Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 6 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Another tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's president calls talks with Washington meaningless, while Yemen's government is pushing back near Bab al-Mandeb. Oil and TTF eased at Monday's close but UK gas and power firmed further out the curve, and gas is again doing most of the work on Britain's grid this morning.

UK Gas▲

NBP firmer at Monday's close, Sum-27 up 0.2%, later years up more

UK Power•

Near seasons slightly softer, 2028 and 2029 firmer

EU Storage▲

72.7% full, 16.8pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Hormuz attacks and stalled talks keep supply risk live, even as oil and TTF eased at Monday's close.

UK gas Sum-27

4.68p/kWh

+0.2% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

10.75p/kWh

-0.5% day-on-day

EU gas storage

72.7% full

16.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

73.05EUR/MWh

-4.0% at Monday's close

Brent crude

100.32$/bbl

-1.9% at Monday's close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's president says talks with Washington are meaningless, while Yemen's government pushes back near Bab al-Mandeb.
Another tanker hit in Hormuz
Crews fought an engine room fire after a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. Shipping through the strait remains exposed to attack.
Talks with Washington stall
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says negotiations with Washington are meaningless because of US attacks during the talks. President Trump, speaking at a rally on Monday evening, said the war was almost over, so the two sides remain far apart.
Yemen counteroffensive near Bab al-Mandeb
Yemen's internationally recognised government says it has retaken the port city of Mocha and launched a major counteroffensive against the Houthis near the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Turkiye and Pakistan have also agreed a rapid military deployment to bolster Saudi Arabia after Houthi threats to Mecca and Medina.
What it means for energy
Brent closed Monday at 100.32 $/bbl, down 1.9% on Friday, so the market is still pricing a high level of supply risk even on a softer day.
2 · PRICES
Oil and European gas eased at Monday's close, but UK gas and power still firmed further out the curve, led by 2028 and 2029.
UK gas firmer further out
At Monday's close UK gas for Sum-27 was 4.68 p/kWh, up 0.2%, while Win-27 rose 0.4% to 4.51 p/kWh. The biggest gains came later on, with Sum-29 up 1.7% to 2.50 p/kWh and Win-29 up 2.2% to 2.82 p/kWh.
UK power mixed
UK power for Sum-27 slipped 0.5% to 10.75 p/kWh, while Win-27 gained 0.9% to 11.06 p/kWh. Sum-29 rose 1.5% to 6.97 p/kWh and Win-29 rose 1.1% to 7.75 p/kWh.
TTF and oil eased
TTF prompt closed Monday at 73.05 EUR/MWh, down 4.0% on Friday. UK carbon closed at 59.85 £/tonne, also lower.
EU storage as background
EU gas storage was 72.7% full on 4 October, 16.8pp below the 5yr norm of 89.5% for this point in the year. The filling target is 90% by 1 December, with flexibility down to 80%.
3 · POWER
Gas supplied over 40% of Britain's power this morning as wind output fell to about 6%, a sharp swing from Monday.
Gas back in charge
At 09:40 BST gas plants were supplying 14.62 GW, about 43% of demand of 33.70 GW. Wind was only 2.12 GW, about 6%, after wind dominated Britain's power supply on Monday morning.
Imports fill the gap
Net interconnector imports were about 6.0 GW, roughly 18% of demand, led by France at 2.76 GW. Nuclear supplied 4.01 GW and biomass 3.20 GW.
Why it matters
A low wind morning leaves UK power prices more exposed to the gas price, which is why the gas market's response to Hormuz news carries straight through to power.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 5 October 2026

5 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	10.75	-0.46%	4.68	+0.16%
Win-27	11.06	+0.88%	4.51	+0.44%
Sum-28	7.48	+0.42%	2.98	+1.01%
Win-28	8.25	-0.21%	3.21	+0.79%
Sum-29	6.97	+1.47%	2.50	+1.73%
Win-29	7.75	+1.07%	2.82	+2.15%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 5 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)14.62 GW43.4%

Interconnectors6.00 GW17.8%

Nuclear4.01 GW11.9%

Biomass3.20 GW9.5%

Wind2.12 GW6.3%

Solar1.73 GW5.1%

Hydro + pumped0.63 GW1.9%

Other1.39 GW4.1%

As of 6 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

72.7%

5yr norm

89.5%

-16.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 4 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-4.01%JKM▲+0.04%Brent▼-1.89%WTI▼-1.84%UK carbon▼-1.24%EU carbon▼-0.68%FTSE 100▲+0.34%GBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.12%Gold▼-0.07%TTF▼-4.01%JKM▲+0.04%Brent▼-1.89%WTI▼-1.84%UK carbon▼-1.24%EU carbon▼-0.68%FTSE 100▲+0.34%GBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.12%Gold▼-0.07%

Global gasiTTF▼-4.01%JKM▲+0.04%

OiliBrent▼-1.89%WTI▼-1.84%

CarboniUK carbon▼-1.24%EU carbon▼-0.68%

FTSE 100i▲+0.34%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.17%GBPEUR▲+0.12%

Goldi▼-0.07%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 5 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.