Sum-28	7.28	+2.16%	2.88	+2.61%
Win-28	8.12	+1.46%	3.13	+2.49%
Sum-29	6.85	+1.48%	2.43	+2.30%
Win-29	7.64	+2.44%	2.73	+1.71%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 1 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)9.11 GW28.5%

Wind8.91 GW27.8%

Nuclear4.02 GW12.6%

Solar3.69 GW11.5%

Biomass2.57 GW8.0%

Hydro + pumped0.58 GW1.8%

Other3.13 GW9.8%

As of 2 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

71.5%

5yr norm

88.9%

-17.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 29 September 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+2.16%JKM▲+0.17%Brent▼-1.18%WTI▲+2.71%UK carbon▲+1.28%EU carbon▲+0.65%FTSE 100▼-1.68%GBPUSD▼-0.50%GBPEUR▲+0.28%Gold▲+0.52%TTF▲+2.16%JKM▲+0.17%Brent▼-1.18%WTI▲+2.71%UK carbon▲+1.28%EU carbon▲+0.65%FTSE 100▼-1.68%GBPUSD▼-0.50%GBPEUR▲+0.28%Gold▲+0.52%

Global gasiTTF▲+2.16%JKM▲+0.17%

OiliBrent▼-1.18%WTI▲+2.71%

CarboniUK carbon▲+1.28%EU carbon▲+0.65%

FTSE 100i▼-1.68%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.50%GBPEUR▲+0.28%

Goldi▲+0.52%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 1 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.