Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 7 October 2026 · Generated 09:42 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power firmed across the forward curve at the 6 October close, with gas leading. Washington is demanding a meaningful cut to Iran's enrichment capacity while Houthi attacks in Yemen and on Saudi Arabia kept supply risk in focus. EU gas storage remains far below its usual level for early October.

UK Gas▲

NBP seasons firmed into the 6 October close, Sum-27 up about 4%

UK Power▲

Followed gas higher, Sum-27 up about 4%

EU Storage▲

72.8% full, 16.8pp below the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Gulf supply risk and thin EU storage are supporting prices, with LNG flows through Hormuz still well down.

UK gas Sum-27

4.87p/kWh

+3.9% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

11.20p/kWh

+4.2% day-on-day

EU gas storage

72.8% full

16.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

75.56EUR/MWh

+3.4% on the day

Brent crude

100.58$/bbl

+0.3% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Washington demands a meaningful cut to Iran's enrichment capacity as Houthi attacks in Yemen and on Saudi Arabia keep Gulf supply risk high.
US sets a condition for ending the war
US vice president JD Vance said Iran must make a meaningful reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity for the US to end its months-long war, and that Washington is unsure how Tehran makes decisions in negotiations (market news email, 7 October).
Houthi attacks widen the risk
Yemen said the Iran-backed Houthis attacked Aden International Airport with ballistic missiles and drones early on 7 October, with one missile landing near the runway minutes before a flight was due. The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile north of Riyadh, and fighting in Yemen has intensified on several fronts this week (market news email, 7 October).
Hormuz LNG flows remain well down
Oilprice.com headlines on 7 October say LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz are still down by more than 75% despite a rebound, and that Brent moved back above $100 as Houthis hit Saudi infrastructure. Brent settled at 100.58 $/bbl on 6 October, up 0.3% on the day.
2 · PRICES
UK gas led a broad rise across the forward curve at the last close, with UK power following gas higher.
Close on 6 October: gas leads the rise
UK gas rose in every season shown, up 3.9% for Sum-27 to 4.87 p/kWh and 4.1% for Win-27 to 4.69 p/kWh, with the gains fading to 0.6% by Win-29. UK power followed, with Sum-27 up 4.2% to 11.20 p/kWh and Win-27 up 2.2% to 11.30 p/kWh.
TTF is background for UK readers
TTF prompt closed at 75.56 EUR/MWh on 6 October, up 3.4% from 73.05 on 5 October. EU carbon edged up to 84.44 EUR/t from 83.53.
Gas sets the price on the grid
At 09:40 on 7 October gas-fired plant supplied 12.07 GW, about 35% of the 34.23 GW demand, with wind at 5.38 GW (about 16%) and imports a net 6.19 GW (about 18%). With gas on the margin for much of the day, UK power tends to move with UK gas.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is still only about 73% full, well below where it normally stands in early October.
Fill level against the norm
EU gas storage was 72.8% full on 5 October, the latest day published, against a five-year norm of 89.6% for 7 October, a gap of about 17 percentage points. The EU target for winter 2026/27 is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to go down to 80%.
Refill pace
Storage rose from 72.0% on 1 October to 72.8% on 5 October, roughly 0.2 points a day. Reaching 90% by 1 December would need about 0.3 points a day, so a slow refill into winter adds to the support for prices, particularly with Hormuz LNG flows still well down.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 6 October 2026

6 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	11.20	+4.21%	4.87	+3.93%
Win-27	11.30	+2.19%	4.69	+4.08%
Sum-28	7.63	+2.01%	3.08	+3.53%
Win-28	8.40	+1.79%	3.30	+2.66%
Sum-29	7.10	+1.81%	2.52	+0.89%
Win-29	7.88	+1.60%	2.83	+0.59%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 6 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)12.07 GW35.3%

Interconnectors6.19 GW18.1%

Wind5.38 GW15.7%

Nuclear4.01 GW11.7%

Biomass3.25 GW9.5%

Solar1.03 GW3.0%

Hydro + pumped0.85 GW2.5%

Other1.45 GW4.2%

As of 7 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

72.8%

5yr norm

89.6%

-16.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 5 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.44%JKM▲+0.64%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.01%UK carbon▲+0.38%EU carbon▲+1.09%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▲+0.40%GBPEUR▲+0.08%Gold▲+0.58%TTF▲+3.44%JKM▲+0.64%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.01%UK carbon▲+0.38%EU carbon▲+1.09%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▲+0.40%GBPEUR▲+0.08%Gold▲+0.58%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.44%JKM▲+0.64%

OiliBrent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.01%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.38%EU carbon▲+1.09%

FTSE 100i▲+0.42%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.40%GBPEUR▲+0.08%

Goldi▲+0.58%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 6 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.