Energy Market Briefing

Monday 5 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Since Friday morning

UK gas and power firmed again at Friday's close, and the weekend brought no relief: another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran says the strait stays shut until its conditions are met. With EU storage well short of where it normally sits in early October, buyers have little cushion.

UK Gas▲

UK gas Sum-27 up about 1.9% at the 2 October close

UK Power▲

UK power Sum-27 up about 0.9%, following gas higher

EU Storage▲

72.4% full, 17pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Hormuz remains closed, talks have stalled and EU storage is well below its usual level for the time of year.

UK gas Sum-27

4.67p/kWh

+1.8% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

10.80p/kWh

+0.8% day-on-day

EU gas storage

72.4% full

17.0pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

76.10EUR/MWh

+3.0% at the 2 Oct close

Brent crude

102.25$/bbl

little changed at the 2 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and Iran says the strait stays closed until its conditions are met.
Tanker struck in Hormuz
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker struck in the Strait of Hormuz and another vessel off Yemen reporting multiple explosions nearby (market news email, 5 October). A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile on 4 October with engine room damage and the crew safe, according to live reporting that day.
Strait stays shut
Iran's parliament speaker said the strait will stay closed until the conditions Iran set out in the June interim agreement are met, and traffic has effectively come to a standstill after weekend attacks near the waterway (market news email, 5 October).
Talks stalled
Iran's foreign minister said there is no military solution to the conflict with the US, but Iran has rejected the latest US counterproposals and there is no ceasefire in place (live reporting, 4 October).
Yemen widens the risk
Yemen's presidential leadership council announced major operations to retake Houthi-held territory, and the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco sites on 4 October. These are claims and not independently confirmed, but they add to the supply risk around the Gulf. Brent was $102.25 at the 2 October close and was reported near $103 on Sunday.
2 · PRICES
UK gas and power rose again at Friday's close, with contracts for 2027 and 2028 seeing the biggest gains.
Forward curve firmer
At the 2 October close UK gas rose across the curve, up about 1.9% for Sum-27 to 4.67 p/kWh and 2.1% for Win-27 to 4.49 p/kWh. UK power followed, with Sum-27 up about 0.8% to 10.80 p/kWh and Win-27 up 1.5% to 10.96 p/kWh.
Further out
The biggest gains were in Sum-28 where UK gas rose 2.3% to 2.95 p/kWh and UK power 2.2% to 7.44 p/kWh. Moves in 2029 contracts were smaller, under 1.1% for gas and under 0.4% for power.
Europe leads
TTF prompt closed at 76.10 EUR/MWh on 2 October, up from 73.85 the day before, which is a third rise in as many sessions. Win-26 is now delivering and has dropped out of the forward table.
3 · POWER
Wind supplied over a third of Britain's power this morning, leaving gas generation at under a sixth.
Wind dominates
At 09:40 BST on 5 October wind supplied 11.55 GW or 37.1% of demand of 31.11 GW, against 4.74 GW or 15.2% from gas (GridWatch).
Rest of the mix
Nuclear provided 12.9%, biomass 9.5% and solar 7.6%, with net interconnector imports of about 3.0 GW, or 9.6% of demand, led by Norway and the Viking link.
Why it matters
A windy start to the week limits how much gas burn feeds through to power prices on the day, but the forward curve is still priced off gas.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 2 October 2026

2 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	10.80	+0.85%	4.67	+1.85%
Win-27	10.96	+1.49%	4.49	+2.10%
Sum-28	7.44	+2.22%	2.95	+2.30%
Win-28	8.27	+1.82%	3.19	+1.84%
Sum-29	6.87	+0.39%	2.46	+1.09%
Win-29	7.67	+0.37%	2.76	+0.92%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 2 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind11.55 GW37.1%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.74 GW15.2%

Nuclear4.01 GW12.9%

Interconnectors2.99 GW9.6%

Biomass2.95 GW9.5%

Solar2.36 GW7.6%

Hydro + pumped0.46 GW1.5%

Other2.05 GW6.6%

As of 5 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

72.4%

5yr norm

89.4%

-17.0pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 3 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.05%JKM▼-0.31%Brent▼-0.06%WTI▼-1.90%UK carbon▼-1.96%EU carbon▼-1.41%FTSE 100▲+0.32%GBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▲+0.22%Gold▼-0.85%TTF▲+3.05%JKM▼-0.31%Brent▼-0.06%WTI▼-1.90%UK carbon▼-1.96%EU carbon▼-1.41%FTSE 100▲+0.32%GBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▲+0.22%Gold▼-0.85%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.05%JKM▼-0.31%

OiliBrent▼-0.06%WTI▼-1.90%

CarboniUK carbon▼-1.96%EU carbon▼-1.41%

FTSE 100i▲+0.32%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.32%GBPEUR▲+0.22%

Goldi▼-0.85%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 2 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.